Porto vs Benfica Prediction: Goals at both ends but the points to be shared

This is one of the matches that will go a long way to deciding the title race in Portugal, so all eyes on Porto vs Benfica on Sunday night.  

Portugal-based Jamie Pacheco thinks it could be pretty even out there with at least a goal-a-piece so bet accordingly, while there’s also a 5/1 Benfica player to consider for a goal.  Check out his preview and those all-important Porto vs Benfica Predictions below...

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Porto 

Somewhat surprisingly for a side nine points off the two joint-leaders- Sporting and Benfica each on 65 points - Porto are so far unbeaten at home in the league, showing they're quite a different side when they enjoy home comforts, compared to when they're on the road.   

Their recent form has mostly been good with a solid 2-1 win last week at an ever-improving Estoril and before that there was a good 2-0 win over AVS and another away win, this time at Arouca (2-0), though that was admittedly sandwiched between a 1-0 loss at Braga, though there's no disgrace in going there and not picking up points.  

Their two key men play at opposite ends of the pitch with Diogo Costa- also brilliant in Portugal's two-legged win over Denmark in the Nations League- and youngster Samu Aghehowa proving the difference so often. Another making an impact is 17-year-old Rodrigo Mora, just the latest off the young Portuguese playmaker production line who has already scored five for the season and in each of his last two matches.   

Likely XI: Costa, Marcano, Eustaquio, Perez, Vieira, Varela, Joao Mario, Moura, Samu, Pepe, Mora.  

Benfica 

Benfica have an early handicap of having played on Wednesday night against Farense, which they won 3-2, so may be a bit tired for this one. There were some familiar names on the scoresheet with our old friend Pavlidis scoring and assisting and K. Arturkoglu scoring the other two. There was something of a fightback from Farense to make it 3-2 and put some pressure on the Eagles at the end but the latter held on well to claim another three points.  

It means Benfica have now won all of their last nine league matches so they certainly couldn't come into this one in any better form.  

The even better news is that talisman Angel di Maria is somewhere near full fitness after missing a handful of games last month and he scored a penalty in the 3-0 win over Gil Vicente. All-action midfielder Florentino was one card away from a suspension so was wisely left out against Farense and is good to go here.  

Likely XI: Trubin, Dahl, Otamendi, Silva, Carreras, Kokcu, Florentino, Sanches, Arturkoglu, Di Maria, Pavlidis.   

Porto vs Benfica Odds

It's somewhat surprising Benfica are favourites at 7/5 (implied probability 42%). Porto are 9/5 (36%) with the draw 11/5 (31%).  

Sure, Benfica are considerably ahead in the league table, have generally been more consistent in general terms and are on a superb run at the moment.  

But this isn't a visit Portugal's second city to take lightly.  

Not only are Porto unbeaten here all season as we know but Benfica have found this a particularly testing trip over the last few years, winning just one from their last five, drawing one and losing three, including a 5-0 thrashing last season. The safest option may be to take Porto on the Double Chance market at 8/15, but we can find better bets than that.  

Match Odds and Both Teams to Score  

Home advantage and the fact Benfica are just about the better side right now may just balance things out and though a draw for Benfica would mean playing catch-up against Sporting, at least they know that in the penultimate match of the season they host Sporting and that a win there would just about hand them the title, leapfrogging their Lisbon rivals at (almost) the final hurdle.  

But then again it might not come to that because Sporting play Braga on Monday night, currently in third and on the same points as Porto, so it would be no surprise if a draw here was followed by another on the other side of the road the following evening. In other words, a draw for Benfica isn't as disastrous as it seems and it's certainly a far better result than a defeat.   

But rather than take the straight 11/5 on the draw, take the 16/5 that both teams score in the stalemate. No team has scored in more games than Benfica's 25 so they're pretty unlikely to draw a blank here. As for Porto, they've only failed to score once at home all season- a 0-1 defeat against Olympiakos back in January.  

If you want to try to be a little cuter, you could place 75% of your bet on 1-1 at 11/2 and 25% on 2-2 at 12/1 but the obvious problem with that is: what if it ends 3-3 or 4-4? Unlikely we know but we also can't be covering to many eventualities, so the simpler approach works just fine for us.  

Anytime Scorer  

My old favourite Vangelis Pavlidis – this very site's Editor also likes him but for reasons we'll discuss another day – has been something of a saviour for both Benfica and my own columns this season with goal after goal following a slow start to the campaign.  

He has 21 for the season but hasn't been quite prolific of late with just two in his last six, his goalscoring task made a bit harder by the fact the returning di Maria is now back on penalty duty, as we saw against Gil Vicente. So, it's with regret we leave alone the 2/1 he gets another.  

Instead, at a far bigger price, I'll chance Orkun Kokcu, who has a knack for scoring in the biggest games, having done so against Juventus, Atlético Madrid and Monaco. He has 11 for the season and has seriously improved in terms of making excellent runs into the box and also in his finishing. Just because he's not part of the front three doesn't mean he can't get into good positions and the smart money is on him having at least one good chance. At 5/1, let's hope he takes it.  

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Football Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Football hub page...