Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction: Modric at 5/1 anytime feels value

Carlo Ancelotti's side are in the middle of a two-legged Madrid-derby in the Champions League but the fixture computer seems to have been relatively kind as they have a home match in La Liga this weekend when they entertain Real Valladolid. This one kicks off at 15:15 on Sunday afternoon and will be broadcast live on La Liga TV.

Mark Sochon as per usual is in situ with the Betfred Insights look at this one. Check out his Real Madrid vs Real Valladolid Predictions in his full match preview for us below...

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

There's a second Madrid derby of the week at the Santiago Bernabéu on Sunday, with Rayo Vallecano making the short trip across the Spanish capital. 

These sides played out a thrilling 3-3 draw in Vallecas back in December, with Real Madrid coming back from two down to lead the game, before Isi Palazón levelled things up for Rayo. 

It's likely that none of Rayo's scorers that day will be in a condition to start this game however, and with some rotation also expected from Carlo Ancelotti, this could end up being a very different type of match. 

Inevitably, Los Blancos will have one eye on Wednesday's trip to the Estadio Metropolitano which will see them defend a 2-1 lead in their Champions League tie against Atlético Madrid. In a game of great goals, but few clear chances, Rodrygo and Brahim Díaz gave their team the edge on Tuesday night, but it's still very much all to play for heading into the second leg. 

Before that though, Real Madrid really need to put three points on the board here. They've been wobbling in La Liga of late, with just one win from their last five games. They've dropped below both Barcelona and Atleti as a result, with a 2-1 defeat away to an Isco-inspired Real Betis their latest setback. 

Unlike some of their other recent league games, there were no refereeing controversies or poor decisions that contributed to that defeat. They were beaten by the better side on the day, with Betis firing in twice as many shots across the 90 minutes. 

Madrid's league record at the Bernabéu this season remains a good one though. Their average of 2.58 points per home game is the best in the division, and excluding their clashes with Barça and Atlético, they've won every single home match. 

Nine of those 10 victories came with at least a two-goal winning margin, so this is still going to be a really tough assignment for an under-strength Rayo Vallecano side. 

The visitors are having a terrific season overall, defying pre-season relegation concerns to mount a surprise European challenge under Iñigo Pérez. Despite only collecting one point from their last three games, they remain in seventh place heading into matchday 27. 

While they still take risks and look to play on the front foot at home, as we saw in the meeting with Real Madrid in December, Rayo have been a bit more conservative on their travels and a solid defence has been a key ingredient in their success this term. 

They've only conceded 0.77 goals per game on average away from home, an exceptional record that has contributed to Pérez's side avoiding defeat in nine of their 13 road fixtures. 

Their most recent away game was against Barcelona, and even the free-scoring Catalans struggled to break Rayo down in open play, with the game's only goal coming from the penalty spot via Robert Lewandowski. 

Rayo do have significant limitations at the other end of the pitch though, particularly at the moment with a number of their main attacking threats sidelined. The absence of anything like a convincing striker is their main flaw, with winger Jorge de Frutos their current top scorer on just four league goals. 

Team News: 

Jude Bellingham will return to the Real Madrid lineup on Sunday, with the Englishman having missed three of his team's last four matches in all competitions due to suspensions. 

Luka Modrić also looks certain to rotate into the midfield, but Ancelotti will have some thinking to do otherwise as he looks to manage the workload of his players ahead of the Champions League derby with Atleti. He's still expected to start at least two of Kylian Mbappé, Rodrygo and Vinícius Júnior in this game, but we may see a number of substitutions early in the second half. 

Antonio Rüdiger may be rested in defence, while the hosts are missing Dani Ceballos to injury, as well as long-term absentees Éder Militão and Dani Carvajal. 

As for Rayo Vallecano, they are missing a number of key players which will make their task even more challenging on Sunday. With De Frutos suspended, and Sergio Camello, Isi Palazón and Randy Nteka all injured, they are very short on attacking options. 

They've also been hit by a major blow in defence, with centre-back Abdul Mumin suffering a knee injury in the 1-1 draw against Sevilla last weekend that's likely to see him miss the remainder of the season. 

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Odds

Real Madrid are the 1/4 favourites to win this game. The Draw is priced at 5/1, while Rayo are available at 10/1 to secure a famous victory at the home of their big city neighbours. 

If you're expecting a repeat of the goalfest we saw between these clubs earlier in the season, you can back Both teams to score at 1/1, while Over 3.5 goals is priced at 11/8. 

Punters should be aware however, that Rayo's away league games this term average just 1.54 goals in total. Under 2.5 goals is on offer at 6/4 here, while you can back Real Madrid and Under 3.5 goals at 11/10. 

Ancelotti's starting lineup could feature one or two surprises, and it's doubtful that key players like Mbappé and Vinícius will complete the full 90 minutes. Therefore, alternative options such as Brahim Díaz may be worth considering in the goalscorer markets, with the in-form Moroccan international priced at 7/1 to score first and 21/10 to score anytime. 

Having missed so many games of late, Bellingham stands a very good chance of playing the full match, and he's priced 6/1 to score first and 7/4 to score anytime. 

From a visiting perspective, winger Álvaro García could be the main threat and he's on offer at 11/2 to get on the scoresheet. 

Bet 1 - Real Madrid to win to nil @ 21/20 

While there could be one or two cracks in a rotated Real Madrid defence, it's still very hard to see where a Rayo goal is going to come from given their selection issues. 

They are missing three of their four regulars in the most advanced positions. The players that are available for this match have scored a combined total of just 11 league goals this term, and they are now effectively onto their fourth choice striker with 33-year-old Sergi Guardiola the only viable option up top. 

Los Blancos have not slipped up once this season at home to teams outside of the top three, and I'm backing Real Madrid to win to nil at 21/20. 

Bet 2 - Luka Modrić to score anytime @ 5/1 

With Ceballos sidelined, Modrić should start his fourth La Liga match in a row, and even at the age of 39 he remains a classy performer. The Croatian scored an absolute screamer against Girona fortnight ago, and that was his fourth goal already in 2025. 

He's scored at a rate of just under a goal every 200 minutes since the turn of the year in all competitions, good going for a midfield player. He should get plenty of license to roam forwards here, with Aurélien Tchouaméni or Eduardo Camavinga likely to act as the holding midfielder alongside him. 

Given that, I think there's value in backing Modrić to score anytime at long odds of 5/1 in this game.