Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction: Second 45 to be the highest scoring

Life hasn't been grand for Real Madrid over the past few days and there will be no Champions League success this season but there is still hope domestically. This one kicks-off at 20:00 on Premier Sports 2.

As always our La Liga Betting Expert is on hand to cover Real Madrid and he puts together his two Best Bets for the match in his in-depth match preview. You can check out his Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Predictions below...

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There's a top-four showdown in La Liga on Sunday, as two sides who endured contrasting fortunes against British opposition in Europe in midweek meet.  

Real Madrid crashed out of the Champions League on Wednesday night against Arsenal, with not even a hint of a 'remontada', with the Gunners doing a good job of seeing out the tie against Europe's comeback kings.  

There was better news for Athletic Club on Thursday in the Europa League, with the Basque side beating Rangers 2-0 at San Mamés to set up a mouth-watering semi-final against Manchester United.  

Both sides must now focus on their domestic commitments, with a busy week ahead including a full midweek fixture list in La Liga, while Real Madrid are in Copa del Rey final action against Barcelona next Saturday.  

Reports in the English media that Ancelotti will leave after that game have not been backed up by their Spanish counterparts, and while the likelihood remains that the Italian will depart in the summer, he should get the opportunity to oversee at least the remainder of the domestic campaign.  

There is plenty to play for still, with Real Madrid currently trailing Barcelona by four points in the title race. With a league clasico also still to be played, they are by no means out of the running, but it's abundantly clear that they are going to need to find an extra gear.  

Los Blancos have been mostly getting by in La Liga without playing particularly well, with four wins from their last five league fixtures. All of those victories came by one-goal margins, including their 1-0 triumph at Alavés last weekend which came despite a red card for Kylian Mbappé for a dreadful challenge in just the 38th minute.  

With Mbappé also picking up an injury in midweek, we could see Ancelotti revert to the system from last season when Jude Bellingham thrived in a more advanced role, behind a front two of Rodrygo and Vinícius Júnior. There is certainly a bit of pressure growing on the two Brazilians to step up, with Vinícius the subject of whistles from the Bernabéu faithful in recent weeks.  

This is not really the kind of fixture that Real Madrid would have wanted so soon after the Arsenal defeat, as they look to get back into their groove ahead of next weekend's cup final. Athletic are a very consistent side that always competes well, and they've not lost a single league game this season by more than a single goal which is testament to how tough this could be for an under-performing Madrid.  

The Basques are not just looking good in the Europa League where they're now within touching distance of a hometown final in Bilbao, but they are very much on course to qualify for next season's Champions League.  

With the top five in La Liga set to qualify, Athletic hold a nine-point advantage on Real Betis in sixth place heading into matchday 32. They're in such a strong position, that Ernesto Valverde has already started to make wholesale changes in some league fixtures, including in last weekend's home clash with Rayo Vallecano.  

The Athletic boss made nine alterations to the side that had started the first leg of their Europa League tie in Glasgow, but they still won the game 3-1, although all the goals did come from players introduced off the bench, with Oihan Sancet continuing his extraordinary season with another brace, while Nico Williams was also on target.  

Those two players also grabbed the goals in the second leg against Rangers, and Valverde must decide whether to go strong here, or whether to hold players back for a considerably more winnable Wednesday night fixture against Las Palmas.  

Team News:  

Mbappé was fortunate to only receive a one-game ban for his red card last weekend, but he's likely to miss at least the next two league games due to an ankle sprain in any case. Éder Militão, Ferland Mendy and Dani Carvajal are also sidelined again due to injuries for the home team.  

We could see Ancelotti utilise a midfield diamond in this match, a structure that worked well during the 2023/24 campaign. The Italian must decide whether to use Fede Valverde in the centre of the park, or at right-back, potentially up against Spain winger Nico Williams.  

Athletic are expected to make a number of changes following their Europa League match again though, so it's possible that Nico may only make the bench. Valverde has a full squad to pick from, so he's not short on rotation options, with left-back Yuri Berchiche returning to fitness over the past few days.  

Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Odds

Real Madrid are the 4/6 favourites to win this game. You can back Athletic, who won the reverse fixture 2-1 in December, to complete the double over Los Blancos at 4/1, while the Draw is priced at 3/1.  

If you're expecting Los Blancos to make a strong response to their defeat against Arsenal, you can back Real Madrid -1.00 Handicap at 7/4, while the home team are priced at 7/5 to score in both halves. You can also back Real Madrid to win and Over 2.5 goals at 7/5.  

Alternatively, Draw or Athletic is on offer at 6/5 in the Double Chance market. Meanwhile, you can back the visitors to score over 1.5 goals at 5/2.  

Without Mbappé, the home fans will be looking to their other attacking stars to deliver. Vinícius is the 4/1 favourite to score first, while he's on offer at 13/10 to score anytime. You can also back Bellingham to score anytime at 2/1, while Rodrygo is on offer in the same market at the same price.  

There's more uncertainty as to who will start for the visitors, but it's likely that Gorka Guruzeta will rotate into the striker role. He's priced at 9/1 to score first and 3/1 to score anytime.  

Bet 1 - Real Madrid over 0.5 goals & Jude Bellingham 1+ shots on target @ 4/5  

With Athletic's priorities so clearly lying elsewhere, Real Madrid may be spared the full force of the visiting side, but Los Leones are still capable of being very awkward opponents even if they do rotate heavily again.  

20 years have passed since they last won at the Bernabéu though, and you have to anticipate some kind of reaction from Real Madrid after the events of the past fortnight.  

The change in structure should at least give the home team a slightly more balanced feel, and Bellingham should be one of the main beneficiaries, with his goal threat increased when Mbappé doesn't play and he's got a bit more freedom to take up the excellent positions that contributed to the Englishman scoring 19 goals in La Liga last season. 

Given that, I'm using the Bet Builder to back Real Madrid over 0.5 goals and Jude Bellingham 1+ shots on target at 4/5. 

Bet 2 - Highest Scoring Half - 2nd Half @ 1/1 

Athletic generally look to keep things tight when they travel, and their 15 road games in La Liga so far this season have served up just 13 first-half goals in total. 63% of their away goals have come after the break, and with the possibility that the likes of Sancet and Nico Williams drop out of the starting lineup here, we may not see much of an attacking threat from the visitors before the interval. 

This game should open up in the second half though. Draws are no use to Real Madrid at the moment as they look to hunt down Barça in the title race, and they will need to throw caution to the wind at some point, if they fail to find an early breakthrough. 

That could also open up opportunities for Athletic to strike on the break though, and I'm backing the second half in the Highest Scoring Half market at 1/1.