Premier League Stats: Key Stats & Suggested Bet for Every Match in Gameweek 27

The title race is well and truly on after Arsenal somehow threw away a two-goal lead at Wolves in midweek and Manchester City could temporarily close the gap to just two points with victory over Newcastle on Saturday, ahead of the north London derby on Sunday. 

Dan Thomas returns with the key stats and best bets for those two big games and every other Premier League match in gameweek 27... 

*You can check out all of our Premier League Odds & Betting Markets over on betfred.com

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Premier League Stats & Best Bets for Week 27

• Aston Villa vs Leeds United 
• Saturday, 15:00 

Key stat: Since the start of December, no team has drawn as many games as Leeds (7) with only the two Manchester clubs losing fewer matches than the Whites in this period.  

Best bet: We had a nice 7/2 winner in backing Leeds to avoid defeat at Chelsea last time out and we'll go in again on Daniel Farke's men to hold stuttering Aston Villa on Saturday. Five of the visitors' last six in the Premier League have ended all square while Unai Emery's men have failed to beat the likes of Brentford, Everton and Newcastle on home turf in recent weeks. 

• Brentford vs Brighton  
• Saturday, 15:00 

Key stat: Brentford have picked up 20 points in their last 10 Premier League matches, while no side has won fewer Premier League matches since December than Brighton. 

Best bet: It's the 'data derby' on Saturday as Tony Bloom's Brighton come up against his protégé Matthew Benham's Brentford and it's safe to say who has been the happiest this season so far. The Bees have won three of their last four in all competitions including outstanding victories over Aston Villa and Newcastle, while the Seagulls have lost four of their last five. Over even money on the home win looks a very solid proposition.  

• Chelsea vs Burnley 
• Saturday, 15:00 

Key stat: Chelsea have kept just one clean sheet in their past 10 Premier League matches, while Burnley have netted in 10 of their last 12 on the road in the top flight.  

Best bet: Chelsea have lost just one of their 19 Premier League games against Burnley and it's hard to see anything other than three points for the hosts with the Clarets still reeling from a shock home FA Cup defeat to League One Mansfield Town. But Scott Parker's men have at least shown good attacking intent in recent weeks, with a 3-2 win at Crystal Palace the highlight. With the Blues having conceded twice in four of their last five at Stamford Bridge, we will back the visitors to find the net but ultimately come up short in this one.  

• West Ham vs Bournemouth
• Saturday, 17:30
• Live on Sky Sports

Key stat: Each of the last five Premier League meetings between Bournemouth and West Ham have been drawn, with the pair among the worst three in the division for dropping points from winning positions. 

Best bet: After going 11 matches without a win at the end of last year, Bournemouth are now unbeaten in six, winning four of these. West Ham are in decent nick themselves, earning 10 points from their last five Premier League games, and this could well be a case of two in-form sides cancelling each other out. We'll back yet another stalemate between these two at a decent price.  

• Manchester City vs Newcastle  
• Saturday, 20:00 
• Live on TNT Sport 

Key stat: Manchester City have won their last six Premier League home games against Newcastle without conceding, while they have won to nil in four of their last six matches at the Etihad.  

Best bet: Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 21 Premier League home games against Newcastle, winning each of the last 16, and with Arsenal now firmly in their sights, few will be betting against another three points for Pep Guardiola's men - hence the quotes of 4/9. But we can boost that to 15/8 by adding a City clean sheet; the hosts have only conceded eight goals in 12 Premier League games since that crazy 5-4 win at Fulham.  

• Crystal Palace vs Wolves 
• Sunday, 14:00 
• Live on Sky Sports  

Key stat: Crystal Palace are winless in their last eight Premier League home games, their longest run at Selhurst Park in the top flight since their first 15 of the 1997/98 campaign. 

Best bet: Hopes that the away win over bitter rivals Brighton would reinvigorate Crystal Palace's season quickly faded away with home defeat to 19th placed Burnley followed up by a disappointing draw in the Conference League playoff round at Bosnian outfit Zrinjski Mostar. Wolves know they are down but they're on a mini unbeaten run of three now in all competitions after that dramatic late equaliser against Arsenal and we'll back Rob Edwards' men to avoid defeat again at an odds-against price. 

• Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool 
• Sunday, 14:00 
• Live on Sky Sports  

Key stat: Nottingham Forest have failed to score in 12 Premier League games this season, while Liverpool have won only three of their last 11 away matches in the league. 

Best bet: A cracking start to life as Forest manager for Vitor Pereira with a resounding 3-0 win over Fenerbahçe in midweek, but we've seen Premier League teams dominate in Europe all season and he'll surely be focused on keeping things tight for his opening bow in the league. Liverpool have been unusually poor on the road this season but did pick up a battling 1-0 win at Sunderland last time out and this could be another game decided by a single goal either way. We'll back under 2.5 goals at an odds-against price.  

• Sunderland vs Fulham 
• Sunday, 14:00 
• Live on Sky Sports 

Key stat: Sunderland have only failed to score in two of their 13 Premier League home games this season, while Fulham have lost each of their last three top flight matches, conceding at least twice each time 

Best bet: Sunderland finally lost their unbeaten home record with Liverpool emerging victorious at the Stadium of Light last time out but remaining undefeated until February tells you all you need to know about the Black Cats. Fulham have had a solid season, but are having their first real wobble with three losses on the spin and I was surprised they are considered slight favourites for this one. We'll back Regis Le Bris' to take the three points.  

• Tottenham vs Arsenal 
• Sunday, 16:30 
• Live on Sky Sports  

Key stat: Six of Tottenham's last eight Premier League home games have seen three or more goals, with the over 2.5 goals line breached in seven of Arsenal's nine in all competitions.  

Best bet: With Thomas Frank in the dugout, very few would have given Tottenham a sniff here, even with Arsenal on a slightly concerning run of two wins in seven in the league, but with the board having finally made a change and short-term specialist Igor Tudor in situ, Spurs fans are feeling slightly less pessimistic. But vibes are unlikely enough for the hosts to get a result here and, with Arsenal on the skinny side at 3/5, my attention is instead drawn to the goals markets. Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals are odds-on when taken individually, but by doubling them we can get 11/8 and that's the play for what should be an entertaining encounter.  

• Everton vs Manchester United 
• Monday, 20:00 
• Live on Sky Sports  

Key stat: Manchester United are unbeaten in their last nine Premier League games and are the only top flight side yet to be defeated in 2026, with no side earning more Premier League points (15) since January 1.  

Best bet: Michael Carrick's 100% record in his second stint as interim manager came to an end last time out at West Ham but Manchester United would have gone home relatively happy given how late - and technically excellent - Benjamin Sesko's late equaliser was. They face an Everton side who are thankful that they have been good on the road; the Toffees haven't won at the Hill Dickinson since December 6 and lost to Bournemouth last time out having been 1-0 up. I made United an odds-on chance here, so happy to take the even money.  

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Dan Thomas Premier League Stats P&L 2025/26:

• Stakes: 250
• Returns: 189.47
• Profit: -60.53

You can check out all of Today's Football Fixtures and Football Betting Tips in our dedicated sections on the website.