Portugal vs Croatia Prediction: Back the Narrow Home Win

It's Portugal v Croatia on Thursday, September 5, 2024 (19:45) at Benfica's Estadio da Luz as both sides look to get their first Nations League points on the board. 

Portugal-based James Pacheco thinks the hosts should win but it could be tight, with the correct score market proving the best betting options as he previews the encounter and gives us his best Portugal vs Croatia Predictions...

*You can check out all of our Football Odds over at betfred.com

Portugal  

A new era starts now after a somewhat mediocre performance at Euro 2024 that included a penalty shootout win in the Last 16 and a penalty shootout defeat to France in the quarters. 

Or does it? The fact that Cristiano Ronaldo at 39 is still there after being arguably the poorest performer from among the regular starters at the tournament tells you some things never seem to change with this Portugal side. Everyone will have their opinion about whether CR7 should still be called up and automatically start every game. So here's mine: he shouldn't.  

Elsewhere, a few familiar names like Joao Cancelo and Danilo have been left out, while Pepe has retired from international football. 17-year-old Geovany Quenda joins Sporting Lisbon team-mates Francisco Trincao and Pedro Goncalves as surprise call-ups. It will be interesting to see how much these three feature.  

Possible Starting Line-up: Costa, Dalot, Dias, Antonio Silva, Mendes, Palhinha, Vitinha, Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes, Jota, Ronaldo.   

Croatia  

Croatia can consider themselves pretty unlucky to have exited Euro 2024 at the Group Stages, that 98th minute goal from Italy in their last match hurting them hard as it meant they didn't even qualify for the next round as one of the best-third- placed finishers.  But in truth, it was a side that looked a few notches below the ones that made the 2018 World Cup final, knocked Brazil out of the 2022 World Cup and were runners-up at last year's Nations League.  

Croatia have their own 39-year-old skipper involved with Luka Modrić postponing retirement for the time being. The smart money is on him being given 60-odd minutes here whatever the state of play.  

The brilliant and brilliantly versatile Josko Gvardiol will marshal the defence, fellow Man City star Mateo Kovacic is their all-action man in midfield while veterans Ivan Perišić and Andrej Kamaric are tasked with creating and scoring respectively in more advanced positions.  

Possible Staring Line-up:  Livakovic, Stanisic, Sutalo, Pongracic, Gvardiol,Modric, Kovacic, Pasalic, Sucic, Kramaric, Perisic.   

Portugal vs Croatia Odds 

Portugal, on home soil, are 8/15. If they play like the side who had an 100% record in qualifying for the Euros, that's a decent price. If they play like the side who were pretty dire for their last three  games at the tournament, failing to score in any of them, then it's not.  

Still, the hosts have a strong record against a side who has always been competitive since going it alone as a nation in 1992 with five wins, two draws and a sole defeat, which curiously, was in a friendly at home (1-2) just before this year's Euros.  

It's 11/4 the draw and 9/2 Croatia.  

But we obviously don't have to play this market, so we won't.  

Correct Score  

At far bigger prices, you can split your stakes between Portugal to win 1-0 or 2-0.  

One of those two would have paid out in Euro 2024 qualifying matches against Iceland (twice), Slovakia and Liechtenstein. 

Croatia don't have too much upfront these days while Portugal have been pretty solid at the back these last couple of years and they did after all, keep clean sheets in three of their five games at the Euros, including against France.  

I also don't think the floodgates will open in terms of Portugal goals, nor do they need to bust a gut to rack up the goals with another match on the cards just three days later. So those two scores look lively runners. 1-0 is 5/1 and 2-0 is 6/1.  

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Football Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Football hub page...