Oxford vs Peterborough Prediction: Posh could struggle again at scene of April humiliation

Oxford United and Peterborough United meet in the first leg of their League 1 play-off semi-final tie at the Kassam Stadium on Saturday night (19:45, Sky Sports Football), as both sides look to take a lead heading into the return leg at London Road next Wednesday.

Read below for my Oxford vs Peterborough prediction and all the latest team news heading into this tie.

Oxford United finished the regular season in fifth after winning four of their last six games and seeing Barnsley go winless across the same number.

Peterborough, meanwhile, had to beat Bolton Wanderers by four to end the campaign in third, but could only manage a 3-3 draw at home to the Trotters, thus setting up a fourth v fifth tie against Oxford United.

The Posh won the first head-to-head between the pair earlier in the season, brushing the U's aside 3-0 at home, but it was a very different encounter at the Kassam last month as Oxford United hit them for five without reply.

Team News

Oxford United had a fully-fit squad to choose from in their final-day victory (2-1) over Exeter City last weekend, and there appear to be no fresh concerns for manager Des Buckingham to worry about ahead of Saturday.

Mark Harris will provide the threat up front after scoring 15 goals in 43 League 1 appearances this term, while Cameron Brannagan (12), Ruben Rodrigues (nine), Tyler Goodrham (eight) and Josh Murphy (six) have also weighed in heavily.

On the other side, Peterborough could be boosted by the return of Kwame Poku, who missed the final three games of the season.

The game could come too soon for Jeando Fuchs, though, with the play-off final previously mooted as a potential comeback match, should the Posh reach Wembley.

On-loan Brentford forward Michael Olakigbe made his return to the squad against Bolton after undergoing treatment at his parent club following an injury, and could make a first appearance since March 29 on Saturday.

Match Odds

The hosts are 5/4 to beat their opponents for the second time in a matter of weeks, giving them an implied win probability of 44.4%, while the visitors can be backed at 13/8 (38.1%), and the draw at 5/2.

Both teams to score is 2/5 and over 4.5 goals is 11/4.

Double chance & both teams to score - Oxford or draw & Yes @ 1/1

Oxford United have only lost twice in their last 10 games at the Kassam, and both were narrow defeats (1-2 v Leyton Orient, 0-1 vs Lincoln City). That run includes last month's thrashing of Peterborough and January's 2-2 draw with eventual league champions Portsmouth.

The Posh, meanwhile, have lost two of their last three on the road.

Famously, Ferguson's side crumbled away from home in their semi-final tie last season, losing 5-1 at Hillsborough - and eventually losing on penalties - after beating Sheffield Wednesday 4-0 in the first leg.

Getting the away fixture out the way first may be for the best this time around, and while I don't think the Posh will struggle quite as much as they did that fateful night in Sheffield, I think Oxford will apply significant pressure to try and take a lead to London Road.

I see the hosts at least taking a draw on Saturday, and though BTTS failed to land in either of their league meetings this season, both sides should fancy their chances of finding the net at the Kassam.

Only Charlton Athletic (34), Barnsley (33) and Reading (30) have been involved in more League 1 games than Peterborough (28) where both teams have scored, while Oxford are only one further back on 27.

Josh Murphy anytime goalscorer @ 18/5

The former Norwich City and Cardiff City winger has six league goals to his name this season but, intriguingly, they have all come since February, meaning he has six in his last 15 games.

Murphy hasn't found the net in his last three matches but, before this run, had scored in four of his previous seven, and his most recent strike came against Saturday's opponents, Peterborough.

At 18/5, the 29-year-old looks the value pick in the anytime goalscorer market, especially considering only Brannagain (2.7) averages more shots per game than him (2.1).

Betfred are running their famed Double Delight & Hat-trick Heaven offer on this match, meaning that if a player scores first and then nets again, you will be paid at double the odds. If he grabs a hat-trick, you will be paid at treble the odds!

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.