Premier League run-in: The stats behind the belief Manchester City are nailed-on champions
Manchester City’s seemingly inevitable late-season burst to yet another Premier League title was given another boost on Monday as Phil Foden’s hat-trick saw them past Brentford to put them within two points of leaders Liverpool.
And the watching public seems to have already come to terms with the thought of City recording a fourth successive league title – a Premier League record – due to the nature of their run-ins in previous seasons. The stats certainly back up this supposition.
Premier League odds
With the Premier League season standing 15 rounds from its conclusion, Betfred Insights has created a study to look at the average points collected by current top-flight teams over a similar period in the last 10 years.
Somewhat unsurprisingly, it is City who have the best return. For a start, the reigning champions have recorded four of the 10 best 15-game run-ins over the past decade, with their 42-point tally in 2018-19 helping to see off Liverpool in one of the most epic title battles of the modern era.
The Citizens, who are now 4/7 favourites with Betfred to win the league, have racked up an average of 33.8 points over the final 15 matchdays of the past 10 seasons, with Liverpool’s 31.7 the second-best haul. That would suggest a neck-and-neck finish to the 2023-24 campaign given the Reds’ two-point advantage at present, but Pep Guardiola’s side still have an extra game to play following the postponement of their fixture against Brentford in December due to their involvement in the Club World Cup.
So, taking into account their final 16 matches rather than 15, City’s average points tally rises to 35.7, projecting them an 85-point return in 2023-24 compared to Liverpool’s 83.
| Team | 10-year average run-in | Projected 2023-24 total |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 35.7* | 85 |
| Liverpool | 31.7 | 83 |
| Arsenal | 28.2 | 77 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 27.1 | 71 |
| Manchester United | 26.7 | 65 |
| Aston Villa | 15.43 | 61 |
| Chelsea | 26.8 | 58 |
| West Ham United | 19.4 | 55 |
| Newcastle United | 19.44 | 52 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17 | 52 |
| Wolves | 20 | 52 |
| AFC Bournemouth | 19.03* | 46 |
| Brentford | 22.5* | 45 |
| Crystal Palace | 19.5 | 44 |
| Everton | 21.4 | 40 |
| Fulham | 13.5 | 40 |
| Luton Town** | 15.3* | 35 |
| Nottingham Forest | 14 | 35 |
| Burnley | 17 | 30 |
| Sheffield United | 17 | 27 |
Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur have also finished strongly over the last 10 seasons, averaging 28.2 and 27.1 points respectively over the last 15 rounds, while Manchester United’s 26.7 suggests they should have enough in them to finish fifth this term. That supposes, though, that Aston Villa, do not improve on their average 15.43 points gained, despite their vastly improved form under Unai Emery. For example, in 2022-23 they tallied 30 points in the run-in compared to just four in 2015-16 on their way to relegation.
Down at the bottom, Sheffield United would need to dramatically improve on their 17-point average to pull themselves out of danger, while Burnley’s identical record means they also look like prime candidates for the drop.
Luton Town are obviously an outlier in that they don’t have a Premier League history to speak of prior to the current campaign, but by averaging out the three lowest averages of other sides in the study (Fulham, Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa), the Hatters can be expected to achieve at least 15 points in their final 16 matches, which would put them within a point of Forest’s 35 at the season’s end.
Everton, meanwhile, have tended to achieve an upturn in the second half of seasons in the past decade (21.4 average), although a repeat of their last two returns of 16 and 18 points might see them running it close again this time around.
Below are the full rankings of teams over the last 15 rounds.
Stats are taken from an average run-in after matchday 24 (or 23 for those with a game in hand) from season 2013-14 to 2022-23.
*Average over final 16 matchdays to allow for game in hand
**Luton Town's projection taken from average run-in of lowest three competitors
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