PSG vs Brest Prediction: A low-key second leg at the Parc des Princes

Brest have a mountain to climb if they are to progress to the last 16 of the Uefa Champions League after losing 3-0 at home to Paris Saint-Germain in the first leg of their knockout phase play-off tie last Tuesday. Goals from Vitinha and Ousmane Dembele had the Parisians two up at half-time at the Stade de Roudourou and another strike from Dembele in the second half looks to have put the tie out of Les Pirates' reach.

Below are my PSG vs Brest predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, as I ponder the possibility of an almighty comeback by the visitors at the Parc des Princes on Wednesday (20:00, TNT Sports 4).

Team News

Warren Zaire-Emery and Ibrahim Mbaye (both ankle) remain injured for the hosts, who made six changes to their starting XI on Saturday ahead of beating Toulouse 1-0 in Ligue 1.

It appears Luis Enrique is taking no chances in this tie despite playing at home on Wednesday with a three-goal advantage, and it's probably a sensible decision given they are 10 points clear at the top of the French top flight ahead of Sunday's trip to Lyon.

Gianluigi Donnarumma, Marquinhos, Nuno Mendes, Joao Neves, Vitinha and Dembele are all expected to return to the starting line-up at the Parc des Princes, though Khvicha Kvaratskhelia will be hoping to keep his place and make his full European debut for the Parisians.

Football Odds

Brest head coach Eric Roy also made six changes for his side's league game last week. Soumaila Coulibaly, Brendan Chardonnet, Massadio Haidara, Pierre Lees-Melou, Abdallah Sima and Romain Faivre all dropped out of the starting XI that drew 2-2 at home to Auxerre on Friday.

Haidara was left out of the squad completely, so it remains to be seen whether that was injury-enforced, but the other five will hope to be restored to the lineup on Wednesday.

Ibrahim Salah was one of the six additions to the starting XI against Auxerre but the 23-year-old attacker lasted just 21 minutes before being withdrawn due to a foot injury.

The Moroccan joins Bradley Locko (Achilles), Jordan Amavi (hamstring), Jonas Martin (muscle) and Romain Del Castillo (knee) in the Brest treatment room.

PSG vs Brest Odds

PSG have already beaten Brest three times this season, home (3-1) and away (2-5) in Ligue 1 before last week's Champions League victory, and Luis Enrique's side are 1/5, or an 83.3% chance, to make it four on Wednesday. The visitors have never tasted success against the Parisians under their current moniker and are, unsurprisingly, long odds to get the better of them here.

Brest are 12/1 just to triumph in regulation time at the Parc des Princes, implying a 7.7% probability, and they are 50/1 to win the tie which would require at least a three-goal victory - four in 90 minutes.

A draw in normal time has been priced at 13/2, both teams to score at 4/5, and over 2.5 total goals at 1/3.

Dembele has scored 18 goals in his last 12 games and he heads the anytime goalscorer market at 8/11, while you can back the Frenchman to bag another brace against Brest at 100/30.

Total Goals - Under 3.5 @ 1/1

Head-to-heads between these sides have been loaded with goals in recent years; there were five straight games with at least four goals scored before last week's first leg saw 'only' three struck.

Perhaps we'll see a higher number on Wednesday with Brest having nothing to lose, meaning they may open up even more, and that could, in, turn lead to PSG having chances on the counterattack.

I can certainly see two or three goals in this contest, but four seems like a stretch with both teams having one eye on their league games this weekend.

PSG can pass the ball for fun and they can afford to be as patient as they like here, while Brest will be desperate to avoid another heavy defeat and so could end up focusing more on their defensive duties.

Booking Points Over/Under +27.5 - Under 27.5 @ 6/4

There were just two yellows - 20 booking points - awarded in last week's first leg, with PSG's Bradley Barcola going in the book on 70 minutes and Brest's Chardonnet following him in there four minutes later, and in the first meeting between the sides this calendar year - the Parisians' 5-2 win at the Stade Francis-Le Ble on February 1 - just a single card was issued to Sima.

With PSG in full control of this tie and a comeback from the visitors feeling highly unlikely, we could see a fairly sterile game with few fireworks.

The hosts have no reason to lose their heads and while Brest will want to make a game of it, they may lack their usual intensity, particularly with an important league match at Strasbourg on Sunday in their minds.

I considered backing 0-15 booking points at 7/2 but both cautions last week came after PSG went three up, so I prefer the leeway offered by under 27.5 booking points, which means that this selection would land with two yellows (and no reds) or one straight red (and no yellows).

Offers

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