Porto vs Benfica Prediction: Farioli’s Dragons too good for Mourinho’s Eagles

It’s a glamour tie in the Portuguese Cup in midweek with Porto playing hosts to Benfica, with kick-off in northern Portugal set for 20:45.  

Our Portuguese-based correspondent Jamie Pacheco can’t see Benfica progressing here and has two selections at 9/5 and 7/4 that reflect that theory. You can check out all of his Porto vs Benfica Predictions below...

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Match Preview:

Porto  

Porto under Francesco Farioli can do no wrong at the moment. No wonder his name was mentioned as a possible replacement for both the Chelsea and Manchester United vacant positions.  

17 matches have yielded 16 wins, which is surely the most impressive record for any team in the whole of Europe.   

Perhaps the greatest secret to their success is their defence, which has conceded just four goals in 17 matches, incredible numbers. They haven't conceded a goal in any of their last three.  

Such a superb position in the league means they can also take this competition seriously.  A domestic double could well be on the cards for Farioli in his first season at Porto, and he may find it hard to resist summer approaches from huge clubs if that happens.  

But let's cross that bridge when we come to it. A match against Benfica is never going to be straightforward.  

Benfica 

Whether he admits it or not, José Mourinho knows his race is run in the league.  

Even if he were to miraculously recover the 10 points he trails Porto by, second-placed Sporting would still be in his way. In truth, a third-placed finish is the best he can hope for at this stage.   

Benfica are also out of the Portuguese League Cup, and despite mounting something of a comeback in the Champions League with two wins on the bounce, they still have it all to do if they're to make the Playoffs. 

So not a great start to Mourinho's second spell at the club, but he might think that winning this competition might just about save their season, so expect him to field a strong team here. But he'll have to do without Nicolas Otamendi, who is suspended, with Antonio Silva looking to prove his fitness so he can take his place. 

Porto vs Benfica Odds 

Porto are 6/5, which is 45.5%, Benfica are 21.10 (32%) and the draw is 2/1.  

It's hard to make a case for Benfica at those odds. 

They've only beaten one strong side all season- Napoli in the Champions League -  so the theory that Mourinho can engineer a way to get the better of the best teams isn't one that's proven true over the past few months.  

Porto are the better side in all regards at the moment: slightly better squad, far better results, superior manager as far as I'm concerned.  

The 6/5 is a reasonable price in that regard, but I can't see how or why this would be a high-scoring affair. Mourinho will want to keep things as tight as possible for as long as possible, whereas there's no reason why Porto will want to keep going for more if, as expected, they take the lead.  

So rather than the straight 6/5, we prefer taking the 9/5 that Porto win with under 3.5 goals in the match.  

Double Chance and BTTS  

A decent alternative to the bet above is to take either the Porto win or draw with 'no' on both teams to score at 6/4.  

That would include such possible scorelines as 1-0 or 2-0 but crucially, also includes the 0-0 draw, which is always possible when a Mourinho side is in action.  

But we prefer the selection above, so we'll just stick to that one.  

Jamie Pacheco Football P/L 2025/26 (Excludes 3-3-3 column):  

• Points Staked: 20.1  
• Points Returned: 19.88   
• Current P/L: -0.22     

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Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Football Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Football hub page...