Portsmouth vs Leeds Prediction: Injuries could hamper Pompey’s afternoon

League leaders Leeds United face a tough trip to the South Coast on Sunday afternoon as they take on Portsmouth at Fratton Park (12:00, Sky Sports Football). Daniel Farke’s side stumbled at home to West Brom last time out as they drew 1-1, but the title is still in their hands as they don't have to face any team in the top six between now and the end of the season. 

Below you can find my Portsmouth vs Leeds prediction featuring team news and betting tips.

Team News

Portsmouth are in a real crisis when it comes to injuries, especially in defence. Rob Atkinson and Conor Shaughnessy our out for 6-8 weeks while Hayden Matthews is out for the rest of the season. It means Marlon Pack is likely to play at centre-back alongside Regan Poole, with John Mousinho not particularly keen on Ryley Towler.

Callum Lang is the major loss to this team and he is also out for the season with a torn hamstring meaning that Sunderland loanee Adil Aouchiche is likely to start as the number 10. Josh Murphy and Matt Ritchie will continue to provide the width, while Colby Bishop will lead the line. 

Ethan Ampadu and Max Wober are both out of this one from a Leeds perspective, with returns for the duo not likely over the next few weeks. Patrick Bamford’s constant injury problems have plagued his season and will rule him out, while Mateo Joseph is a doubt with a fitness issue. 

It means Joel Piroe will continue to lead the line, playing ahead of number 10 Brenden Aaronson. Wilfried Gnonto is hoping to fight his way back into the XI, but the good form of Manor Soloman and Dan James means they are likely to keep their shirts in the wide positions. 

Joe Rothwell will partner Ao Tanaka once again in the engine room, while Junior Firpo scored against the Baggies and will hope to provide attacking thrust from left-back. 

Portsmouth vs Leeds Odds

Pompey are the rank outsiders for this clash, priced at 7/1 to win, despite winning eight of their 17 home matches so far. Leeds are the 4/11 favourites to win this game, giving them an implied win percentage of 73% for this one. A draw can be backed at 4/1 while BTTS is priced at 1/1. 

Portsmouth lead the way in the over 2.5 goals statistic in the Championship this season, sitting at a success rate of 66%. That can be backed to come in again at 8/11, while Leeds’ hitman Joel Piroe is unsurprisingly the shortest price to score first at 7/2. 

Joel Piroe to score anytime @ 23/20

Piroe is a simply magnificent finisher and he is getting better and better as the season goes on for Leeds. Having lost his starting spot to Joseph earlier at the start of the campaign, now he has well and truly won back the shirt and will lead the line again. 

He’s now up to 15 for the season and the Golden Boot is within reach, given Borja Sainz has stopped scoring for Norwich in recent months. No other player has scored more goals than Piroe this term, and he’s on a run of five goals in six games - a record I feel should improve against this wounded Pompey backline. 

He is pretty deadly when given the ball in the 18-yard box, and I think his name will appear on the scoresheet by the time the afternoon is over. 

Over 2.5 away goals @ 13/8

Now I’m going to back Leeds from a couple of angles with these selections but I do think their 4/11 price is a bit short for the outright win. Portsmouth have been a very good team at Fratton Park this term, having picked up 29 of their 39 points to date on home soil. They’ve beaten the likes of play-off chasing Coventry and Bristol City on home soil, while they also drew 0-0 with third-place Burnley, so they can give any team a game when at their best. 

However, I just cannot escape that dreadful injury list which has hampered not only their back line but their attacking threat in the form of Lang. All in all, Pompey have done very well to put a decent gap in between themselves and the bottom three with three wins out of four, but they were handed a blow as they lost 1-0 at Luton in midweek. I think despite their strong home showings they could be in for a difficult afternoon against the best team in the division. 

There’s goals in the Pompey team, but I feel they will struggle at the back, so let’s pick Leeds to score three or more goals at 13/8. 

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