Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory Prediction: Taggart can help hosts to a positive result in Perth

By this season's standards, January was a positive month for Perth Glory as they picked up four points - just one fewer than they managed in the first three months combined. By contrast, January was the poorest one yet for Melbourne Victory, the Glory's opponents at HBF Park on Saturday (10:45, TNT Sports 4), as they claimed just five points from 15 available, although their only win of the month did come last time out as they beat Sydney 2-0 last Friday.

Victory coasted to a 2-0 success in December's reverse fixture at AAMI Park and with 13 points separating the 12th-placed hosts and their visitors (sixth) ahead of the weekend, another routine win is expected for MVC. Read below for my Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory prediction to see whether I'm siding with the statistics or going against the grain by backing the underdogs.

Team News

January recruits Pat Wood, Yuto Misao and Tass Mourdoukoutas all made their Perth Glory debuts in last weekend's 2-2 draw at Newcastle Jets and are in David Zdrilic's extended squad for this Saturday's match. Mourdoukoutas and Wood are set to make back-to-back starts while Misao is likely to come off the bench again.

Central defender Andriano Lebib is set to miss at least another two games due to a knee injury, however. “He’s had an issue with his knee and he’s been managing it,” Zdrilic said.

“We’ve had an MRI on his knee and he’s been playing with an injury there that’s been being managed. But it’s a week-to-week thing and last week he just wasn’t able to do it.

“He won’t be included this week either."

David Williams (knee), Nikola Mileusnic, Lachie Barr, Nicholas Pennington and Andriano Lebib (all unspecified) are also still in the Glory treatment room and unavailable for selection.

Football Odds

Arthur Diles, named Melbourne Victory's new head coach this week following seven games as interim boss, has a fully-fit squad to choose from ahead of this weekend's trip to Perth.

Jing Reec and Luka Kolic, both named in Victory's extended squad, will be hoping to make it onto the bench on matchday.

Diles could name an unchanged starting XI after picking up his first win in charge against Sydney (2-0) last weekend, meaning Bruno Fornaroli, who scored Victory's second against the Sky Blues, will have to settle for a substitute role again.

Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory Odds

Perth Glory have suffered four straight defeats to Melbourne Victory since last taking points off them in a goalless draw at AAMI Park in April 2023 and are 11/2 to triumph for just a third time this season on Saturday. The hosts are given an implied win probability of 15.4% while the visitors are 4/11, or a 73.3% chance, to record back-to-back wins under Diles for the first time.

The Glory are yet to draw at home in 2024/25 but you can back that wait for a stalemate to end this weekend at 18/5 while both teams to score, which was a winner in both league meetings last season, is priced at 4/7.

Fornaroli, who was runner-up in the top scorer charts last season with 18 goals, is the favourite in the anytime goalscorer market at 5/6, with the 2023/24 Golden Boot winner Adam Taggart first up for the hosts at 7/4.

Double Chance - Perth Glory or Draw @ 9/5

Diles secured his first win as Victory boss at the seventh attempt last Saturday and he now goes in search of his first as Patrick Kisnorbo's permanent successor.

The cynics among the Victory faithful were quick to question the timing of the club's announcement this week, believing that they were waiting until he got a first win under his belt before officially unveiling him as their new head coach.

Certainly, prior to last Saturday, Victory were showing few signs of progress, and in fact, looked like they had regressed since Kisnorbo's mid-December departure.

Perhaps that's to be expected given Kisnorbo's sudden exit, but three losses and three draws from six games, after winning five of their first seven league games, was concerning.

Victory outclassed Sydney in last weekend's Big Blue but it should be noted that the Sky Blues were just coming off the back of a 4-3 home loss to ALM stragglers Brisbane Roar, whose only win of the season remains that success at Allianz Stadium.

So, it may be too soon to start believing Victory are 'back' and ready to challenge for a top-two spot. They currently trail second-place Adelaide United by six points and could even end the weekend outside the top six.

Perth Glory, meanwhile, appear to have some belief back in their ranks after beating ALM leaders Auckland (1-0) and drawing with the Jets (2-2) either side of a narrow defeat to Western Sydney Wanderers (1-2). They're not exactly pulling up trees, but it's a step in the right direction after an abysmal start to the season.

At home, where both defeats this calendar year have been narrow - in the first against Western United (2-3), they were leading until second-half stoppage time - and where Auckland suffered just their second loss of the campaign, the Glory may just upset the odds and take something from Saturday's game.

At 9/5, I think they are great value to avoid defeat against an uncertain Victory side.

Anytime Goalscorer - Adam Taggart (PGL) @ 7/4

The ALM's reigning Golden Boot winner started the season off poorly, just like his team, netting just twice in his first nine appearances, although he can point to a lack of service for that meagre goal return.

Like Perth, though, he has picked up since the turn of the year, scoring three goals in five appearances, including in back-to-back games against the Wanderers and the Jets.

The 31-year-old has scored six times against Victory in 17 career appearances, the latest of which came in last season's corresponding fixture, and he will back himself to net in a third straight match on Saturday.

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