Brighton vs Chelsea Prediction: A card for Cucurella on South Coast return

Chelsea suffered their fourth straight Premier League defeat last Saturday, losing 1-0 at home to Manchester United to leave the west London side seven points behind fifth-placed Liverpool, with just five rounds of fixtures remaining. On Tuesday (20:00 BST, Sky Sports Main Event), they face Brighton & Hove Albion, for whom Blues head coach Liam Rosenior made 51 appearances at the back end of his playing days.

Brighton could have overtaken Chelsea in sixth on Saturday, but the Seagulls were denied a fourth consecutive victory as they drew 2-2 at Tottenham Hotspur. Below are my Brighton vs Chelsea predictions, supported by the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this midweek meeting at the Amex Stadium.

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Team News

Stefanos Tzimas (knee) and James Milner (unspecified) are ruled out for Fabian Hurzeler's Brighton, while there are doubts over the availability of Diego Gomez and Karou Mitoma; the former was withdrawn for the latter in the 20th minute on Sunday, but the Japanese winger only lasted until the 75th minute.

In more positive news, Seagulls skipper Lewis Dunk is available after completing a two-game suspension for an accumulation of yellow cards.

Football Odds

Levi Colwill (knee), Reece James, Estevao, Jamie Gittens (all hamstring) and Filip Jorgensen (groin) are still sidelined for Chelsea, while Joao Pedro (thigh) is doubtful after missing Saturday's defeat at Stamford Bridge.

Concerns were raised over Enzo Fernandez following the midfielder's late substitution against Man United, but he looks good to go again on Tuesday.

Brighton vs Chelsea Odds

Brighton, who have won the last three head-to-heads, are 6/4 to make it four victories in a row over Chelsea, implying a 40% probability of success, while the Blues are 13/8, or a 38.1% chance, to record a first success against the Seagulls since September 2024, with the draw offered at 13/5.

Price Boosts - Enzo Fernandez (CHE) 2+ Fouls Committed & 2+ Fouls Won @ 10/3 4/1

After a two-game club-enforced suspension, Fernandez made his return to the Chelsea side on Saturday, playing the first 88 minutes before being withdrawn with a calf complaint. His boss, Rosenior, didn't sound too downbeat after the game, though, suggesting it was just cramp, and outlining the importance of the Argentine featuring on Tuesday.

Should the 25-year-old pass a fitness test and start against Brighton at the Amex, I like the boosted price of him committing two fouls and winning two fouls.

Today's Football Fixtures

Fernandez is averaging a foul per 90 minutes in this season's Premier League, and 1.8 fouls per 90 in the Uefa Champions League, while he's been booked in three of his last four starts against the Seagulls, including last season's corresponding fixture.

The 2022 World Cup winner is averaging 1.3 fouls won per 90 in the 2025/26 Premier League, and 2.3 fouls won per 90 in the Champions League. He was fouled four times in September's reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge and three times in last season's corresponding game at the Amex, while six days before that latter match, in an FA Cup tie on the South Coast, he was upended twice, despite only being introduced in the 58th minute.

Brighton committed 14 fouls in Saturday's stalemate with Spurs and only Wolves (433) have been whistled more times for fouling than Hurzeler's side (399) in the Premier League this season.

Player to Receive a Card - Marc Cucurella (CHE) @ 13/5

Chelsea left-back Marc Cucurella has been booked in two of his last three league appearances against his former club Brighton.

The 27-year-old was cautioned for an off-the-ball foul in his side's 4-2 victory over the Seagulls at Stamford Bridge in September 2024, and almost a year to the day, in September 2025, he was shown a yellow for fouling Gomez as the visitors ran out 3-1 winners in west London.

Cucurella, who is averaging 1.5 per 90 minutes in this season's Premier League (1.7 per 90 in the Champions League), has been awarded six yellows and one red in the English top flight this term, most recently earning the lighter shade in Chelsea's 3-0 home defeat to Manchester City on April 12.

The Spain international, who has received 26 yellows and two reds in the Premier League since the start of the 2023/24 campaign, could be tasked with containing the mercurial talents of Georginio Rutter on Tuesday.

Rutter, who came off the bench at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Saturday to rescue a point for the Seagulls with a stoppage-time equaliser, is in line to start against Chelsea, and he's usually a difficult man to mark.

The Frenchman is averaging 1.8 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League this season, and in his last start, a 1-0 home defeat to Arsenal on March 4, he was upended four times, with Gunners defender Cristhian Mosquera booked for a foul on him in the 11th minute.

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