Poland vs Sweden Prediction: Can Pajor land historic goal?

Sweden know that if they can beat Poland on Tuesday night at the Allmend Stadium in Lucerne (20:00 BST, BBC One), they will book their place in the knockout stages of the European Championship. Having edged past Denmark with a 1-0 win in their opener, they know that another three points will guarantee them a spot in the quarter-finals. 

Below you can find my Poland vs Sweden predictions featuring team news and betting tips. 

Team News

Poland centre-back Paulina Dudek had to come off at half-time during the 2-0 defeat to Germany, and the PSG defender faces a late assessment to decide if she will be fit enough for this clash. If she isn’t, Basel’s Oliwia Wos is the likely candidate to partner Emilia Szymczak at the back, while West Ham’s Kinga Szemik will keep her place in goal.

At the top end of the pitch, Barcelona star Ewa Pajor will hope to score her country’s first-ever goal at a major tournament, while Paulina Tomasiak and Sevilla’s Natalia Padilla can offer support. 

Peter Gerhardsson should name the same XI that beat Denmark in that opener, with a clean bill of health aside from Fridolina Rolfo - who has been out for a month heading into this tournament. 

Hanna Lundkvist, Nathalie Bjorn, Linda Sembrant and Jonna Andersson should line up in front of goalkeeper Jennifer Falk. Stina Blackstenius is the star of this side and the Arsenal striker will lead the line once again, while Kosovare Asllani will captain the side from the number 10 position. Real Madrid’s Filippa Angeldal scored the winner in that opening game from central midfield and will play a key role at the heart of this team. 

Poland vs Sweden Odds

Poland are priced at 11/1 to win this game, with Sweden available at 1/4. That gives the favourites an implied win probability of 80%, while a draw can be backed at 5/1. 

This game could feature plenty of goals, and over 2.5 has been priced at 4/7, BTTS is 11/10 and Blackstenius is the favourite to score first at 7/2. Betfred also have a range of Price Boosts and Bet Builders for this game that you can find on the link above. 

Sweden to win and BTTS @ 15/8

I think it’s quite clear looking at the odds that Sweden are the stronger side heading into this game and I do believe that they will get the job done - but there’s not much value in just backing them, and even the handicap doesn’t do much to increase our odds. 

The Swedes created an xG of 2.21 against Denmark and were unfortunate to only win that game by one goal, given their statistical dominance. Let’s not forget, the worst Sweden have ever performed at a Euros is a quarter-final exit, and they reached the semis before losing to England in 2022. They’ve got serious pedigree and their squad should prove to be too strong for Poland, but I would like to back the underdogs to find the net in defeat. 

Poland have been excellent in front of goal in the run-up to this tournament, scoring four against Ukraine, three v Romania, four against Northern Ireland and five past Bosnia-Herzegovina. They even created an xG of 1.03 against a Germany side that is stronger than Sweden are on paper, so I think they could score their first goal at a major tournament in this one. 

Price Boost - Ewa Pajor to score anytime @ 4/1

If we are backing Poland to score, it makes sense to take advantage of the Price Boost on offer from Betfred, and back their talisman Pajor to find the net. She has consistently proven herself to be one of the finest strikers on the planet, and this season for club and country has managed 47 goals in 62 appearances in total. 

That’s an astonishing record, and there are several comparisons with her countryman Robert Lewandowski, who also leads the line for Barcelona. Pajor scored 25 goals in 28 league matches this term, bagging seven in 11 in the Champions League and is also her nation’s top scorer. 

The 28-year-old has scored 68 in 102 international appearances, and will be desperate to find the net at this tournament. This is a big price for it to happen that I think is worth considering. 

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