Palmeiras vs Al Ahly Prediction: Rios to face referee’s wrath

The first two games in Group A of the 2025 Fifa Club World Cup ended goalless, leaving everything open heading into the second round of fixtures. The first of those takes place on Thursday (17:00, DAZN) at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, where Palmeiras take on Al Ahly.

Below are my Palmeiras vs Al Ahly predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Palmeiras head coach Abel Ferreira may be considering naming an unchanged starting XI on Thursday, despite his side drawing 0-0 with FC Porto last Sunday.

Verdao were unable to breach the Portuguese club's back line in East Rutherford, but they recorded 17 shots to their opponents' 11 and were the ones pushing for all three points in the latter stages.

Football Odds

Chelsea-bound teenager Estevao was substituted in the 65th minute at MetLife Stadium last weekend, but was still awarded the 'Superior Player of the Match' award for his hour-plus efforts.

Should Ferreira opt to make a change or two, Paulinho, Raphael Veiga, Allan, Jose Lopez and Lucas Evangelista, all of whom were introduced in the second half against Porto, are likely to be at the forefront of his thinking.

Felipe Anderson and Gustavo Gomez are both walking a disciplinary tightrope after each receiving a yellow in their club's opening game - two yellows before the semi-finals results in a one-match ban.

Al Ahly are likely to be without two starters from their goalless draw with Inter Miami last Sunday. Emam Ashour was forced from the field in the 14th minute against the Herons and has since been ruled out for the rest of the tournament with a broken collarbone, while left-back Ahmed Nabil Koka, who completed the game against Lionel Messi & Co., is reportedly set to sit out his side's second match.

Koka's replacement is likely to be one of Mustafa Al-Ash, Karim Al-Dubis and Yahya Atiyah Allah, while Ahmed 'Zizo' Sayed, who came on for Ashour in the Egyptian side's group opener, is nailed on to begin Thursday's contest.

Midfielder Marwan Attia is the only Al Ahly player at risk of a suspension.

Palmeiras vs Al Ahly Odds

Palmeiras are heavy favourites to pick up their first three points of the tournament, with their price of 8/15 implying a 65.2% probability of success, while Al Ahly are 5/1, or a 16.7% chance, to get a first victory on the board.

Another draw for both is priced at 11/4, and a repeat of their 0-0 scorelines is offered at 9/1.

Former Barcelona striker Vitor Roque (6/4) heads the anytime goalscorer market, followed by teammates Lopez (13/8) and Estevao (9/5), with Taher Mohamed (9/2) first up for the Egyptians.

Player to Receive a Card - Richard Rios Montoya (PAL) @ 9/4

Palmeiras midfielder Richard Rios Montoya has been booked four times in nine league appearances this year, including in his last two competition appearances.

The 25-year-old managed to evade a booking in Verdao's Club World Cup opener, despite committing four fouls on Porto players.

Rios is averaging 2.2 fouls per game in this season's Serie A (1.9 p/g in 2024, 1.4 p/g in 2023) and 1.6 per game in the Copa Libertadores, despite two of his five appearances in the competition coming from the bench, and he has been cautioned once in continental competition this term.

Today's Football Fixtures

On Thursday, the Colombian could be tasked with containing the talents of Egypt international Zizo, who was fouled three times by Inter Miami last Sunday, despite not starting the tournament opener and being taken off in the 79th minute. The 29-year-old was the recipient of a challenge from Argentine defender Tomas Aviles, just 11 minutes after his introduction, that resulted in the opponent, eight years his junior, picking up a yellow card.

Zizo averaged 1.9 fouls won per game in the 2024/25 Egyptian Premier League with Al Ahly's rivals Zamalek (two in 2023/24, 1.9 in 2022/23), so he has a history of drawing opponents into making fouls.

I can see Rios conceding a few free-kicks for upending Zizo at MetLife Stadium, which makes the Palmeiras man a prime candidate to receive a card on Thursday.

Away Team Total Shots Over/Under +9.5 - Over 9.5 @ 4/5

Al Ahly recorded 11 shots at goal in their Group A opener against Inter Miami, with the majority (eight) arriving in the first half. Remarkably, they forced eight saves from Oscar Ustari, but were unable to beat the 38-year-old Argentine goalkeeper between the sticks.

Palmeiras, meanwhile, conceded 11 shots to Porto last Sunday, requiring their own veteran shot-stopper, 37-year-old Brazilian Weverton, to make three saves.

It's a different game for both teams on Thursday, and while too much shouldn't be read into their first matches, it's a solid indicator, at least, that Al Ahly can fashion chances, and that Palmeiras give up a few opportunities.

Given that both sides drew their openers, you would think the Egyptians and the Brazilians will be targeting all three points in their next meeting, and that should mean that, at some stage at least, there will be some attacking emphasis.

Palmeiras are big favourites to win Thursday's game, and I think it's likely they will take the lead, which would leave Al Ahly chasing the contest. Should that be the case, over 9.5 shots at just under EVS would start to look on the generous side, with the likes of Zizo and Mahmoud Trezeguet firing efforts from all angles in a bid to get their team back in proceedings.

Offers

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