Palmeiras vs Botafogo Prediction: Booking bonanza in all-Brazilian CWC last-16 tie

It's an all-Brazilian affair to kick off the last 16 of the 2025 Fifa Club World Cup on Saturday (17:00 BST, DAZN/Betfred), as Palmeiras and Botafogo clash at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Below are my Palmeiras vs Botafogo predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Palmeiras defender Murilo, who started all three of his side's group games, suffered an injury in his left thigh against Inter Miami on Tuesday and was withdrawn in the 18th minute for Bruno Fuchs. Murilo is certain to miss Saturday's contest, and his tournament looks to be over. Bruno Fuchs appears likely to replace him in the starting XI.

In more positive news, midfielder Anibal Moreno, who started the goalless stalemate with FC Porto on June 15 and the 2-0 victory over Al Ahly four days later, has improved after muscle edema caused him to miss the 2-2 draw with Inter Miami.

Moreno is being closely monitored in training, but he has not yet been ruled out of Saturday's last-16 tie.

Football Odds

Palmeiras have avoided any suspensions for an accumulation of yellow cards, but Felipe Anderson, Gustavo Gomez, Raphael Veiga, Agustin Giay, Joaquin Piquerez and Richard Rios are all walking a disciplinary tightrope on Saturday, as they each picked up a booking in the group stage.

A second yellow before the semi-finals carries with it a one-match ban, so a caution for any of them against Botafogo would rule them out of the quarter-finals, should the Verdao get there.

Abel Ferreira could bring Giay and Vitor Roque back into this starting XI against Botafogo, while Paulinho and Mauricio did their chances of beginning the game no harm by coming off the bench and scoring on Tuesday.

Botafogo will be without midfielder Gregore, who picked up a needless second yellow of the campaign in the dying embers of Monday's 1-0 defeat to Atletico Madrid. Newton looks the most likely replacement for him in Renato Paiva's starting XI, having been the Portuguese head coach's first substitute against the Rojiblancos.

Ten players have started all three games for Fogo at the Club World Cup, so Paiva clearly likes to keep a settled side. That should mean minimal changes on Saturday, with only Gregore guaranteed to drop out.

Cuibano, Alexander Barboza and Joaquin Correa are all at risk of missing the quarter-finals, should Fogo advance past Palmeiras, after each picking up a yellow card in the group stage.

Palmeiras vs Botafogo Odds

Palmeiras have failed to win any of their last five games against Fogo, last tasting success in this fixture in November 2023, yet the Verdao are 11/8 favourites to triumph in regulation time on Saturday, implying a 42.1% probability of success, while they are 8/13 to win the tie by any means. Their opponents, on the other hand, are 12/5, or a 29.4% chance, to claim a victory in 90 minutes, and 6/5 just to win the tie overall.

The draw, which was a winning selection on March 30 as they played out a 0-0 in Sao Paulo, and would send the match to extra time in Philadelphia, is priced at 21/10, with both teams to score (90 mins) available at 11/10.

Vitor Roque (12/5) heads the anytime goalscorer market, with Igor Jesus (5/2) first up for Fogo.

Booking Points - 80+ @ 5/2

An all-Brazilian affair in the last 16 of a Club World Cup - we're bound to see a barrage of bookings, aren't we?

We've seen some lively encounters between the two teams over the last few years, with the last four head-to-heads all producing 60+ booking points. There were exactly 60 awarded in the Serie A goalless draw in March, with Palmeiras and Fogo in receipt of 30 booking points each (10 awarded for each yellow card).

Meanwhile, the previous meeting, in November last year, saw 85 booking points dished out - 40 to Fogo for four yellows, and 45 to Palmeiras for a couple of cautions and one straight red, with the latter amounting to 25 on its own.

Today's Football Fixtures

Palmeiras' opening match at this tournament against FC Porto produced 40 booking points, with their next, against Al Ahly, reaching 70, while Fogo's highest count was the 40 shared between them and Seattle Sounders in their first fixture.

We should see both sides up the ante on Saturday, though, in a crunch clash at Lincoln Financial Field.

I've tipped this selection once already at this year's Club World Cup, in my River Plate-Monterrey preview last weekend, and it was a comfortable winner at 9/2, with a mammoth 115 booking points dolled out between the Argentines and Mexicans.

Here's hoping for more of the same in Saturday's last-16 tie between Palmeiras and Fogo.

Bet Builder - Alex Telles (BOT), Allan (BOT) & Richard Rios (PAL) All Carded @ 11/1

Keeping my first tip in mind, let's go for a player card hat-trick for the second, and back a couple of Fogo players, Alex Telles and Allan, and one from the Verdao, Rios.

Starting with Alex Telles, the Brazilian left-back's three-card tally this season is unremarkable, but he made a whopping five fouls without a booking in Fogo's goalless draw with Palmeiras in March, and all of his offences were committed in the first half.

Three of the free-kicks he gave away were for fouls on the Verdao's right winger, Estevao, who is set to join Chelsea after the conclusion of this tournament. The 18-year-old was taken down six times in that Serie A stalemate and could cause Alex Telles more problems down that side on Saturday.

Next up, we have the former Manchester United man's teammate, ex-Everton midfielder Allan, who becomes even more important in the absence of Gregore, who is Fogo's usual cruncher in the middle of the park.

Allan has been booked three times in 16 Serie A appearances since making the move back to Brazil last year, although he's made just three starts.

The 34-year-old has begun Fogo's last two matches, against Paris Saint-Germain and Atletico Madrid, making one foul against the former and two against the latter, despite being taken off in the 59th minute against the Rojiblancos.

As well as Estevao, Fogo will have to deal with the Verdao's enforcer, Rios, and left-winger Facundo Torres, who have been fouled nine and five times, respectively, at this year's Club World Cup.

Allan, then, could be forced into a few fouls on Saturday, making him another prime candidate to go into the referee's notebook.

Speaking of Rios, I'm selecting the Colombian for the third and final leg of this Bet Builder. The 25-year-old only made one foul last time out against Inter Miami, but committed four in his side's opening game against FC Porto, and five against Al Ahly. He hasn't been cautioned for any of his fouls made so far, but was still shown a yellow in the dying embers of a 2-0 victory over the Egyptians.

Rios is averaging 2.2 fouls per game in Serie A this season and has been booked four times in nine appearances, so he's another obvious pick for a card on Saturday.

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