Premier League Stats: Key Stats & Suggested Bet for Every Match in Gameweek 4

The top flight returns after the international break with a weekend featuring the Manchester derby, two all-London clashes and Ange Postecoglou’s bow as Forest manager.

Dan Thomas is here with the best betting angles and Premier League Stats for every match as we head into Gameweek 4...

*You can check out all of our Premier League Odds & Betting Markets over on betfred.com

• Arsenal vs Nottingham Forest 
• Saturday, 12:30 
• Live on TNT Sports 1 

Key stat: Arsenal have won their last six home games in all competitions against Forest by an aggregate score of 19-2. They are unbeaten in 14 on home soil against the Tricky Trees.  

Suggested bet: A tough start to life at Forest for Ange Postecoglou as he visits the red half of his old north London stomping ground. While he'll no doubt instil more of an attacking mentality into his new side given time, the Gunners are a hard team to break down and a third win-to-nil from four games for Mikel Arteta's men looks like a solid play, at an odds-against price. 

• Bournemouth vs Brighton  
• Saturday, 15:00 

Key stat: Bournemouth's David Brooks has created four 'big chances' in the Premier League, the most of any player so far this season. 

Suggested bet: Bournemouth have bounced back superbly from opening day defeat at Anfield, with two well deserved wins over Wolves and Tottenham. Welsh midfielder Brooks put on a masterclass at the Tottenham Hotspur stadium, and we'll back him to assist a goal against a Brighton team, who have blown hot and cold so far this season.  

• Crystal Palace vs Sunderland 
• Saturday, 15:00 

Key stat: Crystal Palace have lost just one of their last 16 Premier League matches against newly promoted sides, while Sunderland are yet to score a first half goal in the league this season. 

Suggested bet: Palace will no doubt be relieved to get back to playing actual football rather than worrying about the transfer window and they'll be looking to build on that superb win at Villa last time out. Sunderland have had a positive start to the season, but they are slow starters. We'll back the hosts to pick up three points in a double with under 1.5 goals in the first half at 6/4. 

• Everton vs Aston Villa 
• Saturday, 15:00 

Key stat: Everton have won five of their last six Premier League games, while Aston Villa have failed to score in their first three league games. 

Suggested bet: It was a dream start for Everton at their new stadium, beating Brighton 2-0, and they are taking plenty of momentum into the clash with a Villa side who have looked a shadow of themselves so far this season. With the uncertainty of the transfer window behind him, Unai Emery will get the team going at some point, but 6/4 on a home win looks big. 

• Fulham vs Leeds United 
• Saturday, 15:00 

Key stat: The last four Premier League meetings between Fulham and Leeds have produced 18 goals, with both sides finding the net in each match. 

Suggested bet: While historical trends are generally to be treated with caution, certain match-ups do have a tendency of producing entertainment and that's true of these two in recent times. Fulham are yet to win a game this season so will need to be on the front foot and that could leave spaces for Leeds to exploit. We'll take the even money on three goals or more.  

• Newcastle United vs Wolves 
• Saturday, 15:00 

Key stat: Newcastle United are winless in five Premier League games, while Wolves have lost all three of their league encounters this season. 

Suggested bet: The topline stats suggest something has to give when these sides meet at St James on Saturday but Newcastle's performances so far this season have deserved more - they had a higher xG against both Villa and Liverpool, despite only picking up a single point. Wolves are in a sorry state and we'll take Eddie Howe's men to win to nil at 6/5.

• West Ham vs Tottenham 
• Saturday, 17:30 
• Live on Sky Sports Main Event / Sky Sports Premier League 

Key stat: The last three Premier League meetings between West Ham and Tottenham at the London Stadium have all ended as 1-1 draws and Spurs are winless in five league visits since a 3-2 win in November 2019, in what was Jose Mourinho's first game in charge.  

Suggested bet: This column will very rarely suggest a correct score bet but sometimes the stats just stare you in the face. Tottenham came back down to earth with a bump against Bournemouth, while West Ham pulled off perhaps the shock of the season so far in hammering Nottingham Forest 3-0, after a poor start to the campaign. Both sides will probably be happy enough with a point in this tea time derby clash.  

• Brentford vs Chelsea 
• Saturday, 20:00 
• Live on Sky Sports Main Event / Sky Sports Premier League 

Key stat: Chelsea kept just four clean sheets in their first 26 Premier League games under Enzo Maresca but have since kept nine in their last 15, conceding only eight goals. 

Suggested bet: After shaking off the Club World Cup rustiness in the opener against Palace, Chelsea went on to win two London derbies against West Ham and Fulham in comfortable fashion and they can make it three capital victories in a row at Brentford on Saturday night. With the away win priced at just 8/11, we'll add in another clean sheet for the parsimonious Blues which boosts it to 2/1. 

• Burnley vs Liverpool 
• Sunday, 14:00 
• Live on Sky Sports Main Event / Sky Sports Premier League 

Key stat: Liverpool have won eight of their nine away Premier League matches at Burnley winning the last six in a row and, overall, the Clarets have lost 14 of their 18 league matches against the Reds.  

Suggested bet: Burnley won their opener at Turf Moor and almost secured a point at Old Trafford last time out, but it's hard to see anything other than a Liverpool win on Sunday. The Reds have looked vulnerable at times, however, conceding twice to Newcastle and Bournemouth, so we'll back the Clarets to find the net in a losing effort. 

• Manchester City vs Manchester United 
• Sunday, 16:30 
• Live on Sky Sports Main Event / Sky Sports Premier League 

Key stat: Man Utd captain Bruno Fernandes has created the most chances in the Premier League this season so far both overall (12) and in open play (8). 

Suggested bet: In one of the more unusual statistical quirks of the Premier League, the home team has ended on the winning side in just six out of the last 20 top flight meetings in the Manchester derby. City have had a poor start to the season and look vulnerable to fast attacks, but United are far too untrustworthy to be backed in any form. Instead, we'll back talisman Bruno to assist a goal for Ruben Amorim's men. 

Dan Thomas Premier League Stats P&L 2025/26:

• Stakes: 30
• Returns: 24.28
• Profit: -5.72

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