Paraguay vs Uruguay Prediction: La Celeste’s struggles to continue

Paraguay won just once in their first seven 2026 World Cup qualifiers, and appeared destined to finish outside the top six, which guarantees a place at next year's tournament in the USA. However, they've won four of their last seven, drawing the other three, to surge up to fifth ahead of their next fixture on Friday (00:00 BST) against Uruguay, who are third but are trending in the opposite direction, having won just one of their last eight qualifiers.

Below are my Paraguay vs Uruguay predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this game at the Estadio Defensores del Chaco in Asuncion.

Team News

Alex Arce (LDU Quito) and Saul Salcedo (Newell's Old Boys) are the only two players to miss out from the last Paraguay squad in March.

Seasoned campaigners Junior Alonso (Atletico Mineiro), Fabian Balbuena (Dynamo Moscow) and Miguel Almiron (Atlanta United) are all expected to start on Friday, as is Julio Enciso (Brighton), who has scored in two of La Albirroja's last three games.

Football Odds

Angelo Romero (Corinthians), Isidro Pitta (Bragantino), Antonio Sanabria (Torino) and Ramon Sosa (Nottingham Forest) will also hope for minutes in Asuncion, where Gremio midfielder Mathias Villasanti could earn his 50th cap.

Uruguay captain Federico Valverde will miss out on this month's qualifiers as he battles with a back injury that Real Madrid will hope doesn't keep him out of this summer's Fifa Club World Cup, which kicks off on June 15.

Another national team star, Liverpool striker Darwin Nunez, is suspended after the Court of Arbitration for Sport rejected the Uruguayan Football Association's appeal against the penalty imposed on him following an altercation with rival fans at the 2024 Copa America.

However, La Celeste head coach Marcelo Bielsa can count on the experience of Barcelona's Ronald Araujo, Atletico Madrid's Jose Maria Gimenez, Tottenham Hotspur's Rodrigo Bentancur and Manchester United's Manuel Ugarte, among others.

Paraguay vs Uruguay Odds

Paraguay haven't lost at home since November 2023, and Gustavo Alfaro's side are 6/4 favourites to claim all three points against Uruguay on Friday, implying a 40% probability of success. The visitors, meanwhile, are 2/1, or a 33.3% chance, to win their first away qualifier since November 2023.

The two teams played out a goalless draw in Montevideo last September, and you can back another stalemate in the reverse fixture at 7/4, while another 0-0 scoreline is priced at 9/2.

To Win to Nil - Paraguay @ 5/2

Paraguay and Uruguay are one of three nations, along with Brazil, level on 21 points in the South American standings, but their respective form couldn't be any different.

Friday's hosts are unbeaten in their last eight games, winning four and drawing the other half, and they boast the third-best home record in qualifying, having collected 16 points from seven matches (W5, D1, L1) in Asuncion. Los Guaranies have won their last four qualifiers at home, beating Brazil and Chile 1-0 either side of 2-1 victories over Venezuela and Argentina.

Uruguay, on the other hand, have been shocking post-Copa America, winning just one, drawing five, and losing two of their eight World Cup qualifiers. They haven't won any of their last three, drawing away to Brazil (1-1) and Bolivia (0-0) either side of a 1-0 home defeat to Argentina.

In truth, La Celeste's away record has been poor all campaign, as they've picked up just seven points from as many games, winning just once on their travels. They've failed to score on two occasions, in goalless draws with Venezuela and Bolivia, and have blanked in six of their last eight qualifiers - home and away.

Without Valverde and Nunez, who have scored two and five goals, respectively, in this qualification campaign, combining for 41.2% of Uruguay's total (17), the visitors' chances of finding the net in the Paraguayan capital drop significantly.

As a result, backing Paraguay to win to nil, as they did in their last home game against Chile (1-0) on March 20, looks like the best bet here at 5/2.

Anytime Goalscorer - Omar Alderete (PAR) @ 18/1

Sanabria (3/1) and Enciso (16/5) are standout candidates in this market for Paraguay, but if you want some proper value, Getafe defender Omar Alderete is right there at 18/1.

The 28-year-old isn't a prolific goalscorer at club level, netting just once in 34 La Liga appearances this season, the sort of record you'd expect from a centre-back at a side that finished just two points above the relegation zone.

However, he's been crucial for his country in the opposition's penalty box recently, scoring twice in his last three games.

Alderete headed a 47th-minute winner in a 2-1 victory over Argentina on November 14, and followed that effort up with a left-footed strike in a 1-0 success over Chile to make it back-to-back goals for Paraguay. In both wins, the 27-cap international recorded three shots, highlighting the danger that he possesses when attacking set-pieces.

The Asuncion-born defender is averaging 0.8 shots per game in qualifying, while his average for the 2024/25 La Liga season was 1.1 per game.

He looks a great price to net in a third successive qualifier.

Offers

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