Poland vs Denmark Prediction: No hope of progressing for either

Poland and Denmark will both be heading home from the European Championship after their final group meeting at Allmend Stadion (20:00 BST, ITV4). They’ve failed to amass a point between them which hardly makes their final group fixture one to look forward to, but let’s try and find some value anyway. 

Poland were hammered 3-0 by Sweden last time out, while Denmark narrowly lost 2-1 to Germany to confirm their exit. Below you can find my Poland vs Denmark predictions as we hunt for some value. 

Team News

Poland are still searching for their first goal at a major tournament, with Barcelona’s Ewa Pajor struggling to make an impact on the Euros yet. She will lead the line again as they hunt for this historic moment, with Natalia Padilla also likely to come back into the attack on the left wing. 

West Ham’s Kinga Szemik should continue in goal but minutes could be handed to the likes of Paulina Dudek of PSG at centre-back, and Milena Kokosz in midfield. It’s quite hard to predict the team news for this one given there is nothing riding on it, but you have to feel both teams will go all out for the win. 

Denmark only narrowly lost to Germany and I’d expect the majority of that team to play again, led by Pernille Harder. Juventus’ Amalie Vangsgaard found the net and will hope for another goal while I’d expect Jonna Andersson to replace Tottenham’s Amanda Nildén at left-back.

Experienced midfielder Sanne Troelsgaard will hope for more minutes in midfield, alongside Everton’s Karen Holmgaard.

Poland vs Denmark Odds

Poland are priced at 9/2 to win this game, while Denmark are the clear favourites at 8/15. That gives them an implied win probability of 65% for this fixture with a draw up at 7/2 for this dead rubber. 

We can back over 2.5 goals at 4/7, BTTS at 8/11 and Harder is the favourite to score first at 7/2.

Under 2.5 goals @ 11/8 

A dead rubber - so let’s back it to be a pretty boring affair at a big price. Poland conceded three to Sweden last time out but will want to do themselves justice here, although they haven’t looked very strong going forward to be truthful. They are yet to score, and created an xG of just 0.23 against the Swedes, and 1.03 v Germany. 

Meanwhile, Denmark have also not set the world alight, creating an xG of 0.34 and 0.44 so far. They’ve managed to find the net, but they came from an unlikely effort from Vangsgaard. I don’t think either of these will be all that bothered by the result, and with changes expected, I can see a fairly drab affair unfolding in Luzern.

Poland 0-1 Denmark @ 7/1

Decent odds are on offer for a narrow Danish win, given they are the stronger side on paper and there shouldn’t be too many goals on display. Denmark are ranked 12th in the world by Fifa, while Poland are down in 27th, hence the huge difference in the odds for two teams without points on the board. 

Denmark did reasonably well in the Nations League this year while Poland went unbeaten in their Nations League campaign but were playing against far weaker opposition. I’m gonna back Denmark to edge this one on a hunch, with small stakes recommended on this selection. 

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