Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction: Elite defence can come out on top

It truly is the best time of the year for football. We’ve got crunch matches coming at you left, right and centre as the play-offs take to the stage, and on Saturday we turn our attention to League 2, where Notts County host AFC Wimbledon (20:00, Sky Sports Main Event). 

County finished one point behind the Dons in the regular season, but will hope to return to the third tier for the first time in a decade. Below you can find my Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon predictions. 

Team News

Stuart Maynard will once again rely on his two big-hitters up front to try and drag his side to Wembley. Alassana Jatta and David McGoldrick have scored 36 league goals between them this term, and finished as the second and third-highest goalscorers in the division. 

They should start as the front two in this 3-5-2, with Conor Grant likely to provide the attacking thrust from midfield. Rod McDonald, Matty Platt and Jacob Bedeau will line up as the back three in front of Alex Bass while former play-off hero Jodi Jones has returned to fitness at the right time and will be dangerous going forward from left wing-back. 

For AFC Wimbledon, manager Johnnie Jackson will hope his side can continue their strong defensive form going into the play-offs. Up top Matty Stevens has just one goal in his last 16 appearances despite scoring 21 goals in 54 games this season and will hope to end his goal drought. 

The away side should match County’s 3-5-2 up, with Marcus Browne the most likely candidate to partner the misfiring Stevens, but the real focus should be on that fantastic backline. 21-year-old Owen Goodman has had a superb season in goal on loan from Crystal Palace and will play a key role in this tie, behind a trusted back three of Riley Harbottle, Joe Lewis and Ryan Johnson. 

35-year-old Sam Hutchinson offers great experience in the middle of the park, while Josh Neufville and James Tilley may get the nod in the wing–back positions.

Notts County vs AFC Wimbledon Odds

County are priced up at 23/20 to win the first leg of this semi-final, while AFC Wimbledon are available at 5/2 to secure an important away win. A draw can be backed at 9/4 while over 2.5 goals is 11/10 having come in during 46% of Notts County’s matches this term. 

In terms of goalscorers, we are looking at Jatta and McGoldrick, both priced at 11/2 to find the net first. If you fancy both teams to score, that is up at 10/11. 

Under 1.5 goals @ 21/10 

First legs in the play-offs tend to be tight affairs, and I think that is exactly what we will see once again. 

AFC Wimbledon have conceded 10 goals fewer than any other team in League 2 this season - which is genuinely a remarkable achievement. Just 35 goals conceded over 46 games isn’t quite on the same level as that freakish Burnley team in the Championship, but it does show they are more than capable of grinding out results, with 21 clean sheets.

However, with Stevens misfiring, they aren’t a great attacking team and they’ve failed to score 15 times over the course of the season. This is a team that would have secured automatic promotion had they scored a few more goals this term, but ultimately the first goal will be crucial in this tie given their lack of attacking thrust. 

They face a County side at the other end of the scale, having scored 68 goals this season - the fifth-highest total in the season. We know what type of game we are going to get - County will dominate possession having completed the most passes in League 2 this term, and the Dons will attempt to sit in and be difficult to break down. 

I think under 1.5 goals is the way to play this, given it gives us a slight bit of leeway on either side.

AFC Wimbledon to win to nil @ 9/2

Let’s go for it. County are in poor form having won just one of their last six games, and even the matches they have won over the last couple of months have come against weak sides in the form of Newport County, MK Dons and Harrogate Town. 

There was such a wild difference between the two teams when they last met, as Wimbledon secured a 2-0 win and absolutely wiped the floor with their physically inferior opponents. I’d get on board with Wimbledon winning this tie, while I also think it is worth a punt on them to keep another clean sheet in this away leg and secure an important win. 1-0 Wimbledon can also be backed at 9/1 which feels generous. 

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