Real Madrid vs Valencia Prediction: Back the Visitors to have 9+ shots at decent odds

LaLiga TV is the channel you need to be tuned into on Saturday afternoon if you want to enjoy the current Spanish and European champions. Kick-off is set for 15:15.

Our La Liga tipster knows that the home side have one eye on the Champions League tie in midweek and that could lead to the visitors having a better day than you might expect. He has two bets for this match and you can check out his preview and Real Madrid vs Valencia Predictions below...

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

With Atlético Madrid's challenge fading, the title race in Spain looks set to come down to a straight fight between Barcelona and Real Madrid. Los Blancos have three points to make up on their eternal rivals, and there is little margin for error here at home against relegation-threatened Valencia.  

Barça's 4-0 win at the Bernabéu in El Clásico back in October means the Catalans are all but guaranteed to end the season with the superior head-to-head record. That takes precedence over goal difference in La Liga in terms of who finishes higher, so Los Blancos are already effectively two games back on the leaders who right now don't look like dropping points.  

That can't be said of Real Madrid who have been utterly unconvincing in recent weeks. Their supporters have frequently made their feelings heard, and their Copa del Rey semi-final second leg against Real Sociedad at the Bernabéu on Tuesday night featured a comedy of defensive errors from the home team.  

David Alaba scored two own goals, and he wasn't even the worst of Real Madrid's defenders on the night, with Lucas Vázquez and Eduardo Camavinga both badly exposed at full-back in a game that ended in a 4-4 draw after 30 minutes of extra time. 

That match came just three days after Carlo Ancelotti's side had been made to sweat by lowly Leganés who led 2-1 at the break, and felt hard done by as some very questionable decisions went against them in a game that ended 3-2 in Madrid's favour. 

Those performances were only really a continuation of what we saw from Los Blancos just prior to the international break, with the overwhelming sense now being that the club made a mistake by not diving into the transfer market in January, when they had the opportunity to seek cover for long-term injury absentees Dani Carvajal and Éder Militão. 

Despite all that is bad about Real Madrid right now, they remain very much alive and fighting on three different fronts, heading into the business end of the season when they are usually so strong.  

Up against a Valencia side that is yet to register an away victory in La Liga this season, the expectation will certainly be that Ancelotti's men chalk up another three points here.  

However, Valencia are a much-improved outfit under Carlos Corberán. The 41-year-old has done an excellent job since swapping the Hawthorns for Mestalla at the turn of the year, with Los Che's survival prospects looking considerably brighter thanks to five wins from their last six home games in the Spanish top flight.  

While he hasn't found the recipe for a road win, Valencia have been much more competitive on the road under Corberán, with score draws at Villarreal, Osasuna and Girona in their last three away matches.  

There are a number of factors which have contributed to the transformation, but the common theme is that of young players growing in confidence and starting to play with a bit more belief. That has certainly been true in midfield, with Corberán showing more faith in 21-year-old Javi Guerra who has returned to the starting lineup on a consistent basis, while Aston Villa loanee Enzo Barrenechea has been outstanding in recent weeks.  

January addition Umar Sadiq has also added a much needed goal threat up front, with the Nigerian netting four times in his last six matches.  

Valencia should travel to the Spanish capital with an element of belief as a result, although they have lost all four matches against top-three opponents since Corberán's appointment, avoiding defeat in their other 11 games in all competitions under the guidance of the former West Brom boss.  

Team News:  

Real Madrid are dealing with something of a goalkeeping crisis heading into this game. Thibaut Courtois has been ruled out again, but back-up Andriy Lunin is also struggling with an injury, so 19-year-old Fran González is on standby to potentially make his senior debut. 

Carvajal and Militão also remain sidelined, while Dani Ceballos and Ferland Mendy are rated doubtful. Ancelotti may also consider resting one or two of his regulars ahead of the trip to the Emirates in the Champions League on Tuesday. 

The visitors have problems of their own, with José Gayà, Dimitri Foulquier and Luis Rioja all picking up their fifth bookings of the season last time out, resulting in suspensions for this game. 

They are also missing Iván Jaime and Thierry Correia to injuries. Valencia set up in their regular 4-2-3-1 system last time out in the 1-0 win over Mallorca, but may switch to a back three for this game, with Jesús Vázquez and Englishman Max Aarons potentially coming into the side as wing-backs. 

Real Madrid vs Valencia Odds

Real Madrid are priced at 3/10 to win this, and despite some unconvincing performances, they have still picked up all three points in their last three league matches. You can back the Draw at 9/2, while Valencia are available at 17/2. 

The last six league meetings on this ground have all ended with Los Blancos winning by at least two goals. You can back Real Madrid -1.0 Handicap at 5/6 if you're expecting a repeat here, while Over 37.5 bookings points may also appeal at 1/1 given four of the last five meetings between these clubs have featured a red card. 

If you fancy Ancelotti's side to turn on the style ahead of their Champions League date with Arsenal, you can back Over 2.5 home team goals at 11/10, while Real Madrid and Both teams to score looks pretty good at 13/8, a winning bet in each of the home team's last three matches in La Liga. 

Draw or Valencia is on offer at 23/10 in the Double Chance market, while you can back the visitors to win either half at 3/1. 

Having been rested in midweek, Kylian Mbappé looks the safest option in the goalscorer markets for this game, with at least one of Vinícius Júnior, Rodrygo and Jude Bellingham expected to drop to the bench. You can back Mbappé to score first at 11/4, while he's available at 4/6 to score anytime. 

Bet 1 - Both teams to score @ 10/11 

While Real Madrid are still just about in a position to field a competitive back four in the biggest games, with Fede Valverde likely to drop in to right-back against Arsenal on Tuesday for example, they have very little depth in defence now and look weak whenever they have to make changes. 

The midfield is also an issue, with some relatively limited teams playing through them much too easily in recent weeks, and that has to offer encouragement to Valencia who have some good options in the centre of the park. 

With Sadiq in good form up top for Los Che, and given Real Madrid conceded four on this ground against a low-scoring Real Sociedad side only a few days ago, I'm backing Both teams to score at 10/11. 

Bet 2 - Valencia 9+ shots @ 5/4 

Real Madrid's current struggles are also highlighted by the number of shots they are allowing opposing teams to have. In their last five matches in all competitions, Rayo Vallecano had 20 shots, Atlético Madrid had 17, Villarreal had 23, Leganés had 10 and Real Sociedad had 11. 

While it's true that two of those games went to extra time, those are alarming numbers for the defending Spanish and European champions to have, and they point to problems that go beyond one or two unconvincing defenders. 

Arsenal fans will certainly be encouraged by those stats ahead of their Champions League quarter-final, but even Valencia will sense weakness in Real Madrid right now. 

Whether that translates into them getting anything from this game is still questionable, but I like the look of Valencia 9+ shots at 5/4.