Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid Prediction: Jude to score anytime at 11/4 is great value

It is a relatively short trip for the reigning La Liga champions this Saturday evening as they make the journey to Vallecas to take on Rayo Vallecano. Premier Sports will stream the match live from 20:00.

Our Spanish football expert Mark Sochon has picked out an extremely tasty 11/4 shot that is well worth considering. Check out what and why below as he takes us through his Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid Predictions here on Betfred Insights...

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There's a Madrid derby on Saturday in La Liga, with Los Blancos making the short trip to Vallecas, where a hostile welcome always awaits them at Rayo Vallecano's small, but atmospheric old ground. 

Despite sharing the same city, these clubs are operating in very different worlds when it comes to their size, stature and financial muscle, but Rayo Vallecano have grown fond of giving their neighbours a bloody nose in recent years. 

Real Madrid have only won on one of their last four visits to this stadium. They were beaten 1-0 here in La Liga in 2019, while Rayo won a 3-2 thriller a little over two years ago. Andoni Iraola was in the home dugout that night, but it's his former assistant Iñigo Pérez who has since taken over and will be hoping to mastermind another famous victory here. 

Pérez's first game was this fixture last season, with a 1-1 draw in February marking a solid start to his reign. Still only 36, the Rayo boss will be pretty pleased with the work he has done so far, with his side currently sat in 12th place, having ultimately finished just one place above the relegation places last term. 

While they've not been quite as impressive, and certainly aren't as entertaining, as they were during the Iraola years, Rayo look very much on course to stay in the top flight. That's always the primary objective in these parts and a 1-0 win at struggling Valencia last weekend was another big step in that direction. 

Pérez will still be frustrated by his side's inability to put the ball in the net though. They frequently have much the better of their home games and create opportunities, without taking full advantage. 

Raúl de Tomás, who scored 17 goals for Espanyol and gained international recognition with Spain during the 2021/22 season, has been a shadow of his former self since returning to Vallecas at the end of that campaign. Meanwhile, young striker Sergio Camello has shown flashes of promise, but has only scored five league goals since the start of last term. 

Wastefulness up front has contributed to Rayo only winning two of their seven home fixtures in La Liga this season. The most extreme example of that was the recent visit of Las Palmas, when they had 34 shots, but lost the game 3-1, scoring only via an own goal. 

They should get more opportunities here against a Real Madrid side that has looked vulnerable defensively in some of their recent games. Injuries are of course a factor in that, but overall it has been a terrific week for Carlo Ancelotti and his side. 

An impressive 3-0 win at Girona last weekend, would have tasted even sweeter with Barcelona dropping points again. They remain in the thick of a three-horse title race in La Liga, while a 3-2 victory away to Serie A leaders Atalanta in midweek, ensures they are firmly back on track to make the knockout stage of the Champions League. 

They did need Thibaut Courtois to make seven saves in that game to secure maximum points, but it was their best away result of the season to date, with Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior and Jude Bellingham on the scoresheet. 

Whatever issues they may be experiencing, Real Madrid can never be written off with that level of individual quality to call upon. All three are capable of winning matches almost single-handedly, and Madridistas will be hoping that Tuesday's triumph in Bergamo is a sign of things to come, with the trio building up a greater understanding the more they play together. 

Team News: 

Real Madrid's Champions League victory did come at a cost, with Mbappé hobbling off with an injury that will rule him out this weekend. They are also missing Ferland Mendy here, so Fran García will start at left-back against his former club.  

Luka Modrić and Rodrygo may rotate in, while Raúl Asencio and Arda Güler are also options should Ancelotti decide fresh legs are needed. The visitors are still without long-term ACL absentees David Alaba, Dani Carvajal and Éder Militão. 

As for Rayo Vallecano, they have fitness doubts over De Tomás and Pelayo Fernández. Neither of those players are regular starters though, so Pérez should be able to field what he sees as his best eleven for this game. 

That may mean an unchanged side following victory at Mestalla, although Unai López could be preferred to Isi Palazón in midfield, should he want more physicality in that department. Former Real Madrid man James Rodríguez remains very much out of favour, having started just once so far in La Liga this term. 

Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid Odds

Real Madrid start as the 3/5 favourites to win this derby clash in the Spanish capital. You can back Rayo Vallecano at 9/2, while the Draw is priced at 3/1. 

If you're expecting goals, Both teams to score is available at 5/6. You can also back Over 2.5 goals at 4/5, while Over 3.5 goals is on offer at 2/1. 

While they did suffer defeat in Bilbao the week before last, Los Blancos have won four of their last five in La Liga without conceding, and by at least two goals. You can back Real Madrid -1.00 Handicap at 13/8 here, while the visitors are priced at 8/5 to win the game to nil. 

Rayo's strong recent record in this fixture does cast some doubt on that though. The home team are available at 15/8 to win either half, while you can back Rayo Vallecano or Draw at 13/10. 

With Mbappé sidelined, Vinícius Júnior should spearhead the visiting attack. He's on offer at 13/8 to score anytime and 5/1 to score first. You can also get odds of 23/10 for Rodrygo to get on the scoresheet. 

Bet 1 - Over 1.5 goals & Rayo Vallecano over 11.5 shots @ 49/50 

There have been two or more goals in every single Real Madrid game this season, with the exception of their Champions League defeat in Lille. While this may not be as open as their midweek win in Italy, Rayo are not afraid to commit bodies forward when the opportunity arises and we should get goals in this. 

Pérez's side are not shy to shoot either. They average 16.0 shots per home game, the fourth most of any team in La Liga this term and their midfield players frequently fire in attempts from range.  

Real Madrid allowed Atalanta to have 20 attempts in midweek, and while they are clearly a stronger side, I still like the look of Over 1.5 goals and Rayo Vallecano over 11.5 shots at 49/50 via the Bet Builder here. 

Bet 2 - Jude Bellingham to score anytime @ 11/4 

It was a slow start to the season from Bellingham, but that was at least partially down to a shift in his role, with Ancelotti looking to accommodate a front three of Mbappé, Vinícius and Rodrygo. 

In recent weeks, we have frequently seen a different approach, with Bellingham getting more freedom to drift into the penalty area and take up some of the advanced positions that he thrived in during his 19-goal debut season in La Liga. 

With Mbappé out, we are likely to see the visitors go with a front two again here. That should be good news for the Englishman who is in stunning form right now, having scored in each of his last five league games. 

I'm backing Bellingham to score anytime at 11/4, a huge price given his current form in front of goal. We won last week on the same bet at 21/10 in our Girona vs Real Madrid Predictions piece and the odds are even better this time!

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...