Portugal vs Belgium Prediction: Massive odds to oppose the Portuguese

Portugal still have an outside shot of making it out of their group at the European Championship, but they will need to beat Belgium in their final group game (20:00 BST, BBC One). They secured a 1-1 draw with Italy last time out which means they could leapfrog the Italians if they can secure a win and the goal difference goes in their favour. 

Below you can find my Portugal vs Belgium predictions featuring team news and more. 

Team News

Portugal are going to be without their captain Ana Borges for this one after she was sent off late against Italy, so Jessica Silva, Catarina Amado or Andreia Jacinto should start on the right depending on how attacking manager Francisco Neto wants to be from the off. 

Sevilla centre-back Diana Gomes bagged that all-important equaliser late on last time out, and she will start as part of the back three along with Carole Costa and Fatimo Pinto. Sporting’s Diana Silva and Ana Capeta should continue as the front two despite drawing a blank between them so far. 

For Belgium, they know that their tournament is over, but will want to end on a high. Jassina Blom and Elena Dhont will be pushing to get into this team, while Belgium could come out of the back five they have played to date with nothing to lose. 

Captain Tessa Wullaert got two assists against Spain in the 6-2 defeat, with Everton’s Justine Vanhaevermaet and Hannah Eurlings finding the net against the world champions. Lisa Lichtfus is clinging on to her place in goal having conceded six last time out, with a decent option in the form of Femke Bastiaen waiting in the wings. 

Portugal vs Belgium Odds 

Portugal are priced at 5/6 to win this game, giving them an implied win probability of 54% for this crunch clash. A draw is 11/4, Belgium are priced at 16/5 to secure three points and over 2.5 goals is 8/11. 

BTTS is 4/6 while Silva is the favourite to open the scoring at 5/1. 

Belgium to win @ 16/5

Now I think that there’s massive value to be had by backing Belgium to win this game against a Portugal outfit that rescued a draw against Italy, but haven’t looked that good in the other matches we’ve seen from them of late. 

They’ve now failed to win each of their last seven fixtures, and the point against Italy doesn’t do anything to convince me about their chances. Belgium have lost two from two and are out, but that could give them some freedom here - while they did well to score twice against a Spain team that I’m expecting to go all the way. 

Importantly, these two met in the Nations League earlier in the year. The results? A 1-0 win to Portugal followed by a 3-0 win to Belgium. 3-0 in their most-recent meeting and we are getting above 3/1 to back them to win again here? That’s utter madness. 

Portugal had one shot on target against Italy and scored - creating a total xG of 0.32 in that 1-1 draw. Their xG against Spain was 0.29, compared to Belgium’s 0.76 v the Spanish, while they also performed better than the Portuguese did in a statistical attacking sense against Italy. I’m more than happy to back Belgium to win this game and finish with a flourish - with Portugal far too short in my eyes to take the win. 

Today's Football Fixtures

Belgium to win to nil @ 7/1

Sorry to go on about this and basically pick the same selection twice, but the value on offer is too good to turn down. Portugal have scored just two goals in their last six games, and failed to get near Belgium in that recent 3-0 defeat - so backing Elisabet Gunnarsdottir’s women to win to nil for a second time is sensible at 7/1.

Belgium are ranked 20th in the world, Portugal are ranked 22nd - and in that Nations League group, Belgium finished on six points - even beating England - with Portugal finishing on four. I’m more than happy to take a gamble on a big price in this final group game.

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