Real Valladolid vs Barcelona Prediction: Barca to win but hosts’ to keep it close

Barcelona were involved in an instant classic on Wednesday night when they played out a 3-3 draw with Inter Milan in the Champions League. Ahead of the second leg, they travel to the Estadio José Zorrilla for a La Liga match on Saturday night. Kick-off is set for 20:00 with Premier Sports 2 the channel to tune into.

Our La Liga Betting Expert is here with his preview of the match and Mark expects the Catalan giants to win but expects it to be closer than many expect. Check out his preview below along with his Real Valladolid vs Barcelona Predictions...

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It's bottom against top in La Liga this Saturday, as already relegated Real Valladolid entertain title-chasing Barcelona at the Estadio José Zorrilla. 

On paper, this is a complete mismatch between one of the worst teams in the history of the Spanish top flight, and a free-scoring Barça side that remains in treble contention. 

The scoreline was 7-0 in favour of Hansi Flick's men when the teams met back in August, and in truth Real Valladolid are even worse now than they were then. However, they're likely to be spared the full force of the visiting team, with the Barça boss expected to rest many of his star players. 

If Flick could have picked a fixture to have sandwiched in between the two legs of a Champions League semi-final, not to mention two Clásicos in the space of a fortnight, it would probably be this one. 

He looks certain to take the opportunity to give his key men a breather, three days on from a breathless Champions League clash with Inter Milan which ended 3-3 at the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys. 

Barça fans would have left with a range of emotions after the first half of a tie that remains very finely poised. Despite falling two goals behind, they had the better of the game, with 17-year-old Lamine Yamal in sublime form on a big night once more, but Wojciech Szczęsny failed to save any of the three shots on target he faced. 

For all their attacking brilliance, their remains a slight vulnerability to Barcelona at the back, particularly in the full-back areas currently given the injuries to Alejandro Balde and Jules Koundé. 

They've only won one of their last nine matches by more than a single goal, which does point to a slight dip in form, but they remain on course to win the Spanish title, with a four-point advantage on Real Madrid with only five games to go. The sides meet in a crunch clash at the Estadi Olímpic next weekend, and Barça will be determined to at least maintain their current lead heading into that match, by claiming three points on Saturday. 

Real Valladolid's current form suggests that is a very likely scenario. They've only taken one point from their last 14 league games in a disastrous second half of the season, to go with a pretty unconvincing first half. 

The writing was on the wall as long ago as January, when they lost a couple of their better players, and their season has completely unravelled since then. 

They've already sacked two coaches this season, with Paulo Pezzolano and Diego Cocca both departing, leaving Álvaro Rubio in his second stint as caretaker boss. The 46-year-old has overseen a seven-game losing streak heading into this game, with their relegation mathematically confirmed by a 5-1 defeat at Real Betis last time out. 

They have at least already bettered the lowest ever points tally in the era of three points for a win in La Liga. That was Sporting Gijón's miserable tally of 13 in the 1997/98 season, but no side has picked up less than 20 in the 21st Century, and it's hard to see them reaching that mark, given they currently only have 16 points to their name. 

Real Valladolid have let in 28 more goals than any other team in La Liga this season, including 22 in their five matches against top-three opponents so far. 

Team News: 

The home team still have an injury doubt over their first choice keeper Karl Hein who has had a busy season on loan from Arsenal. André Ferreira is likely to continue as a result here. 

They've also been hit by three fresh injury problems over the past fortnight, with Javi Sánchez, Joseph Aidoo and Henrique Silva all set to miss this game. 

Meanwhile, Barcelona will need to make one enforced change from the side that started against Inter, with Koundé picking up a hamstring injury in that match. With Balde, Robert Lewandowski, Marc Casadó and Marc Bernal also sidelined, there's not huge depth for Flick to call upon, but the Barça boss is still expected to rotate heavily. 

He has confirmed that Marc-André ter Stegen will start in goal after a long injury lay-off. Andreas Christensen, Ronald Araújo, Gavi, Eric García, Ansu Fati and Fermín López are also likely to rotate in. Youngsters Héctor Fort, Pau Víctor and Pablo Torre are also in contention for starts, with the visitors likely to have a very strong bench at the José Zorrilla, one they'd rather not have to call upon. 

Real Valladolid vs Barcelona Odds

Barcelona head into the game as the 1/7 favourites to record a fourth league victory on the bounce. You can back the Draw at 8/1, while Real Valladolid are on offer at 14/1 to spring a surprise and stun the league leaders by winning the game. 

There's plenty for punters to weigh up here, and there's little doubt that under normal circumstances, Barça would have cruised to victory. If you're still expecting that to be the case, you can back the visitors to score over 3.5 goals at 6/5, while Barcelona -2.00 Handicap is available at 1/1. 

If you fancy the home team to at least get on the scoresheet, you can back Both teams to score at 8/11. Odds of 4/1 for Real Valladolid to win either half may also appeal, while you can back Real Valladolid or Draw at 4/1 in the Double Chance market. 

Ferran Torres is the 7/2 favourite to score first, although it's possible that he could be one of the players to rotate out. Fermín does look almost certain to start the game and he's usually a goal threat from midfield which could make him a good option at 7/1 to score first or 8/5 to score anytime. 

From a home perspective, winger Raúl Moro is often their brightest attacking spark. He was on target in Real Valladolid's last outing in front of their own fans, a 3-2 defeat to Osasuna, and the 22-year-old is available at 14/1 to score first and 4/1 to score anytime. 

Bet 1 - Draw/Barcelona (Half-time/Full-time) @ 18/5 

While Barcelona do have some good options for rotation in midfield and central defence, that's less the case at full-back, while there is a huge drop-off between the level of wingers Raphinha and Lamine Yamal, and their likely deputies who have barely played this season. 

While this is still a game that Barcelona should win, regardless of who makes Flick's final starting lineup, Real Valladolid might be capable of at least holding the league leaders until the interval. 

They have scored five goals in their last three matches, including two against Atlético Madrid which represents a slight improvement at one end of the pitch, but their defence is still very poor, and the visitors will have more than enough quality on the bench to turn to if they need to find a winner in the second half. 

Given that, I like the look of Draw/Barcelona in the Half-time/Full-time market at 18/5, a winning bet in the Catalan club's last three league games. 

Bet 2 - Real Valladolid +3.00 Handicap @ 8/11 

Barcelona have won their last three league games by just one goal, and with their star players likely to be rested here, there's much less chance of this turning into a cricket score than would otherwise have been the case. 

As bad as Real Valladolid are, they may just benefit from playing without any real pressure here, and they could produce one of their better performances of the season if they can get a foothold in the game early. 

The visitors will just be keen to get the three points and conserve as much energy as possible ahead of two huge games next week. Flick will want to use the likes of Pedri, Yamal and Raphinha as little as possible, if at all, and I can see the home team at least keeping the score down, so I'm backing Real Valladolid +3.00 Handicap at 8/11.