QPR vs Middlesbrough Prediction: Boro can get back to winning ways

QPR continued their mini-revival by holding league leaders Sunderland to a draw at the weekend which made it three draws in a row for Marti Cifuentes. His side remain in the bottom three having only won once this term, but at least they’ve stopped that run of defeats that sunk them to 24th place. 

Their next test comes at home to Middlesbrough as Michael Carrick comes under a bit of pressure from a frustrated fanbase. Boro lost 3-0 at home to Coventry on Saturday and simply haven’t taken advantage of the good positions they have been in this term. They’ll look to find a win on the road as they travel to Loftus Road and below you can find my QPR vs Middlesbrough prediction, featuring team news and betting tips. 

Team News

Harrison Ashby had to be substituted in the first half against Sunderland at the weekend, so we can expect him to be forced to sit this one out. It means Hevertton Santos or Koki Saito could start this one at full-back, depending on how adventurous Cifuentes wants to be. 

Michael Frey remains out with his calf issue, and that is clearly hampering the R’s, who have scored just once in the three games he has been sidelined for. Zan Celar isn’t the same presence up front, while Kenneth Paal and Jack Colback are also set to miss this midweek clash. 

Nicolas Madsen could provide more of a goal threat along with Ilias Chair while Jonathan Varane is set to continue in the heart of midfield after a few sensational showings. 

Meanwhile, Middlesbrough will be without the suspended Hayden Hackney after he saw red v Coventry, so Jonny Howson could come into the XI. However, his legs look like they could be deserting him, so Daniel Barlaser may provide a more physically capable option for the whole 90 minutes. 

Elsewhere, Emmanuel Latte Lath has had to settle for a spot on the bench in recent weeks, with Tommy Conway scoring four goals this term. Carrick will likely bring Ben Doak back into the squad after resting the teenager at the weekend, and boy did they miss him. Isaiah Jones will drop out if the Liverpool man does come back in, while Anfernee Dijksteel probably deserves a start ahead of Luke Ayling. Rav van den Berg has been ruled out until after the international break with a knee problem. 

QPR vs Middlesbrough Odds

QPR are priced at 11/4 to win this game, while Middlesbrough are available at 19/20. That gives Boro an implied win probability of 54%, while a draw can be backed at 13/5. Over 2.5 goals is 5/6, BTTS is 8/11 and Tommy Conway is the favourite to open the scoring at 5/1. 

Middlesbrough to win @ 19/20 

I’m not going to get drawn into the worry around Middlesbrough, even though I believe Hackney will be a big miss in the midfield. The simple fact is that they were beaten by a Coventry team who look to have finally found their feet this season. The early red card certainly hampered them and added to the frustration at throwing away a 3-1 lead at Carrow Road the previous week. 

However, Boro are still one of the most creative teams in the league and now have the second-highest xG per 90 figure, only behind Leeds. That means they should be scoring a lot of goals and winning a lot of games, it just hasn’t been the case quite yet. We saw at Norwich how good they can be, so I’m expecting another big performance and an away win. QPR have improved and should be able to climb away from danger, but Boro are a class above them this term.  

Over 2.5 Boro goals @ 3/1

An xG per 90 of 1.63 is nothing to be sniffed out. Carrick’s side create so many chances and with 11 men on the pitch, should be able to do so again against QPR. I think there is some value in backing them to score over 2.5 goals away from home. 

They did it at Norwich and then missed a penalty at 3-1 up that would have wrapped up a statement away win. The Coventry game was just one of those days and I believe they will be back to their best in the capital. The odds are fairly big for this one because QPR have kept two clean sheets in a row, but I think Boro can end that run on Tuesday night.

A big away win is on the cards for me.

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