Real Madrid vs Valencia Prediction: Jude to win feisty affair

Two clubs who once contested a Champions League Final meet on Saturday evening in La Liga, with a 20:00 kick-off at the Santiago Bernabeu, in a game that’s free-to-air in the UK on ITV4. We've asked Spanish football expert Mark Sochon to preview this one and give us his best betting predictions.

While Valencia are no longer competing on anything like the level of Real Madrid, there remains a genuine rivalry between the clubs and these clashes tend to be feisty affairs.

That was certainly the case last season with red cards dished out in each of the league meetings. The most recent encounter produced a shock Valencia win in a game that was ultimately overshadowed by the racist abuse that was directed at Real Madrid’s Vinicius Junior.

Nearly six months on from one of the most controversial matches in European football last season, Real Madrid are gunning for revenge and they have a new star in their ranks.

Fresh from a midweek rest as Los Blancos made light work of Braga in the Champions League, Jude Bellingham should return for a team that has lost just once in 16 competitive outings so far this season.

Despite that impressive record and having accumulated more league points than likely title rivals Barcelona and Atletico Madrid, Carlo Ancelotti’s men are not top of La Liga. That honour currently goes to surprise package Girona, with Real Madrid surrendering top spot, as they somehow failed to find a way past Rayo Vallecano in a goalless encounter last weekend.

Valencia are 11 points worse off in 8th place, although that’s a great deal better than many expected, after they only secured survival on the final day last season.

They’ve gone five without defeat in all competitions and have found a degree of stability under Ruben Baraja who guided them to safety last term. However punters will want to consider that they’ve taken just three points from their last five away games in La Liga and have lost on each of their last five league visits to the Bernabeu.

Team News

Real Madrid rotated in midweek and are expected to recall the rested David Alaba, Dani Carvajal and Jude Bellingham to their eleven. Andriy Lunin is set to continue in goal with loanee Kepa Arrizabalaga set for a short spell on the sidelines with an injury.

Aside from Kepa, Real Madrid are already missing long-term absentees Thibaut Courtois and Eder Militao while Aurelien Tchouameni’s injury is offering Eduardo Camavinga a run in the team in a holding midfield role. The hosts will also have to do without the suspended Antonio Rudiger here.

Valencia have selection issues of their own with summer signing Selim Amallah picking up a fresh injury to join Andre Almeida and Alberto Mari on the sidelines. Meanwhile Mouctar Diakhaby, Cenk Ozkacar and Jesus Vazquez are doubts for the trip to the Spanish capital.

Match Odds

It comes as little surprise that Real Madrid are the clear favourites at 1/3 to win, while you can back Valencia at 17/2 with the draw available at 4/1.

If you fancy Los Blancos to take care of business without conceding, you can back Real Madrid to win to nil at 11/10, a bet that has come in 4 of the last 5 times these clubs have met in La Liga in the Spanish capital.

Many English eyes will be on Jude Bellingham with the young midfielder the top scorer in La Liga with 10 goals so far. He’s 11/8 to find the net anytime while you can back Vinicius Junior to score anytime at 13/10 as he faces Valencia for the first time since his late red card at Mestalla in May.

Jude Bellingham last goal scorer - 9/2

Bellingham currently boasts an extraordinary average of a goal every 95 minutes in the Spanish top flight. While that may not be sustainable in the long-term, in the role he’s currently playing, there’s no reason why he won’t continue to add to his tally in the upcoming weeks.

He’s operating as by far the most advanced midfielder for Real Madrid with many of his goals, including the recent late winner in El Clasico, the kind of close range finishes that you’d normally associate with a striker.

The 20-year-old’s goals are also tending to come late. He’s scored the last goal on six occasions so far in his Real Madrid career including Stoppage Time winners against Getafe and Union Berlin. Having been fully rested in midweek, there’s also a really strong chance that he completes the full game here and I’m backing Jude Bellingham to score last at 9/2.

Booking Points over 62.5 - 6/5

There is no love lost between these two clubs after two bad tempered meetings last season. Real Madrid were furious with Gabriel Paulista’s horror tackle on Vinicius Junior when the sides last met at the Bernabeu. The Valencia defender deservedly received a straight red in an incident that sparked angry confrontations and things hadn’t cooled down by the reverse meeting in Valencia.

Seven yellow cards were handed out in that match and there could easily have been other red cards as players from both sides clashed in Stoppage Time as Vinicius received his marching orders.

There is clearly bad blood between some of these players and this one could ignite at any moment so backing there to be over 62.5 booking points at 6/5 looks like a decent punt to me.

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