Premier League Top 4 Finish Odds: Can anyone upset the apple cart in 25/26?

Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City and Chelsea finished first, second, third and fourth, respectively, in last season's Premier League, guaranteeing their places in the league phase of the 2025/26 Uefa Champions League. The four clubs will be joined in the competition by fifth-placed Newcastle United, with England handed an extra spot based on European performance.

The top four will be the target again for all five sides, with no guarantees that fifth will secure Champions League football in 2026/27. Below are the Premier League Top 4 Finish Odds, where I profile the main runners and riders...

Liverpool @ 1/10

Reigning Premier League champions Liverpool amassed 82 of their 84-point haul last season before the start of May, and ended up 15 points ahead of fourth-placed Chelsea.

The Reds have seen Trent Alexander-Arnold (Real Madrid), Luis Diaz (Bayern Munich) and Darwin Nunez (Al-Hilal), among others, depart the club during the summer, while the club has had to deal with the tragic passing of Portuguese forward Diogo Jota.

But Arne Slot's side have strengthened in the transfer window, notably signing Florian Wirtz, Jeremie Frimpong (both Bayer Leverkusen), Hugo Ekitike (Eintracht Frankfurt) and Milos Kerkez (AFC Bournemouth), while further additions are in the pipeline.

The message is clear: Liverpool want to push forward, rather than stand still or regress, and therefore, another tilt for the title is being targeted.

The six-time Champions League winners have only finished outside the top four once in the last nine seasons, and it would be a huge shock if they weren't among the best four teams in the division again this year.

Arsenal @ 1/7

Arsenal were the Premier League bridesmaids for the third successive season in 2024/25, a real sign of the Gunners' improvement under Mikel Arteta, following six consecutive campaigns outside the top four.

Questions remain over their ability to get over the line in the title race, but it's been a strong summer for the north London side, who have signed Viktor Gyokeres (Sporting CP), Martin Zubimendi (Real Sociedad), Noni Madueke, Kepa Arrizabalaga (both Chelsea), Christian Norgaard (Brentford) and Cristhian Mosquera (Valencia), while retaining their key assets.

Like Liverpool, it would be a big surprise if Arsenal didn't make the top four again, and that's reflected in their price.

Manchester City @ 1/4

Manchester City endured a dismal 2024/25 season by their lofty standards, finishing third, 13 points behind the champions.

Still, despite fears that they could miss out on the Champions League, Pep Guardiola's charges ended the campaign well and were only three points off runners-up Arsenal.

The Citizens have now recorded 15 consecutive top-four finishes, last failing to make the grade under Roberto Mancini in 2009/10.

After recovering from an ACL injury, reigning Ballon d'Or winner Rodri should play a more significant role this season, while Guardiola has added Rayan Cherki (Olympique Lyonnais), Tijjani Reijnders (AC Milan), Rayan Ait-Nouri (Wolverhampton Wanderers) and James Trafford (Burnley) to bolster his options, which had dwindled slightly following the departures of Kevin De Bruyne (Napoli) and Kyle Walker (Burnley).

City should be back battling for the title, not just to make the top four, in 2025/26.

Chelsea @ 8/13

After 12th and sixth-place finishes in 2022/23 and 2023/24, respectively, Enzo Maresca steered Chelsea back to the top four last season, although not without difficulty, as the Blues had to beat Nottingham Forest on the final day of the season and rely on Newcastle United losing at home to Everton, which they did.

The west London side then went on to lift the Uefa Conference League trophy in Poland, before another successful mission in the USA, where they were crowned champions of the 2025 Fifa Club World Cup.

Football Odds

Given the quality in their squad, and the vast sums of money spent, it should really be a foregone conclusion that Chelsea make this season's top four, and they are comfortably ahead of the chasing pack at 8/13 with Betfred.

Jorrel Hato (Ajax), Estevao (Palmeiras), Joao Pedro (Brighton & Hove Albion), Liam Delap (Ipswich Town) and Jamie Gittens (Borussia Dortmund) have all arrived at Stamford Bridge this summer to further strengthen the starting XI and squad, which hasn't seen any significant exits, so like last season's top three, it would be a big black mark on Maresca's CV if the Blues weren't able to finish in the top four again.

Newcastle United @ 5/2

Despite finishing fifth last season, Newcastle are back in the Champions League after a year away, courtesy of England being granted an extra league phase spot in European club football's premier cup competition.

The Magpies' last fourth-place finish was in the 2022/23 season, which remains their only one in the past 22 years.

Things aren't likely to get any easier for Eddie Howe's side this season, with star striker Alexander Isak seemingly set on a move to Liverpool.

Anthony Elanga (Nottingham Forest) will add more pace and quality on the wings, but the Sweden international is the club's only major permanent addition, with Aaron Ramsdale (Arsenal) joining on loan to compete for the number one spot with Nick Pope.

At the time of writing, AC Milan defender Malick Thiaw looks likely to turn up on Tyneside to add depth to the middle of defence, but should Isak exit, joining Callum Wilson (West Ham United) out the door, a couple of big attacking signings will be required to give them a fighting chance of making the top four this season.

Manchester United @ 3/1

While the Magpies scramble around for some forwards, Manchester United's new front three has already been assembled, with Benjamin Sesko (RB Leipzig) recently joining Bryan Mbeumo (Brentford) and Matheus Cunha (Wolverhampton Wanderers) at Old Trafford.

The trio should offer an upgrade on last season's options, but there are still glaring vulnerabilities in goal, defence and midfield, while question marks persist over the tactics and formation implemented by head coach Ruben Amorim.

The Red Devils should easily improve on their 15th-place standing last term, but can they move from the 42 points they accrued in 2024/25 to, say, the 69 mark which saw Chelsea finish fourth last season? It feels unlikely.

Aston Villa @ 4/1

Aston Villa finished fourth under Unai Emery in 2023/24, but could only claim sixth place last season, picking up two fewer points.

With the Spaniard at the helm, it feels like there is always a chance of the Villans overachieving. Still, amid PSR concerns, it's been a quiet transfer window so far, with only Ivorian attacker Evann Guessand (OGC Nice) brought in. At the same time, January loanees Marcus Rashford (Manchester United, now on loan at Barcelona), Axel Disasi (Chelsea) and Marcos Asensio (Paris Saint-Germain) all returned to their parent clubs following the campaign's conclusion.

Premier League Odds

With the big boys all splashing the cash again this summer, it feels like a big ask for Villa to clamber back into the top four.

Tottenham Hotspur @ 5/1

Reigning Europa League champions Tottenham Hotspur start the new season with a new manager at the helm, following the sacking of Ange Postecoglou, who took the club to glory in Bilbao but also oversaw a harrowing league campaign where the Lilywhites finished 17th.

Thomas Frank, who achieved brilliant things at Brentford, has been appointed as Postecoglou's successor, and has so far made two major signings, Mohammed Kudus (West Ham United) on a permanent deal, and Joao Palhinha (Bayern Munich) on loan with a view to buy.

Football Odds

Spurs skipper Son Heung-min has left for Los Angeles FC, though, while one of the club's vice-captains, James Maddison, looks set to miss the majority of the upcoming campaign with a torn ACL.

Frank will no doubt be eyeing further recruits as he looks to take Spurs to their first top-four finish since 2021/22 under Antonio Conte.

It's tough to see Spurs finishing above Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City or Chelsea, but I'm a big fan of Frank, and if he can move a few more astute signings, I don't think they will be a million miles off fourth.

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