Brighton vs Newcastle Prediction: Seagulls to extend unbeaten run against Magpies

Brighton & Hove Albion’s first game after the October international break arrives on Saturday (15:00 BST) as they host Newcastle United at the Amex Stadium. Both sides have picked up nine points from their first seven Premier League outings this season, and three of the last four head-to-heads have finished level (in regulation time), setting up a fascinating contest on the South Coast this weekend.

Below are my Brighton vs Newcastle predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Adam Webster, Solly March (both knee), Kaoru Mitoma, Jack Hinshelwood (both ankle) and Joel Veltman (calf) could all be out injured for Brighton, with all five missing the Seagulls’ 1-1 draw at Wolves prior to the international break.

Brajan Gruda (knee) is considered doubtful after leaving the Germany U21 camp with an issue.

Football Odds

As for Newcastle, Eddie Howe won’t be able to call on Yoane Wissa, Valentino Livramento (both knee) or Jacob Ramsey (ankle).

Brighton vs Newcastle Odds

Brighton are 8/5 favourites in the match result market, implying a 38.5% probability of success. After dropping a two-goal lead against Tottenham Hotspur (2-2) last time out at home, it may be worth backing the Seagulls in the 2 Up Early Payout market instead, at 7/5.

Newcastle, meanwhile, are 13/8, or a 38.1% chance, to triumph on their domestic travels for the first time this season, while a fourth consecutive away stalemate for the Magpies is priced at 12/5.

Double Chance & Both Teams To Score - Brighton or Draw & Yes @ 13/10

Both teams have scored in seven of the last nine meetings between these sides, including six of the last eight in the Premier League.

Last October, Brighton triumphed 1-0 in the league at St James’ Park before drawing 1-1 there in regulation time of their FA Cup tie in March, advancing to the quarter-finals thanks to an extra-time winner from Danny Welbeck. Then, in the reverse league fixture at the Amex in May, the two teams shared the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

Brighton, alongside Fulham, topped the Premier League’s ‘Both Teams To Score’ table last season, with 71% (27) of their 38 games ending with both sides on the scoresheet (74% at home).

Newcastle were 16th, with 50% (19) of their league matches seeing both teams score (58% away). The Magpies (29%) are joint-bottom of the current BTTS standings, after a slow start to the campaign that saw Howe’s charges fail to score in three of their first five games, including their first two.

Today's Football Fixtures

However, the North East giants have found the net in three of their last four league matches, including their latest two, and will be confident of breaching a Brighton backline that is yet to keep a Premier League clean sheet this season.

Unsurprisingly, Fabian Hurzeler’s side are leading the way again in the BTTS table, with 86% (six) of their seven games seeing at least one goal for both teams.

So, backing both teams to score looks like a sensible shout, but we can up our odds to above EVS by combining that selection with Brighton or Draw in the Double Chance & BTTS market.

The Seagulls are unbeaten at home this season, drawing with Fulham (1-1) and Spurs (2-2), either side of a victory over Manchester City (2-1), while Newcastle have drawn all three of their away games against Aston Villa, Leeds United and AFC Bournemouth (all 0-0).

Brighton are also undefeated in their last five matches against Newcastle in all competitions, and haven’t lost to the Magpies at home since suffering a 2-1 EFL Championship defeat at the Amex in February 2017.

Team With Most Booking Points - Brighton @ 13/10

Only Man City (57), Brentford (62), Arsenal (64) and Liverpool (65) received fewer yellow cards in the Premier League last season than Newcastle (68), who were also issued just one red card - only Spurs, Brentford (both one) and Leicester City (zero) also avoided multiple dismissals.

The Magpies have already matched their 2024/25 red card tally this term, thanks to Anthony Gordon’s sending off against Liverpool in August, but they remain low in the yellow card table, with only Manchester United (six) cautioned fewer times than Howe’s men (eight).

Brighton, on the other hand, have accrued the most yellows in the league with 22, four more than second-place Everton (18).

The Seagulls have received at least two yellows in all seven Premier League matches this season, and now face a Newcastle side that avoided any bookings in their 2-0 victory over Nottingham Forest before the October international break.

Brighton were awarded two yellows (20 booking points) to Newcastle’s one (10 booking points) in May’s meeting at the Amex, while they were also in receipt of the most booking points in March’s cup tie.

In Bruno Guimaraes, Newcastle have the second-most fouled player in the Premier League this season, with only Everton’s Jack Grealish (26) taken down more times than the Brazilian (19), while Anthony Gordon is averaging 1.75 fouls won per game, and averaged 2.1 per game in 2024/25.

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