Perth Glory vs Melbourne City Prediction: Ugarkovic on for another card here

The final Australia A-League Men's match of the weekend comes from HBF Park on Sunday (09:45, TNT Sports 2) as Perth Glory host Melbourne City. The Glory are yet to win a league game this season but did beat their next opponents (5-4 aet) in the Australia Cup in August.

Below is my Perth Glory vs Melbourne City prediction, complete with all the latest team news.

Team News

Mustafa Amini and Josh Risdon remain sidelined for Perth Glory but head coach David Zdrilic is boosted by the returns to fitness of Nicola Mileusnic and Cristian Caicedo, the latter looking to make his debut following his move from Colombia in the off-season.

Both Mileusnic and Caicedo may have to settle for a place on the substitutes bench, however, given how well the Glory bounced back from back-to-back defeats to Macarthur (1-6) and Wellington Phoenix (0-2) to grind out a goalless draw at the home of reigning Premiership champions Central Coast Mariners.

Last season's A-League Men's Golden Boot winner, Adam Taggart, will lead the line again.

Football Odds

Melbourne City suffered a devastating blow this week with the news that Andrew Nabbout has been ruled out for the remainder of the 2024/25 season with a ruptured ACL in his right knee. The injury was sustained in Monday's 1-0 win at Western United, with the 31-year-old substituted five minutes after scoring what proved to be the winner in the 49th minute.

Marco Tilio was substituted even earlier in that match, leaving the pitch in tears during the first half, and the Celtic loanee has since been ruled out for the rest of the calendar year.

Nabbout and Tilio join an overcrowded treatment room already housing Max Caputo, Arion Sulemani, Alessandro Lopane, Jayden Necovski, Harry Shillington and Emin Durakovic, while captain and left-back Aziz Behich continues to serve a ban for misconduct in last month's Melbourne derby.

James Jeggo is back from suspension, however.

Perth Glory vs Melbourne City Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Perth Glory vs Melbourne City page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Perth Glory are 2/1, or a 50% chance, to claim a first victory of the A-League Men's campaign on Sunday, while Melbourne City are 11/10 to triumph for the third time this term, giving the visitors an implied win probability of 47.6%.

The draw is priced at 12/5, both teams to score at 1/2, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/7.

Taggart (7/5) heads the anytime goalscorer market, followed by City striker Yonatan Cohen (7/4), who is yet to get off the mark for his new club since moving from Maccabi Tel Aviv in September.

Draw No Bet - Perth Glory @ 5/4

Backing Perth Glory to beat Melbourne City would've seemed nonsensical just a matter of weeks ago as the former suffered a 6-1 hammering at Macarthur in the season's opening round.

Even at this stage, in mid-November, the Glory are yet to win a game, losing to Wellington Phoenix and drawing with Central Coast Mariners.

Melbourne City, meanwhile have beaten both Newcastle Jets and Western United by a 1-0 scoreline, either side of a 3-1 Melbourne derby defeat to Melbourne Victory.

There were 17 points separating these sides last season as wooden spooners Glory finished six places behind City, who secured the sixth and final play-off spot ahead of Western Sydney Wanderers. City also beat this weekend's opponents twice - 2-1 at HBF Park last December, and 8-0 at AAMI Park in April - although there was a 4-2 victory for the Glory in Perth in February.

PGFC also have a win to their name against City this season, albeit after extra-time in the Australia Cup in August, when the sides drew 4-4 over 90 minutes before Nathanael Blair struck a 115th-minute winner to knock out Aurelio Vidmar's charges.

This time last week, I still would've fancied City to win Sunday's contest; however, the double injury blow of Tilio and Nabbout on Monday has swung things dramatically, in my opinion.

Vidmar can still call upon the talents of Mathew Leckie, who made his return from injury against Western United, and centre-forward Cohen, who has endured a slow start to life in Australia but arrived with a decent reputation in Israel.

But, there's no doubt that both Tilio and Nabbout will be big misses in attack, and no City player outside those two has scored in the league this season (Tilio struck the winner against the Jets before Nabbout found the net back-to-back v Melbourne Victory and Western United).

The Glory showed their resolve away in Wellington last week and should be buoyed by the opportunity to take on an injury-ridden City side shorn of its best attackers.

You can back the hosts to win at 2/1 on Sunday, but I prefer to take the insurance option of Draw No Bet, meaning that if Zdrilic's side wins, you get paid out at reduced odds of 5/4, and if they only manage to take a point, then you get your stake back as cash.

Player to Receive a Card - Steven Ugarkovic (MBC) @ 9/2

This looks like a fairly big price considering Steven Ugarkovic is a player averaging 1.5 fouls per game in this season's A-League Men's and one who has been booked in two of Melbourne City's three matches.

It took just 51 minutes of the new season for the 30-year-old to be booked away to Newcastle Jets on October 19, and he didn't even make it to the half-time whistle in the Melbourne derby a week later as he was cautioned in the 39th minute against Victory.

He kept himself out of the referee's notebook at Western United on Monday but still made a foul.

Despite averaging 1.5 fouls per game, Ugarkovic only picked up three yellows across 27 A-League Men's appearances last season, the same number he received in the same number of games for Wellington Phoenix in the 2022/23 campaign.

However, on recent evidence, it seems that the Australian's discipline is on the wane, and it could be wise to back the Melbourne City man for a card while others are sleeping on him.

Offers

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down.

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.