Paraguay vs Chile Prediction: Home side can take big step to World Cup

There’s no question that the best qualifying tournament for the World Cup comes from South America. The quality of the teams is exceptionally high, as some of the best players in the world gather to attempt to take their nations to a World Cup. We head to South America again during this international break to try and pick out a few winners, starting with Paraguay vs Chile - which kicks off at 23:00 on Thursday night here in the UK. 

Below you can find my Paraguay vs Chile predictions as we hunt for a winner.

Team News

Paraguay are unfortunately going to be without their captain Gustavo Gomez for this break. He returned last time out for Palmeiras but only as a substitute, and he hasn’t been deemed fit enough by manager Gustavo Alfaro to partake in this squad. 

Only two players boast more than 50 caps, and Santiago Arzamendia is a shock omission from this squad which has a young feel to it. Fluminese’s Ruben Lezcano is an exciting addition who could make his debut, while all eyes will be on Ipswich Town’s Julio Enciso after he rescued a point against Bolivia last time out. 

Football Odds

Ricardo Gareca has named a more familiar squad for Chile having got a glimpse of some youngster in a friendly against Panama last month, but he is still without Norwich midfielder Marcelino Nunez through injury. Erick Pulgar and Williams Alarcon are also key absentees, and they join Fabian Hormazabal and Marcelo Morales on the sidelines. 

The usual suspects are still involved however, with Alexis Sanchez, Arturo Vidal, Eduardo Vargas and Charles Aranguiz all fit and raring to go. Young Colo-Colo attacker Lucas Cepeda has three goals in four appearances for his country and will hope to strike again here. 

Paraguay vs Chile Odds 

Paraguay are priced at 8/11 to win this game having won four of their 12 fixtures in qualifying so far, putting them sixth in the table. That is the final automatic qualifying spot for the expanded 2026 World Cup, while Chile currently sit in ninth and are priced at 18/5 to win this one. A draw can be backed at 11/5, while over 2.5 goals is 6/4.

BTTS is 5/4 but it has come in during Paraguay’s last three fixtures, and Isidro Pitta is the favourite to open the scoring at 9/2.

Over 2.5 goals @ 6/4

Now this is a big price for over 2.5 goals and I can see why fans are slightly fearful of Paraguay when it comes to goals. Across 2023 and a lot of 2024, their scorelines read like binary code and even in September and October last year they had two 0-0s and a 1-0 win over Brazil. 

However, I think they’ve turned a corner since then and they aren’t as defensive and boring to watch as they once were. Following that 0-0 with Bolovia, they were involved in three thrilling matches back-to-back and I’m keen to take advantage of recent form rather than focus on their goalscoring issues of the past. 

They beat both Venezuela and Argentina 2-1 at home before a bonkers 2-2 draw with Bolivia that saw a penalty, two red cards and that injury-time equaliser from Enciso. Miguel Almiron, along with Enciso and one of several strikers should be able to find the cutting edge against Chile, who beat Venezuela 4-2 in their last qualifier and stuck six past Panama. Goals are on the cards for me at a big price. 

Paraguay to win @ 8/11

A fairly simple one for me. Chile simply aren’t the same team as they were a decade ago, when they won back-to-back Copa America titles yet a few players from that squad still remain. They are past their best and they don’t seem to have a crop of exciting young stars coming through, which explains why they have picked up just nine points during this qualifying campaign. 

Meanwhile Paraguay are in a good position to qualify, and it is their home form that has dragged them up the table. I’ve already mentioned key home wins against table-toppers Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela and they’ve recovered well from a really poor showing at last year’s Copa America. A win here would put a nice big gap in between themselves and Bolivia in seventh, and they should get it. 

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