Premier League Relegation Odds: Latest Everton points deduction changes picture

After a 13-game winless run in the Premier League stretching back to mid-December, a 1-0 victory over Burnley on Saturday looked to have eased Everton’s relegation concerns. The triumph lifted the Toffees into 15th on 29 points, four above 18th-placed Luton Town who, currently, are set to join Championship-elect Sheffield United and Burnley in England’s second tier next season.

However, a dagger was dug into the hearts of Blues on Monday afternoon as the Merseyside club were hit with a further two-point deduction, adding to the six points - reduced from the original 10-point penalty - they have already been docked. Sean Dyche’s side have subsequently dropped below Brentford and into 16th on 27 points, just two points ahead of Nottingham Forest and Luton.

Two points may not seem like an earth-shattering deduction, but the margins are already fine in the relegation race, and it certainly changes the dynamic. Before today’s news filtered through, Betfred had Everton listed as 6/1 to be relegated. Unsurprisingly, that price has now changed, so without further ado, let’s have a look at the latest 2023/24 Premier League relegation odds…

Sheffield Utd @ 1/500

Let’s keep this one short and sweet. We took a little look at the Blades back in January and pondered whether a dramatic late draw with West Ham United could inspire perhaps the most shocking Premier League survival story of all time.

The conclusion was, well, no - but did we expect five defeats in the next six and 21 goals conceded? It’s been a pretty poor effort by the South Yorkshire outfit to retain their league status, with Chris Wilder failing to create miracles on his return to the hot seat.

Three draws in their last four has at least given them a four-point cushion on the division’s worst-ever side, Derby County, who only managed a meagre 11 points by the end of the 2007/08 campaign. They’re also a point better off than the 15 managed by Huddersfield Town in 2018/19, but odds of 50/1 to stay up say it all.

Burnley @ 1/16

The Clarets were a dark-horse pick for many observers at the start of the season, with Vincent Kompany tipped to possibly inspire a mid-table finish with a side that had just romped to the Championship title.

However, there’s been very little to shout about on their return to the big time, with Burnley only three points further ahead of Sheffield United on 19 points. The Lancashire club are six points off 17th-placed Forest, who currently occupy the final survival slot, with just six games remaining. A four-match unbeaten run had inspired some confidence, but Saturday’s 1-0 defeat at Goodison Park has dented their chances of a late-season surge up the table.

Brighton (H), Sheffield United (A), Manchester United (A), Newcastle United (H), Tottenham Hotspur (A) and Forest (H) are left for the Clarets to face, and while that isn’t the most daunting fixture list in the world, it’s hard to imagine them winning four games - which is probably what they require at the very minimum - when they’ve only managed that number in their first 32 games.

It’s 7/1 for Burnley to stay up if you’re feeling very, very adventurous.

Luton Town 8/13

The people’s favourites? Pats on the backs won’t do the Hatters any good, but Luton have been a fine addition to the Premier League, evoking memories of Blackpool under Ian Holloway in 2010/11.

It ended in tears for the Seasiders though, as their free-flowing football ultimately led to a final-day defeat at Manchester United which sunk them into the Premier League quicksand. Will Luton suffer the same fate?

A 2-1 victory over AFC Bournemouth on Saturday has reignited belief after a 10-game winless run which had eroded confidence. So many times this season Luton have been cruelly denied in the final few minutes of a match, but they’ve also picked up a habit of scoring late on themselves.

That desire to go to the end was evident at Kenilworth Road against the Cherries and defeat for Forest at Spurs the following day means the sides are now locked together in the table.

Typically, the Hatters head next to the Etihad to face Manchester City who, at the time of writing, are 25 games unbeaten. How’s your luck?

There are five winnable games after their trip to Manchester, though, with Brentford (H), Wolves (A), Everton (H), West Ham (A) and Fulham (H) closing their campaign out.

