Porto vs Olympiakos Prediction: Managerless Dragons to huff and puff without winning reward

FC Porto (19th) and Olympiakos (15th) are separated by just a single point in the Uefa Europa League standings and the two clubs face off at the Estadio do Dragao on Thursday (17:45, TNT Sports 6), each looking to strengthen their qualification hopes.

Below is my Porto vs Olympiakos prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this midweek league phase meeting in Portugal.

Team News

Vitor Bruno, hired last summer as the successor to Sergio Conceicao, was sacked as Porto head coach on Monday following three consecutive defeats this year, the latest of which was a 3-1 defeat to Gil Vicente a day prior. The 42-year-old leaves the Dragons third in the Portuguese Primeira Liga but 18th (now 19th following Besiktas' win on Wednesday) in the 36-team Europa League league phase table after six games played in the competition (W2, D2, L2).

Porto president Andre Villas-Boas will be one of the prominent figures in the search for Bruno's replacement but in the meantime, Jose Tavares has been appointed as interim boss, and one of his first tasks will be to name a starting XI on Thursday that can claim all three points against Olympiakos.

However, Tavares won't be able to call upon injured trio Marko Grujic (heel), Wendell (muscular) and Ivan Marcano (knee), although the latter is back in training.

Nico Gonzalez was sent off in the 83rd minute on Sunday but his suspension only applies to domestic fixtures so he will be available to line up against Olympiakos, as will leading goalscorer Samu Agahowa who received a red after the final whistle at Gil Vicente. With Nico and Samu out of Sunday's Primeira Liga game against Santa Clara, expect both players to start in midweek.

Football Odds

Yusuf Yacizi (ACL) is a long-term injury absentee for Olympiakos, who are also missing the suspended Santiago Hezze on Thursday as the Argentine midfielder serves a one-game ban for an accumulation of yellow cards in the competition. Former Porto ace Sergio Oliveira or 18-year-old Christos Mouzakitis could replace Hezze and partner Dani Garcia in midfield.

Another ex-Porto player, David Carmo, will also be hoping to earn a start at his old stomping ground, although he's recently fallen out of favour and may have to settle for a place on the bench again.

Porto vs Olympiakos Odds

Porto have lost each of their last three domestic games against Sporting, Nacional and Gil Vicente but did beat Midtjylland 2-0 at the Dragao last time out in the Europa League, their second home victory in the competition this season after kicking off their campaign there with a 3-3 draw against Manchester United. The Dragons are 8/13 to remain unbeaten at home and claim a third success in four matches there, giving the Portuguese hosts an implied win probability of 61.9%, while their Greek visitors are 9/2, or an 18.2% chance, to get back to winning ways in Europe following three matches without a victory in the second-tier competition.

The draw, which has been a winner in Olympiakos' last three league phase outings, is priced at 3/1, and both teams to score at 10/11.

Porto centre-forward Samu, who is joint top scorer in the league phase with five goals, is 5/4 favourite to score anytime followed by teammate Danny Namaso (formerly Loader) at 15/8, with last season's 11-goal Uefa Conference League Golden Boot winner Ayoub El Kaabi, who has struck four times in the 2024/25 Europa League, first up for Olympiakos at 2/1.

Match Result & Both Teams to Score - Draw & Yes @ 4/1

I'm struggling to separate these sides on Thursday with Porto holding home advantage but also suffering recently and sacking their manager without a ready-made replacement lined up. Of course, the mere removal of Bruno from his position could be enough to jolt the side into action, something we've seen many other times at clubs all over the world.

However, I'm also respectful of Olympiakos' record in this season's Europa League. The Piraeus-based club have lost just once in the league phase, going down 2-0 to Lyon in France on matchday one before beating Braga (3-0) and Malmo (0-1) back-to-back. Jose Luis Mendilibar's side have since recorded three successive stalemates in the competition, drawing 1-1 with Rangers in Greece before games against FCSB and FC Twente, in Romania and Greece, respectively, finished goalless.

Porto, meanwhile, have drawn twice in the league phase, firstly at home against Manchester United and secondly away to Anderlecht (2-2) in Belgium on November 28.

Both teams to score has landed in 66.7 per cent (four) of Porto's six Europa League matches this term, although it's been a winner on just one occasion for Olympiakos. A failure to score in half of their games has contributed to that for Olympiakos, but up against a managerless Porto side that has shipped seven goals in three contests this calendar year, the visitors should back themselves in the final third on Thursday.

A draw wouldn't be ideal for either Porto or Olympiakos but it would at least keep both teams in contention to qualify for the knockouts next week and could end up being an agreeable result considering the home side's recent form and upheaval, and with the visitors aware of the difficulties of playing at the Dragao.

A draw and both teams to score at 4/1 looks good to me.

Bet Builder - Samu Agehowa (POR) Anytime Goalscorer & Ayoub El Kaabi (OLY) Anytime Goalscorer @ 11/2

We head to the Bet Builder tab for my second and final pick of this tips column, and if we select the most likely goalscorers on each side, Samu and El Kaabi, to strike anytime, we can get odds of 11/2. The reasons for choosing both to bag is obvious: they're goal machines.

Samu's exploits in La Liga as a teenager last season on loan at Alaves caught the attention of major clubs across Europe, including Chelsea, but it was Porto that won the race for his signature, and his signing has been a resounding success so far. The 20-year-old has struck 13 times in 15 top-flight appearances for the Dragons and is leading the Europa League Golden Boot race alongside Man United's Rasmus Hojlund, Galatasaray's Yunus Akgun and Ferencvaros' Barnabas Varga, all of whom are on five goals after six rounds of fixtures.

Samu scored four times in his first three competition outings, netting against Bodo/Glimt and Hoffenheim either side of bagging a brace against Man United, and after drawing a blank against Lazio and Anderlecht, he was back on the scoresheet in Porto's last league phase game, a 2-0 win over Midtjylland on December 12.

The Spain international is suspended for Sunday's league fixture so I'm even more confident than I would be usually that he will start and play the majority, if not the duration, of Thursday's contest, which should ensure he has plenty of time to strike past Olympiakos goalkeeper Konstantinos Tzolakis.

On the other side, El Kaabi will be relied upon to pose the biggest threat to the Porto defence. The 31-year-old is only one goal behind Samu in the top scorer charts having struck against Rangers and Malmo to add to his brace against another Portuguese opponent, Braga.

El Kaabi scored his side's second in their 2-1 Greek Super League win over Atromitos last Sunday to bring up his 13th in the competition this season, with only Panserraikos' Jefte Bentancor keeping pace with the Morocco international.

Samu and El Kaabi should both be in a confident mood heading into Thursday's meeting and I fancy the two strikers to fire in front of goal.

Offers

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