Plymouth vs Luton Prediction: Hatters to end September in style

After a rollercoaster season in the Premier League, life back in the EFL Championship started slowly for Luton Town, who failed to win any of their first four games. But Rob Edwards' side returned from the international break in fine fettle, beating both Millwall and Sheffield Wednesday, and are now targeting a third straight victory on Friday night (20:00, Sky Sports Main Event) at Home Park, where they face lowly Plymouth Argyle.

Read below for my Plymouth vs Luton prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this seventh-round fixture in Devon.

Team News

Plymouth head coach Wayne Rooney remains without injured goalkeeper Conor Hazard, who last featured in the 1-0 home defeat to Stoke City on August 31, meaning Daniel Grimshaw is set to deputise for a third game in a row.

Rooney said in Wednesday's press conference that summer signing Rami Al Hajj, who made back-to-back substitute appearances in the 3-2 victory over Sunderland and 1-0 defeat at West Bromwich Albion last Saturday, is available to start on Friday, hinting that at least one change could be in the offing.

Michael Obafemi, Callum Wright and Mustapha Bundu will also hope to be in their manager's starting XI thoughts for this week's game.

Football Odds

Luton boss Edwards has had numerous injuries to contend with this season, particularly in defence, where Daiki Dashioka has yet to feature.

However, Teden Mengi, Mark McGuinness and Reece Burke have all lined up in central defence together for the past two matches and that appears to be a backline Edwards has settled on for the time being.

The Hatters did beat Sheffield Wednesday 2-1 at Kenilworth Road last Saturday but they were 1-0 down until the 77th minute when a penalty from substitute Carlton Morris, three minutes after Owls defender Di'Shon Bernard had been sent off, drew them level, and Luton's number nine scored his second 11 minutes later to win the game for the hosts.

Morris, Tom Krauss and Zack Nelson were all brought on at the hour mark of that match and will have given Edwards something to think about ahead of Friday's trip to Plymouth.

Certainly, Morris will expect to be reinstated to the starting XI, while Victor Moses is looking to make his full debut after earning his first minutes as a Luton player last weekend.

Plymouth vs Luton Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Plymouth vs Luton page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Plymouth have only won once in the Championship under Rooney - a 3-2 win against Sunderland in their last home game - and are 11/4 to triumph for a second time under the Manchester United and England legend, giving the Pilgrims an implied win probability of 26.7%. Luton, meanwhile, can be backed at 9/10 (52.6%), and a draw at 11/4.

Both teams to score is priced at 4/7 and over 2.5 total goals at 8/13, while Luton striker Elijah Adebayo (5/4) leads the anytime goal scorer market, followed by teammates Morris and Joe Taylor (both 7/4). Morgan Whittaker (23/10) is considered Plymouth's most likely goal scorer.

Match Result & Both Teams to Score - Luton & Yes @ 23/10

It's fair to say that, after all the hype thrown their way, with many - including myself - tipping Luton as automatic promotion contenders, the start the Hatters made to the 2024/25 campaign was disappointing. A 4-1 thrashing at home by Burnley on the opening night was followed by a goalless draw at Portsmouth, and after losing 1-0 at Preston, the pressure really ramped up ahead of their fourth match, which they lost 2-1 to Queens Park Rangers at Kenilworth Road - after leading at half-time.

However, Edwards' side managed to grind out a 1-0 win against Millwall at The Den a couple of weeks ago and built on that success by beating Sheffield Wednesday last time out. Suddenly, things look a lot rosier for Luton, who could move to within a point of sixth-placed Leeds United by beating Plymouth on Friday, albeit the Whites will play their game in hand the following day.

Plymouth, meanwhile, shocked Sunderland in their last match at Home Park, coming from a goal down to go 2-1 up, and even after a potentially killer blow in the 86th minute when the Black Cats equalised, the Pilgrims roused themselves for a barnstorming finish, winning through a goal from Joe Edwards in the third minute of added time.

Rooney's side have shown a great determination to bounce back from their 4-0 thrashing at Sheffield Wednesday on the opening weekend of the season, drawing back-to-back games 1-1 with Hull City and QPR before losing 1-0 to Stoke City and West Brom either side of their victory over Sunderland.

The facts remain, though, that Plymouth have won just once in the league under Rooney, and that win was only achieved in the dying minutes. They've also blanked in four of their six Championship matches, including two of their last three.

Up against a resurgent Luton side on Friday, Rooney's charges could find things tough.

Morris scored his first goals of the campaign last weekend and the 28-year-old, who struck 11 times in the Premier League last season, should be feeling full of himself now. If he and strike partner Adebayo, who is yet to get off the mark this term after netting 10 league goals in 2023/24, can really get going, the sky is the limit for the Hatters.

Plymouth are yet to keep a clean sheet in this season's Championship, which should certainly give the strike duo confidence heading into Friday's contest.

I do think the Pilgrims can get on the scoresheet themselves, with Luton only keeping two clean sheets across seven games in all competitions, but the firepower in the visitors' attack should be too much for the hosts, who could very well end the weekend in the relegation zone.

Player to Receive a Card - Elijah Adebayo (LUT) @ 18/5

Given the fact he was booked just once in 27 Premier League appearances last season and is yet to be cautioned in seven games (all starts) this term, it's no surprise to see Adebayo feature so lowly in the player card market.

However, there is a method to the madness that is my selection above.

Adebayo has committed 13 fouls in this season's Championship, averaging 2.2 fouls per game, with only Millwall's George Saville (15), Portsmouth's Marlon Pack and Sunderland's Romain Mundle (both 14) making more, and the trio have all been scribbled into the referee's notebook - twice in the case of Saville and Pack.

In fact, of the 12 players to commit 12 or more fouls in the Championship, only Adebayo and Burnley duo Josh Brownhill and Luca Koleosho are yet to be booked, so it's surely only a matter of time until the 26-year-old, who is averaging 2.2 fouls per game, is shown a yellow.

Adebayo is a physical striker who thrives off aerial duels, and in Luton's 2022/23 promotion-winning campaign, he was cautioned nine times. His chances of seeing yellow are also increased - in my opinion - by his struggles in front of goal which, if continued, could see his frustration mount.

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