Paraguay vs Argentina Prediction: Three in a row for Alonso

A four-game unbeaten run across September and October has put Paraguay back in the mix to qualify for the 2026 Fifa World Cup, with La Albirroja in sixth heading into round 11 this week. Their visitors to the Estadio Defensorers del Chaco on Thursday (23:30), Argentina, have stumbled slightly in recent months, losing 2-1 to Colombia and drawing 1-1 with Venezuela, although a 6-0 hammering of Bolivia last time out put them three points clear at the top and well on course for the showpiece tournament in less than two years.

Below is my Paraguay vs Argentina prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this 2026 Fifa World Cup qualifier in Asuncion.

Team News

Paraguay's squad for their November qualifiers against Argentina and Bolivia includes Brighton & Hove Albion playmaker Julio Enciso, Newcastle United winger Miguel Almiron, and Torino striker Antonio Sanabria, the latter of whom came off the bench to bag a second-half brace in the 2-1 victory over Venezuela last time out.

Cuiaba's Isidro Pitta was preferred from the start against La Vinotinto but after being withdrawn at half-time for the 28-year-old, looks likely to swap roles on Thursday.

A change will also be made in defence with Lanus right-back Juan Caceres suspended following an accumulation of yellow cards. Gustavo Velazquez, who plies his trade in Argentina with Newells Old Boys, could come in for the 24-year-old.

Head coach Gustavo Alfaro can also call upon Nottingham Forest winger Ramon Sosa, who spent more than two years in Argentina playing for Gimnasia and Talleres Cordoba before moving to England in the summer.

Football Odds

Back-to-back Yashin Trophy winner Emiliano Martinez is back in the international fold after being suspended for Argentina's October qualifiers and the Aston Villa goalkeeper will return between the sticks in place of Olympique Marseille shot-stopper Geronimo Rulli, who will revert to his role as back-up.

Manchester United winger Alejandro Garnacho is also back available for head coach Lionel Scaloni after injury ruled him out of the last camp.

However, there's no space for AS Roma star Paulo Dybala, who withdrew from last month's squad due to injury.

As ever, La Albiceleste will be skippered by Lionel Messi, whose club season came to a premature end on Sunday as his Inter Miami side were beaten in the MLS playoffs by Atlanta United.

Paraguay vs Argentina Odds

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Paraguay are 19/5, or a 20.8% chance, to record a first victory over Argentina since October 2016, when they triumphed 1-0 courtesy of a first-half strike from Derlis Gonzalez. The reigning World Cup and Copa America champions, meanwhile, are 7/10 to take all three points in Asuncion.

The draw is available at 9/4, both teams to score at 11/8, and over 2.5 total goals at 6/4.

Messi (6/4) heads the anytime goalscorer market, with Pitta (18/5) considered Paraguay's most likely man to find the net.

Match Result & Over/Under 2.5 Total Goals - Argentina & Under 2.5 Goals @ 2/1

If it's goals that you're after, you're probably best off avoiding World Cup qualifiers involving Paraguay. La Albirroja have been involved in just eight goals (four scored, four conceded) in 10 qualifiers - Ecuador (10) are the only other side to have seen fewer than 17.

Three of those goals actually came in Paraguay's last game, a 2-1 win over Venezuela in Asuncion, with just five in the previous nine.

They've experienced four goalless draws already this campaign, as well as five matches with exactly one goal scored - they've won 1-0 twice, and lost by that scoreline three times.

Meanwhile, Argentina's last game featured plenty of goals as they smashed Bolivia 6-0 in Buenos Aires, where they've scored 11 of their 19 goals in the group.

La Albiceleste haven't been as free-scoring on their travels, netting eight times in five qualifiers, but they've lost the same number of games (one) as at home, picking up 10 points away from Argentina.

Worryingly, their dropped points away from home have come in their last two matches, losing 2-1 to Colombia in Barranquilla in September and drawing 1-1 with Venezuela in Maturin last month.

This time last year, a trip to Asuncion wouldn't have been so daunting as Paraguay won just one of their six qualifiers in 2023 - 1-0 at home to Bolivia, who are notoriously awful away from home. La Albirroja failed to score in their other five matches which included a home stalemate with Peru and a 1-0 defeat to Colombia in their own capital.

However, after an awful Copa America campaign where they lost all three games to Colombia (1-2), Brazil (1-4) and Costa Rica (1-2), Paraguay have turned things around in World Cup qualifying, holding Uruguay and Ecuador to goalless draws away from home and beating both Brazil (1-0) and Venezuela in Asuncion.

Suddenly, the picture looks a lot brighter for Paraguay, who are sixth heading into the 11th round of fixtures, a position that would grant them automatic entry to the 2026 World Cup.

As ever with La Albirroja, Thursday's game - which spills over into Friday for those in the UK - is likely to be a closely fought affair with few goals. Four of Paraguay's five home qualifiers have seen under 2.5 total goals, while four of Argentina's five away matches have also seen two goals or fewer.

Crucially, Argentina have only failed to score once this campaign, and that was at home in a 2-0 defeat to Uruguay. La Albiceleste have scored in all five away outings and Scaloni's side will back themselves to make it six out of six in Asuncion.

As good as Paraguay have been in recent months, keeping clean sheets against Uruguay, Brazil and Ecuador, I struggle to see them completely shutting out a side led by Messi - who was only a second-half substitute in the reverse fixture - and supported by Atletico Madrid's Julian Alvarez and Inter Milan's Lautaro Martinez, who have both been in good form for their clubs of late.

Argentina only beat their next opponents 1-0 in Buenos Aires in October 2023 but Nicolas Otamendi put them ahead in the third minute of that match, meaning the hosts never had to really go for more goals, particularly as they restricted Paraguay to just four shots and only one on target.

A slender Argentina victory, without conceding, is my prediction here.

Player to Receive a Card - Junior Alonso (PAR) @ 4/1

Atletico Mineiro defender Junior Alonso has won 57 senior caps for Paraguay since making his debut in 2013, five of which have come in this World Cup qualifying campaign.

The 31-year-old can play as a centre-back or left-back, but may well end up being deployed on the left of a back three on Thursday, as he was in the reverse fixture with Argentina.

Alonso received the first of two bookings this campaign in that Buenos Aires defeat, seeing yellow in the 21st minute, with his second at home to Brazil in September incurring a one-match ban, which he served in Paraguay's goalless draw with Ecuador in Quito.

He returned to the side for the win over Paraguay last time out and looks likely to start this week, which raises the possibility of another booking against Argentina.

Alonso is yet to see red for his country but has been shown 18 yellow cards at senior level for Paraguay, 11 of which have come in World Cup qualifiers, including six in the previous campaign.

He's averaging 1.6 fouls per game in the competition and 1.4 fouls per game in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A for Atletico, for whom he has been booked twice in nine appearances.

The Cerro Porteno Academy graduate is likely to come into close contact on Thursday with Messi, who operates on the right-hand side of Argentina's attack and drifts into the middle pockets, often drawing out central defenders from their position. Messi was fouled three times by the Bolivians on October 16 and twice by the Venezuelans six days prior, and has been fouled an average of 2.7 times per game in World Cup qualifying.

Alonso was also cautioned in Paraguay's goalless draw with Argentina in Asuncion in October 2021, a match in which Messi was upended five times.

At 4/1, I think Alonso is a great price to make it three cards on the trot against La Albiceleste.

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