Portugal vs Poland Prediction: Visitors good for a goal but hosts good for the win

It’s Portugal vs Poland on Friday 15th November (19:45), a match between a Portugal side looking to qualify for the next stage and a Poland side looking to salvage pride. YouTube will stream the action.

Portugal-based James Pacheco has 15/8 and 5/6 selections going for him here, so read on to see why he likes them as he takes us through his Portugal vs Poland Predictions for Friday's Nations League fixture...

Portugal  

It's been a near-flawless campaign for Portugal so far with three wins a draw away at Scotland, the last time they were in action.  

Three points ahead of Croatia and with a superior goal difference, a win here should be enough to see them qualify for the next stage which, as the strongest side in the Group on paper, was no more than was expected when they started out back in September.  

Cristiano Ronaldo is once again included in the squad for the two matches over the next few days and having done all the hard work, it would be somewhat careless for Roberto Martine to play anything but his best side here. Win this one and they'll be almost home and dry; they certainly will be if they win, and Croatia fail to do the same against Scotland.  

The good form of Premier League-based pair Bruno Fernandes and Pedro Neto is a big bonus and both should feature.  

Possible Starting Line-up: Costa, Dalot, Dias, Araujo, Mendes, Palhinha, Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, Pedro Neto, Leao, Ronaldo.   

Poland  

It's been a disappointing campaign for Poland with just one win from their four matches to date. It would be very difficult for them to leapfrog Croatia into second place and almost impossible to top the Group, so they're pretty much just playing for pride here.  

There were a few players with niggles and suffering from a bit of fatigue during the week but most or all of those should be fit to play when the match comes around.  

However, that doesn't include Robert Lewandowski, who has been ruled out with a back injury. He may be 36 but he's averaged better than a goal a game this season for his club Barcelona, so is obviously a huge miss for them.  

Possible Starting Line-up: Skorupski, Dawidowicz, Kiwior, Bednarek, Zielinski, Oyedele, Zielinski, Szymanski, Zalewski, Swiderski, Piatek. 

Portugal vs Poland Odds

Portugal are just 1/4, which is implied probability of 80%. It's 5/1 the draw (16.7%) and 11/1 the away win (8.3%).  

Those odds on the hosts may initially seem on the short side but there seems to be a considerable gulf in quality between these two teams at the moment, backed up by the very different results they've had in this competition over the past few months. A look at the playing resources they both have seems to confirm that theory, too.  

As does the 3-1 scoreline to Portugal when they played back in early October in Poland; the absence of Lewandowski doesn't help the away side's cause, either.  

Portugal to Win + Both Teams to Score  

At 8/11 you can back a Portugal win with over 2.5 goals in the match and there should be some takers of that, who will feel that Portugal could really put their foot on the accelerator here and go on to win 3-0 or 4-0, especially with competition for places so strong and forwards looking to impress, against a somewhat demoralised side.  

But at a much bigger 15/8, I prefer the home win with both teams scoring. Portugal's 0-0 in Scotland last time out was a bit of an anomaly because Ronaldo and co have scored at least two goals in their other three matches and also conceded in all of those three.  

As for Poland, it's also the case that three of their four matches in this year's Nations League have seen both teams scoring. And if you need further evidence of this being a likely BTTS match, here it is: all of the last four matches between these sides has seen goals at both ends.  

The visitors will have to find an alternative goalscorer to Lewandowski for our bet to win, not to mention us needing Portugal themselves to win; but the stats certainly suggest a home win with a Poland goal is the way to go.