The qualification campaign for Euro 2024 continues this week as Poland host Faroe Islands on Thursday night at 7.45pm.

Team news:

Captain Robert Lewandowski, Wojciech Szczesny, Matty Cash and Jakub Kiwior all feature in this strong looking Poland squad that has bags of experience. Grzegorz Krychowiak, Kamil Grosicki and Piotr Zielinkski, as well as Lewandowski, all boast over 80 caps for their country. 

Most of Faroe Islands’ squad is relatively unknown and play their football domestically, with Stefan Radosavljevic the anomaly, as he turns out for Sligo Rovers in Ireland. 

Poland to score over 2.5 goals

Poland, despite their quality, are actually in a bit of a sticky situation in this qualification group. They were beaten by Moldova in a  3-2 thriller last time out, and have also lost to Czech Republic, leaving them on just three points from three matches. The 1-0 win over Albania was important, and they have to get three points here. 

With more quality in their squad than the Faroe Islands could ever dream of, all signs point to a handsome home win. However, given the home side are just 1/8 to win the match, we’ve looked elsewhere for value. 

The Faroe Islands have conceded three goals in each of their last two qualification matches, at home to both Czech Republic and Albania. Now they face a tough away test and with Lewandowski in good form, they could concede a hatful here. We’ve drawn the line at over 2.5 goals, given Poland aren’t completely firing, and that’s a margin they should be able to achieve. 

Poland -1 half-time handicap 

One way to find even better value is to look at the half-time handicap market. If we are expecting Poland to win this game comfortably, and score over 2.5 goals in the process, we can find value by picking them to be leading by two clear goals at half-time. 

Given they will want to come out of the blocks flying to alleviate the danger of any possible nerves creeping in, the 15/8 on offer for them in the -1 handicap half-time market looks promising. With Lewandowski and co, they should have no trouble scoring goals, and if they open the scoring early, they should have no trouble bagging two before the break.