Poland vs Croatia Prediction: Kramaric to crown 100th cap with capital strike

Croatia can guarantee a top-three finish in Uefa Nations League Group A1 with a victory over Poland in Warsaw on Tuesday (19:45). The Croats are currently second, three points ahead of Poland, whom they beat 1-0 in Osijek last month.

Read below for my Poland vs Croatia prediction, complete with all the latest team news, ahead of this crunch clash at the PGE Narodowy.

Team News

Poland and Arsenal defender Jakub Kiwior started Saturday's 3-1 defeat to Portugal on the bench but was brought on for Sebastian Walukiewicz at the start of the second half and will expect to start on Tuesday.

Jakub Moder, Kacper Urbanski, Michael Ameyaw and Krzysztof Piatek were added to the fray later in the game and are all in with a shout of making the lineup for the visit of Croatia; Moder and Piatek are perhaps the most likely to begin the match out of the quartet.

Captain Robert Lewandowski will spearhead the Poland attack again as he bids to add to his 84-goal international tally.

Football Odds

Croatia made it back-to-back wins in Group A1 on Saturday night, coming from behind to beat Scotland 2-1 in Zagreb. Igor Matanovic scored his first international goal to equalise for Vatreni, and the 21-year-old Eintracht Frankfurt forward is in line to make a third successive start for his country on Tuesday.

Petar Susic was brought on for Mario Pasalic at the beginning of the second half against the Tartan Army and the Dinamo Zagreb midfielder has a chance of making the lineup for the trip to the Polish capital. However, it seems likelier that Mateo Kovacic, who missed the weekend win to witness the birth of his child, is selected by head coach Zlatko Dalic.

National team stalwarts Dominik Livakovic, Josko Gvardiol, Ivan Perisic, Luka Modric and Andrej Kramaric are all expected to get the nod again, the latter having struck Croatia's crucial second goal on the weekend.

Poland vs Croatia Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Poland vs Croatia page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Poland haven't beaten Croatia since June 2006 and are 12/5 to end that run on Tuesday, giving the hosts an implied win probability of 29.4%. The visitors, meanwhile, are 6/5 (45.5%) to secure a third-straight victory over Bialo-Czerwoni, with a draw available at 23/10.

Both teams to score is priced at 4/5 and over 2.5 total goals at 1/1.

Lewandowski (8/5) is favourite to score anytime followed by Croatia forwards Ante Budimir (15/8), Kramaric (2/1) and Matanovic (21/10).

Both Teams to Score - Yes @ 4/5

Both teams to score has never landed in the four previous head-to-heads between these sides with the first ending in a goalless draw in February 2003 and being followed by a hat-trick of 1-0 wins - the first in favour of Poland and the second and third for Croatia.

However, last month's victory for Croatia is the only meeting played in the last 16 years, so I'm not attaching too much relevance to past encounters.

Instead, I'm looking at the recent records of both, which point towards a BTTS - Yes winner on Tuesday.

Both teams have scored in five of Croatia's last seven games while the same bet has landed in eight of Poland's last 10.

There were three goals struck in Zagreb on Saturday as Croatia came from behind to edge past Scotland, and only an intervention from the VAR denied the Tartan Army an equaliser deep into second-half stoppage time. Dalic's team has some impressive young defenders, notably Gvardiol and Josip Sutalo, but they are far from a rock-solid side of late, keeping just a single clean sheet in their last seven matches and conceding nine times.

Poland, meanwhile, have managed just one shutout in their previous 10 outings and just four in their last 17 - two of which came against the Faroe Islands. They can no longer count on the wondrous shot-stopping abilities of Wojciech Szczesny either, following the legendary goalkeeper's retirement earlier this year - albeit he has since abandoned that decision to help out Barcelona.

So, we have two fairly desperate defences that are tasked with denying some sharpshooters in attack. Croatia, arguably, are most blessed across their forward line with attackers Kramaric and Matanovic supported by the likes of Modric, Pasalic and Gvardiol, who can call chip in with a goal.

However, it's Poland who boast the most potent striker in Barcelona's Lewandowski, who leads the La Liga scoring charts this season with 10 strikes in his first nine games. The 36-year-old's international record is not to be sniffed at either with 84 goals in 155 appearances, although he's yet to net from open play this calendar year for his country.

Lewandowski will be desperate to prove he's no penalty-spot merchant at national team level and that could prove dangerous for a Croatian side that hasn't kept a clean sheet on their travels since beating Latvia 2-0 in Riga last November.

At just under EVS, BTTS - Yes looks worth taking on in this UNL clash.

Anytime Goalscorer - Andrej Kramaric (CRO) @ 2/1

In my opinion, Hoffenheim forward Kramaric is one of the most underrated forwards in Europe over the last decade. A big-money move to Leicester City in 2015 failed to pay off from a personal standpoint as he scored just twice in 15 Premier League appearances and failed to meet the threshold to collect a winner's medal at the end of the 2015/16 campaign.

However, since joining German side Hoffenheim the Croatian has flourished, netting 119 times in 258 Bundesliga games. He's already on four in five this term and struck his third international goal of the calendar year - and 30th of his national team career - on Saturday in the victory over Scotland.

Tuesday's match is a landmark one for the 33-year-old as he collects his 100th international cap and there would be no way better to celebrate that achievement than firing one past the Poles in Warsaw.

Certainly, if I'm going to back one Croatia player to find the back of the net, it has to be Kramaric, who has shown himself to be a consistent finisher at both domestic and international level.

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