Real Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction: Declan Rice can test Thibaut Courtois yet again

Arsenal's 3-0 scoreline from the first leg of this Champions League tie has to go down as one of the most surprising the competition has seen in recent memory. The Gunners make the trip over to the Spanish Capital on Wednesday evening (20:00, TNT Sports 1) looking to secure safe passage through to the semi-finals.

Our Madrid-based Spanish football expert Mark Sochon isn't expecting Real to perform a great turnaround but does expect them to give it a right good go. You can check out his match preview below along with a couple of betting tips as we go through his Real Madrid vs Arsenal Predictions here on Betfred Insights...

Real Madrid are bidding to stage what, even by their standards, would be a miraculous Champions League comeback on Wednesday night when they welcome Arsenal to the Santiago Bernabéu. 

The Gunners were dominant in last week's first leg. Two blistering free-kicks from Declan Rice put them in control of the tie, before Mikel Merino fired in from the edge of the box, to leave the holders on the brink of a quarter-final exit. 

While all the goals were courtesy of brilliant strikes, Arsenal were comfortably the better team on the night overall, and they hit the target on 11 occasions in the match, with Real Madrid only testing David Raya three times. 

Their ability to dominate in the middle of the park was key, with Rice, Martin Ødegaard and Thomas Partey overpowering an under-strength visiting midfield. A miserable night for Los Blancos in that department was capped late on by a red card for Eduardo Camavinga who is now suspended for the second leg. 

Any suggestion that Arsenal might have thought the job was done in this tie, was quashed by Mikel Arteta's team selection at the weekend though. The likes of Ødegaard, Merino and Bukayo Saka dropped to the bench for the visit of Brentford, with a 1-1 draw leaving them even further behind Liverpool in a Premier League title race that is as good as over. 

That situation does at least leave Arsenal in a position where they can put all their eggs in one basket, and put absolutely everything into their push for a first ever Champions League crown. 

Their primary goal on Wednesday will be to keep their cool and handle the occasion without succumbing to the Bernabéu pressure cooker, in the way that so many European sides have done over the past few years, even when defending significant leads. 

While this Gunners side has blossomed into one of the strongest in England, it is worth noting that they are not experienced Champions League campaigners yet, with their appearance in last season's competition, their first at this level in seven years.  

It's 17 years since Arsenal last reached a Champions League semi-final, so Real Madrid will be hoping to use their own vast experience of big knockout nights in this competition to their advantage in the second leg. 

Truth be told, the main case for Real Madrid having a chance of turning this tie around lies with what they've done in previous years, as opposed to anything we've seen from them this season. 

Carlo Ancelotti has problems to address across the pitch, largely due to depth issues with a squad that should have been strengthened in January following a couple of major early season injuries. 

The situation is perhaps best summed up by the plight of Fede Valverde, with the versatile Uruguayan currently filling in at right-back in the big games due to Dani Carvajal's injury and the error-prone nature of his back-up Lucas Vázquez. However, taking Valverde out of the midfield, leaves Real Madrid looking weak in that department as we saw clear evidence of at the Emirates last week. 

It's a Catch-22 situation for Ancelotti who has received plenty of criticism in recent weeks, but is largely paying the price for the club's inability to act when reinforcements were clearly needed. 

Los Blancos head into this game after a 1-0 win at Alavés in La Liga on Saturday. They took the lead in Vitoria through Camavinga, but things took an unexpected turn on 38 minutes when Kylian Mbappé saw red for a horror challenge, although his teammates did manage to battle on with 10 men to secure an important three points. 

Team News: 

Aside from the suspended Camavinga, Real Madrid will also be missing long-term absentees Carvajal and Éder Militão again, while Ferland Mendy and Andriy Lunin are also expected to be unavailable due to injuries. 

In better news for Ancelotti, Aurélien Tchouaméni is available after the Frenchman missed the first leg due to suspension. Dani Ceballos could also potentially come into the midfield against his old team, after the 28-year-old made his return from injury off the bench at Mendizorroza at the weekend. 

As for Arsenal, they're sweating over the fitness of Thomas Partey heading into this match, while fellow midfielder Jorginho has been ruled out, with both players sustaining knocks against Brentford on Saturday. 

They already had a relatively lengthy injury list, consisting of Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Magalhães, Kai Havertz, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Riccardo Calafiori. Those players will all miss the trip to Spain, but Ben White is training again and could feature. 

Real Madrid vs Arsenal Odds

Real Madrid are priced at 8/11 to win the second leg, while Los Blancos are available at 11/2 to complete a famous comeback and win the tie. You can back the Draw at 7/2 in the Match Result market, while Arsenal are priced at 16/5 to win. 

Ancelotti's side are available at 7/4 to score over 2.5 goals, the bare minimum they need to happen to stand a chance of turning this around. You can also back Real Madrid to win and Over 2.5 goals at 5/4, while Real Madrid -2.00 Handicap is priced at 4/1. 

If you fancy the Gunners to build on a very impressive first leg showing by easing into the last four, you can back Draw or Arsenal at 11/10 in the Double Chance market. Arsenal are also available at 7/4 to score over 1.5 goals. 

In the goalscorer markets, Mbappé leads the way as the 100/30 favourite to score first, while you can back the striker to score anytime at 10/11. Vinícius Júnior is priced at 6/4 to get on the scoresheet, while you can back Jude Bellingham to score anytime at 21/10. 

From a visiting perspective, you can back makeshift forward Merino to score anytime at 3/1, while Saka is priced at 5/2 in the same market. 

Bet 1 - 2nd Half Result - Real Madrid @ 19/20 

Real Madrid don't just have a habit of coming back to win Champions League ties at the Bernabéu, they have a tendency to do their damage late on, often in the most dramatic of circumstances.  

From Joselu's 88th and 91st minute goals to win the semi-final against Bayern Munich last season to Rodrygo's last gasp double act against Manchester City in 2022, history suggests there is life left in this, despite Arsenal's three-goal lead. 

The Gunners should again be capable of competing well in midfield and having spells of supremacy in this game, but as they get closer to the prize, they may have to survive a Real Madrid onslaught, with just one home goal likely to be enough to lift the roof off the Bernabéu, and create the kind of atmosphere that could see Arsenal wobble. 

Overturning this kind of deficit could still end up being slightly beyond the hosts, but I'm backing Real Madrid in the Second Half Result market at 19/20. 

Bet 2 - Declan Rice 1+ shots on target @ 13/10 

Rice rightly grabbed all the headlines for his two brilliant free-kicks last week, and there'll surely be no chance of anyone taking the ball off him, should the opportunity arise from a dead-ball situation in a similar area in the second leg. 

The England international had five attempts in the first leg overall, more than any other player in the match. While Arsenal may not spend as much of this game on the front foot, the midfielder has to be feeling confident about his chances of testing Thibaut Courtois from range again. 

Having hit the target at least once in five of his last seven Arsenal appearances, including all of his last three games, I'm backing Declan Rice to have 1+ shots on target at 13/10 here. 

Offers:

Build your own Bet Builder bet (3/1+) of 4+ legs on Real Madrid v Arsenal and get 50% of your stake back in Free Bets up to £5 if you lose. (Credited within 24 hours)

Double Delight & Hat-Trick Heaven: Get double or treble the odds if your winning First Goalscorer bet scores a 2nd and 3rd

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page.