Portugal vs Denmark Prediction: 1-0 and 2-1 lively correct score runners in Lisbon

A huge game in the Nations League sees Portugal host Denmark as they look to turn the tie around after Denmark’s thoroughly deserved 1-0 win on Thursday night.  YouTube will be streaming this game live from 19:45 on Sunday evening.

Jamie Pacheco thinks extra-time and possibly penalties could be on the cards so 1-0 and 2-1 at 11/2 and 7/1 could be in business.  You can read his preview and of course, those Portugal vs Denmark Predictions below...

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Portugal  

There's good news for Portugal. They're 'only' 1-0 down when it could easily have been 3-0 after the first leg and they're perfectly capable of turning things around at home if they seriously improve and play like we know they can. But more on that in a minute.  

They have keeper Diogo Costa to thank for still being alive in the tie after the Porto man saved a penalty from Christian Eriksen with a fine dive to his right and made another couple of excellent saves. In total he made eight saves and there was little or nothing he could have done about the goal.  

But his performance and the several rescue acts of his own by Ruben Dias were just about the only positives as they lacked energy, rhythm, organisation and at times even tactical discipline. In the past Portugal's big flaw has been not scoring enough goals given the chances they create, but on Thursday that was almost the least of their worries. This was easily their worst performance in an important match in the last two years or so.  

It will be interesting to see if Roberto Martinez decides to go with a similar strategy and line-up again and hope for better results, or make changes to his XI. Pedro Neto and Vitinha may be vulnerable if he goes for changes with Ruben Neves and Diogo Jota their likeliest replacements.  

Likely XI: Costa, Dalot, Dias, Inacio/Veiga, Mendes, Joao Neves, Fernandes, Vitinha/Ruben Neves, Neto/Jota, Leao, Ronaldo.   

Denmark 

Denmark on the other hand put in an excellent performance. If they played like that all the time, they'd be perennial contenders for semi-final spots at all the major competitions.  

Keeper Casper Schmeichel probably had the quietest game of anyone and that was simply because he had little or nothing to do all game.  

As hinted above, the only thing they didn't do so well was convert more of their chances although to be fair there were some great saves and last-ditch tackles that prevented them from getting more because it wasn't necessarily a case of poor finishing.   

Let's see if Hojlund starts here after coming off the bench to score the winner or if he's deemed to be more useful as an impact sub. The rest of the team should remain the same.  

Likely XI: Schmeichel, Andersen, Vestergaard, Kristensen, Isaksen, Maehle, Eriksen, Hjulmand, Norgaard, Biereth, Lindstrem/Hojlund.  

Portugal vs Denmark Odds 

Portugal are 4/7 here (63%) and it's 16/5 (24%) the draw and 9/2 Denmark (18%).  

If Portugal play anything like as badly as they did on Thursday, then Denmark/Draw on the Double Chance market at 13/10 looks a cracking bet.  

But it's somewhat unlikely they'll be that poor again and home comforts at the Estadio Jose Alvalade will at least give them a bit more energy and confidence.  

This is a tough market to play with the straight Portugal win a bit short and the draw at 16/5 probably the pick of the three purely on price. But of course, we don't have to play it.  

Correct Score  

Portugal have always had a rather strange habit of so often forcing extra-time and penalties. Take Euro 2024 where they needed penalties to beat Slovenia before being on the wrong end of a penalty shootout that saw them eliminated by France.  

My theory is that a) They rarely take risks towards the back end of a game with extra time on the horizon and b) They actually don't mind extra-time and penalties because they have a decent record when games go to them.  

And I think home advantage may well balance things out here and that we'll end up with a (reverse) repeat of what happened on Thursday, the home side winning by a single goal, leading to extra time.   

There are different ways to go about betting on such a scenario, of which the best for me is to back both 1-0 (11/2) and 2-1 (7/1) on the correct score market.  

Remember there's no away goals rule in place so either of those would take the match into extra-time.   

Half Time Result  

This could be a bit of a slow burner with Portugal happy to bide their time knowing that they only need one goal to force extra-time, not two, and Denmark knowing that the longer it stays 0-0, the better for them.  

So it could be a cagey opening 45 minutes with the hosts working out what their best method of scoring a goal is and Denmark looking to close them down and make the most of any chances they get on the break.  

It's also not impossible that the visitors do somehow grab a goal, as do Portugal, and that we go into the break at 1-1 rather than 0-0. But the half-time draw at 5/4 covers both those possibilities and looks a decent wager, too.  

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Football Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Football hub page...