Poland vs Netherlands Prediction: The Dutch can run riot in Hamburg

 | Saturday 15th June 2024, 8:05am

Saturday 15th June 2024, 8:05am

Poland vs Netherlands

Poland and the Netherlands clash in their Euro 2024 Group D opener on Sunday afternoon (14:00, BBC One) at the Volksparkstadion in Hamburg. It is a tough group that features France and Austria, so the competition is going to be fierce. 

Both teams will look to get off to a strong start here, but both have suffered injury blows in the build-up to this opening fixture. Read on for my Poland vs Netherlands prediction, accompanied by match odds and team news.

Poland vs Netherlands Betting Tips

  • Netherlands -2 handicap @ 9/2
  • Virgil van Dijk anytime goalscorer @ 6/1
  • Netherlands to win 3-0 @ 10/1

Poland vs Netherlands Odds

Poland are 5/1 to win here, giving them a 16.7% chance of victory. The Netherlands are the favourites at 4/7, which gives them an implied probability of 63.3%. The draw is available at 3/1 (25%).

Both teams to score is priced at 1/1 and over 2.5 goals is on offer at 10/11.

Netherlands striker Memphis Depay is just five goals away from surpassing Robin van Persie as De Oranje's all-time top goalscorer. He is valued at 8/5 to score anytime here.

Team News

Dutch boss Ronald Koeman has suffered a double injury blow before the tournament, as midfielders Frenkie de Jong and Teun Koopmeiners have had to leave the camp due to injury. Ian Maatsen was called up as a replacement but De Oranje are going to be missing two talented players this summer.

So it looks like Ryan Gravenberch, Georginio Wijnaldum and Jerdy Schouten will be the Netherlands' most prominent midfield at the Euros.

There are several combinations that could make up the attack but Depay is likely to be a fixed name on the team sheet. The likes of Cody Gakpo, Xavi Simons and Jeremie Frimpong will all be fighting for places at the front.

In defence, Virgil van Dijk is a mainstay at centre-half, and he could be partnered by either Stefan de Vrij or Micky van de Ven. Nathan Ake is most likely to feature on the left of the back line, whether in a three or a four.

Poland are going to be without their superstar striker Robert Lewandowski for at least this match, which comes as a huge blow to boss Michal Probierz.

Netherlands -2 handicap @ 9/2

I think Poland are going to struggle against the Netherlands on Sunday and it would still be difficult even if Lewandowski was fit to play. The Netherlands have posted back-to-back 4-0 wins over Canada and Iceland in their warm-up matches and they will be raring to go against Poland so that they get their Euros campaign off to a strong start.

Poland are deemed the weakest team in Group D and it is going to be a huge task for them to progress to the knockout stage. I think there is value to be had in backing the Netherlands to win with a -2 handicap because of their recent scoring performances, as it shows that they have players all over the pitch who can chip in to deliver the goods.

Netherlands -2 handicap at 9/2 Virgil van Dijk anytime goalscorer @ 6/1

One of them is Van Dijk. The defender scored in both of those 4-0 wins for the Netherlands and there is no doubting the aerial threat he will have from set-pieces at this tournament.

Poland's defence is going to have a tough time with the Netherlands' attackers from open play but it will be equally as difficult when they are tasked with defending corners and free-kicks.

Van Dijk heads into the tournament on a rare scoring streak but I think this could bode well for him in his side's opening fixture. The likes of Jan Bednarek and Jakub Kiwior are going to have their work cut out for them to snuff out the Dutchman's threat from set-pieces, but I have a strong feeling that the Liverpool man will net his third goal in as many matches.

Virgil van Dijk anytime goalscorer at 6/1 Netherlands to win 3-0 @ 10/1

I think this should be a comfortable win for Koeman's men and I can envisage them delivering a 3-0 scoreline. Depay, Gakpo, Simons, Frimpong, Wijnaldum and more can all find the back of the net, but I do see one of the goals coming from their towering defender Van Dijk.

Poland are going to struggle without their only world-class player, and they are facing a Dutch side who have posted back-to-back clean sheets and that are scoring goals for fun at the moment.

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Betfred are running their famed Double Delight & Hat-trick Heaven offer on this match, meaning that if a player scores first and then nets again, you will be paid at double the odds. If he grabs a hat-trick, you will be paid at treble the odds!

You can read all our latest Euro 2024 Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.


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