Porto vs Roma Prediction: A third straight draw for Dragoes?

Arguably the pick of Thursday's Uefa Europa League knockout phase play-off first-leg ties comes from Portugal as two-time winners Porto host two-time runners-up Roma at the Estadio do Dragao (20:00, TNT Sports 2). Just two points separated the 18th-placed Dragoes and I Giallorossi (15th) in the 36-team league phase, but there are contrasting moods around the clubs heading into this fixture.

Below are my Porto vs Roma predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Ivan Marcano (knee), Marko Grujic and Martim Fernandes (both muscle) missed Porto's 1-1 draw with Sporting last Friday and the trio are ruled out of their side's first-leg match against Roma.

Brazilian defender Otavio, who has scored in two of his last three games, was suspended for the visit of the reigning Primeira Liga champions last week but is free to return to action on Thursday. He will likely replace Jose Pedro in Martin Anselmi's starting XI.

Former Reading forward Danny Namaso - formerly Danny Loader - did his chances of earning an opportunity from the off no harm by coming off the bench to net Porto's equaliser against Sporting.

Football Odds

Leandro Paredes and Mats Hummels were both absent from the Roma squad that went to Venice last Sunday and beat Venezia 1-0; however, the duo are expected to be available for Thursday's contest.

It's been reported in the Italian press that skipper Lorenzo Pellegrini, who was an unused substitute on the weekend, will be benched again this week, although he could be brought on in the second half.

Manu Kone should return to the midfield after suspension ruled him out against Venezia, while Alexis Saelemaekers could also be restored to the starting XI.

Paulo Dybala and Artem Dovbyk are expected to continue in attack.

Porto vs Roma Odds

Porto won two of their first three Europa League matches at home this season before losing to Olympiakos in their final league phase game at the Dragao on January 23, and they are without a win on home soil in all competitions since January 28 when they beat Boavista 4-0 in the Primeira Liga. Anselmi was announced as Porto's new head coach on January 28, joining the Portuguese giants from Mexican club Cruz Azul, and he led his new side to a 1-0 win over Maccabi Tel Aviv in his first contest in charge.

Anselmi has subsequently overseen a couple of draws in the league, meaning he is unbeaten in his first three games as Porto boss, but he'll be looking to secure his first home triumph on Thursday. The Dragons are 11/8 to take a lead into next week's second leg in Rome, implying a 42.1% chance of success, while the visitors are 2/1, or a 33.3% chance, to head back to the Italian capital with the advantage.

The draw is priced at 12/5, both teams to score at 8/11, and over 2.5 total goals at 10/11.

Porto's leading marksman this season, Samu Aghehowa, who struck five times in the league phase, is 7/4 favourite to score anytime, followed by Roma forwards Dovbyk (2/1) and Dybala (5/2).

Match Result - Draw @ 12/5

It's been a turbulent last couple of months at the Dragao with Vitor Bueno losing six of his final 16 games before being sacked as Porto boss. A defeat to Olympiakos and a draw to Santa Clara followed in Bueno's absence before Anselmi arrived to stop the rot, ending a five-match winless run by beating Maccabi Tel Aviv.

The Argentine hasn't been able to inspire much magic since, with a 2-2 draw at Rio Ave arriving four days after that Europa League victory before last Friday's stalemate against Sporting, although the side will take confidence from netting a stoppage-time equaliser against the reigning Portuguese league champions.

Roma, meanwhile, have been transformed under Ranieri's stewardship, winning nine of their last 15 games, and head into Thursday's contest on the back of a 1-0 win against Venezia in Serie A, a competition in which they are unbeaten in their last eight.

I Giallorossi haven't been sparkling away from home, however, winning just twice on their travels under the 'Tinkerman', although those victories have come in their last three away games.

Roma failed to win a league phase match away from Rome, losing 1-0 to Elfsborg and drawing 1-1 to Union Saint-Gilloise under Ivan Juric before Ranieri presided over a 2-2 stalemate at Tottenham Hotspur and a 1-0 defeat to AZ Alkmaar.

The Dragao can be an intimidating ground to visit, even at Porto's worst, and so Roma may well be happy to take a draw and settle the tie back at the Stadio Olimpico where they are unbeaten in their last eight games, seven of which they have won.

Porto, of course, will be desperate to make home advantage count and head to Italy next Thursday at least one goal ahead, but they're in a difficult spot right now and might have to hope for something special in the second leg.

Bet Builder - Otavio Ataide da Silva (POR) Carded @ 9/4

Otavio was suspended for last week's stalemate with Sporting but had started Porto's previous three games, including Anselmi's first two in charge, as the left-sided centre-back in a back three. Tiago Djalo shuffled over from the right side of defence to the left last Thursday but Otavio's return should see both played on their natural side.

In his last match, a 2-2 draw at Rio Ave on February 3, Otavio was booked, earning his fifth yellow card of the 2024/25 Primeira Liga campaign, in just 14 appearances. The Brazilian averages 1.1 fouls per game in the Portuguese top flight, but in Europe, he averages 1.7 fouls per game, albeit he played just three times in the Europa League league phase.

The 22-year-old committed two fouls in his last home game in the competition and three last time out against Maccabi Tel Aviv.

On Thursday, his direct opponent could be Dybala who has been fouled, on average, 1.7 times per game in the Europa League this season, which is down on 2.5 times per game in Serie A.

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