Real Madrid vs Mallorca Prediction: Back Real to win low-scoring game

The Supercopa de Espana remains in Saudi Arabia as the reigning Spanish and European Champions Real Madrid enter the fray to take on Mallorca. As of the time of writing, there is no live UK TV coverage for this match.

Our Spanish-based football expert Mark Sochon previews the action and picks out his two Best Bets for the game as he gives us his Real Madrid vs Mallorca Predictions...

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

The second semi-final in the Supercopa de España sees last season’s league champions Real Madrid face Copa del Rey runners-up Mallorca on Thursday. 

It’s only the third time that Mallorca have been involved in the competition, with the Balearic Islanders previously Super Cup winners in 1998 and runners-up in 2003. Real Madrid meanwhile are the holders, after they defeated Barcelona 4-1 in last season’s final. 

Faced with a defensive injury crisis and a packed fixture list which is likely to see them involved in an additional Champions League knockout round this season, a trip to Saudi Arabia is probably not what Carlo Ancelotti and his team really needed this week. 

The Italian does tend to take the competition seriously though and he’ll be happy enough with the form his side takes into this match, with six wins from the last seven overall. 

Los Blancos have won both matches so far in 2025. Despite a red card for Vinícius Júnior, they somehow clawed their way back from a goal and a man down, to win 2-1 at Valencia in La Liga last Friday, with Luka Modrić and Jude Bellingham firing in decisive late strikes. 

They backed that up with a comfortable 5-0 win at minnows Deportiva Minera in the Copa del Rey on Monday. Ancelotti opted to rest a number of regulars for that game, but the result was never in doubt, with Arda Güler scoring twice in a convincing victory. 

In the final third, things have been looking more positive in recent weeks, with Real Madrid scoring 23 goals in their last seven games. Bellingham has really hit form again after an unconvincing start to the campaign, and there have been signs that the Madrid boss is getting closer to finding the right formula to get the best out of his star-studded attack. 

This fixture will be a test of just how much progress has been made on that front. Mallorca are one of the most organised sides in La Liga at the back, with six clean sheets helping them to 6th place at the midway point in the campaign. 

That’s a major improvement on their final position of 15th last season. Jagoba Arrasate replaced Javier Aguirre in the dugout in the summer, and the former Osasuna boss is clearly doing a good job in Palma, with back-to-back league wins to end 2024 ensuring they remain on course for an unlikely European challenge. 

It wasn’t exactly the start to 2025 that Mallorca fans would have been hoping for though. Perhaps with one eye on this competition, Arrasate shuffled his pack and fielded a number of fringe players for the Copa del Rey trip to third tier Pontevedra. An abject performance from the visitors contributed to a 3-0 defeat, and there can be little doubt that we’ll see a stronger Mallorca starting lineup in Jeddah on Thursday. 

That should include a return for targetman Vedat Muriqi. The Kosovo striker is a real handful up top and he has a taste for the big occasion, with two of his three league goals so far this term coming against Real Madrid and Barcelona. 

Los Blancos could only manage a 1-1 draw at Son Moix when the clubs met on the opening La Liga matchday of this season, with Muriqi cancelling out Rodrygo’s early strike. That game was fairly typical of recent meetings, with Real Madrid struggling to break open a resolute defence, and the side from the Spanish capital haven’t scored more than once in any of their last four games against Mallorca. 

Team News: 

The big news from a Real Madrid perspective is that Vinícius is available for this game. The Brazilian had to wait until Tuesday evening to finally learn his fate after last week’s red card at Mestalla, and he will now serve a two game ban in La Liga following the conclusion of the Supercopa. 

The presence of David Alaba in the squad for this competition is also significant, with the Austrian returning after a year on the sidelines. He’s highly unlikely to be ready to start though, while fellow defenders Dani Carvajal and Éder Militão remain out with their own ACL injuries. 

As for Mallorca, they should have a full squad to pick from, with midfielder Samú Costa making a late recovery from his injury to join up with the squad in Saudi Arabia. 

Arrasate must decide whether to go with top scorer Cyle Larin in attack as well as Muriqi, or whether to opt for a slightly more conservative approach. 

Real Madrid vs Mallorca Odds

Real Madrid are the 1/3 favourites to win the game in 90 minutes, with this one to head straight to penalties in the event of a draw. You can back that to be the case at 18/5, while Mallorca are priced at 13/2 to win in regulation time. 

Both teams to score is on offer at 4/5, but given the low scoring nature of recent meetings, going with Both teams to score - No at 10/11 or Under 2.5 goals at 11/8 may offer better value. 

Los Blancos are priced at 13/10 to win the game to nil. You can also back Real Madrid -1.00 Handicap at 1/1, while Draw or Mallorca is on offer at 2/1 in the Double chance market. 

Having scored in six of his last eight Real Madrid appearances, Bellingham looks good at 15/8 to score anytime here, while odds of 6/1 for the Englishman to score last may also tempt some punters given his knack for scoring late goals. 

Kylian Mbappé has also hit some form in recent weeks and he’s the 5/6 favourite in the Anytime goalscorer market. You can also back Vinícius to score anytime at 13/10, while Muriqi is priced at 13/5 to score for the second time this season against the defending Spanish and European champions. 

Bet 1 - Real Madrid & Under 3.5 goals @ 6/5 

While recent Real Madrid matches have tended to be relatively high scoring affairs, this could be a good deal tighter in keeping with the recent history of this fixture. 

Mallorca’s Copa del Rey semi-final and final last season both went to penalties, and even at kick-off on Thursday, they may have one eye on potentially frustrating Real Madrid for 90 minutes and taking this game to another shootout.  

An early goal for Carlo Ancelotti’s side would force them to come out more, but Mallorca are strong enough at the back to at least get a foothold in this game. That being said, Real Madrid have all of their attacking stars available, and the favourites should be capable of finding a way through at some point in the match. 

Given that, I’m backing Real Madrid and Under 3.5 goals at 6/5.