With the grit - and quality - instilled in this Luton outfit under Rob Edwards, 5/4 for them to stay up starts to look quite tempting, though appeals over points deduction handed to their rivals could be a sting in the tail later down the line.

Nottingham Forest @ 15/8

It’s been a pretty dismal calendar year so far for Forest, who have won just twice in the league in 2024. A four-point penalty for allegedly breaching profit and sustainability rules was a further blow last month, though the club have lodged an appeal against that charge.

The Premier League have said that any appeal hearing should “conclude no later than and if possible some time before May 24” - five days after the final round of fixtures for this season.

Therefore, Forest must continue to fight for as many points as possible, knowing that there is a chance that their total will not be further bolstered in a courtroom after the football has finished.

Home form could be key for Forest, who have taken four points from their last two games at the City Ground. Wolves, Man City and Chelsea are the final three opponents in West Bridgford, while their last three away trips are to relegation-threatened sides - Everton, Sheffield United and Burnley.

Keeping Chris Wood fit could be key to Nuno Espirito Santo’s side securing survival - the New Zealand international has struck in his last four games, three of which Forest have taken points from. Prior to that, Wood had played just one of their last five league games - missing four through injury - and the Reds lost three times.

Forest are currently 4/11 to stay up, but those odds could be boosted dramatically by a decision in their favour at the appeals court.

Everton @ 7/2

And now we reach the club that has barely been out of the headlines all season - Everton. The Toffees have been in a sticky spot for much of the campaign with rumours and reports over alleged breaches of the Premier League’s Profitability and Sustainability Rules (PSR).

Everton were deducted 10 points in November but successfully appealed to have the penalty reduced to six, and they have confirmed that they have "begun the preparations to appeal” the Commission's latest decision.

On the pitch, though, there have been improvements, of sorts. A draw at Newcastle United on Tuesday was followed by a 1-0 victory over Burnley on the weekend, and they are two points clear of the relegation zone even with the two points taken away from them today.

The Blues also have a game in hand on Forest and Luton, and have, in theory, three winnable games - against Forest, Brentford and Sheffield United - left at Goodison Park.

Liverpool also visit for the Merseyside derby next month and there are trips to Chelsea, Luton and Arsenal before the season is out.

Everton aren’t exactly flush with goals in the team, but as you’d expect with a Dyche side, they are no pushovers. 42 goals conceded is the best defensive record in the bottom half, and keeping up those sort of numbers could be the key to keeping themselves in the league.

There is a lot still up in the air at both Everton and Nottingham Forest, and the ramifications could be monumental for the rest of the division

Crystal Palace @ 16/1

Oliver Glasner had an instant impact at Selhurst Park, winning his first game in charge against Burnley on February 24, but the Austrian hasn’t tasted victory since.

The Eagles have picked up just two points from their last five games and have some tough games on the horizon, with trips to Liverpool, Fulham and Wolves and home matches against West Ham, Newcastle, Man United and Aston Villa.

The return to fitness of Michael Olise could prove pivotal, though, The 22-year-old came on as a second-half substitute on Saturday, his first appearance since February 3, and with Jean-Philippe Mateta in the goals, Palace should have more than enough to make sure of their Premier League status. 

Brentford @ 22/1

Similar things can be said of Brentford, who were able to hand a first start since December 6 to Bryan Mbuemo in Saturday’s 3-3 draw with Aston Villa.

The Cameroon international has been a big miss for the Bees, who haven’t won any of their last nine games.

But the return of Mbuemo, alongside that of Ivan Toney and others racing to be back fit, should get them over the line.

While victories have been difficult to come by, Thomas Frank’s side are unbeaten in their last three, with their latest stalemate coming at Villa Park after being two-goals down.

That sort of fighting spirit is paramount in a survival race, and their remaining fixture list - Sheffield United (H), Luton (A), Everton (A), Fulham (H), Bournemouth (A) and Newcastle (H) - looks kind.

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.