Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool Prediction: Yates to be centre of attention again

A Premier League title race clash at the City Ground in mid-January - who'd have thought it? Well, that's the reality of the situation as third-place Nottingham Forest prepare to host leaders Liverpool on Tuesday (20:00, TNT Sports 1) with just six points separating the sides, albeit the Merseyside club have played a game fewer.

Visiting boss Arne Slot will be desperate to wreak revenge on the Tricky Trees after suffering his only defeat of 2024 to Nuno Espirito Santo's charges, losing 1-0 at Anfield on September 14, but the Dutchman will have his work cut out to mastermind a victory in the East Midlands against a side looking for a seventh successive league win. Below is my Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Both teams made wholesale changes for their FA Cup third-round wins on Saturday with Nuno changing the entire starting XI from their 3-0 win at Wolves on the Monday. The Nottingham Forest head coach could revert to his lineup at Molineux, meaning the likes of Matz Sels, Nikola Milenkovic, Morgan Gibbs-White and Chris Wood will be back in from the off.

If any of the players are likely to keep their starting spots from the weekend it will probably be Morato, should Nuno operate a five-man defence, or Ryan Yates, who was so effective in Forest's 1-0 win at Anfield earlier in the campaign.

Brazilian midfielder Danilo, who suffered a serious injury on the opening day of the season in August, made his return to action on Saturday and could feature among the substitutes in midweek, but the game will come too soon for Ibrahim Sangare.

Football Odds

Jarell Quansah, Kostas Tsimikas and Diogo Jota were the only Liverpool players to keep their places on Saturday following last Wednesday's 1-0 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur in the first leg of their Carabao Cup semi-final tie. All three are expected to drop out at the City Ground for Ibrahima Konate, Andy Robertson and Luis Diaz, respectively, with only Alexander-Arnold, who was only deployed as a second-half substitute against Spurs, likely to keep his starting spot on Saturday.

Alisson Becker, Virgil van Dijk, Alexis Mac Allister, Ryan Gravenberch, Curtis Jones, Cody Gakpo and Mohamed Salah, all of whom were given the weekend off, will return to Slot's starting XI in the East Midlands.

Dominik Szoboszlai made his return from a three-game absence in the 4-0 win over League 2 Accrington Stanley but is set to be utilised from the bench on Tuesday.

Joe Gomez is Liverpool's only injury absentee, while Darwin Nunez will serve a one-match ban for an accumulation of yellow cards in the Premier League.

Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool Odds

Forest have won their last six Premier League matches and seven of their last eight, as well as seven of their previous eight at the City Ground. Still, the hosts are 9/2 to claim all three points on Tuesday, giving them an implied probability of 18.2%, while Liverpool are 8/13, or a 61.9% chance, to triumph.

The draw is priced at 16/5, both teams to score at 4/6, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/13.

Leading Premier League marksman Salah is favourite in the anytime (11/10) and first (3/1) goalscorer markets while Wood is 2/1 and 6/1 respectively.

Price Boosts - Cody Gakpo (LIV) 1+ Shots on Target, Morgan Gibbs-White (NFO) 1+ Shots on Target, Alexis Mac Allister (LIV) 2+ Fouls, Ryan Yates (NFO) 2+ Fouls @ 4/1 5/1

Betfred are offering a price boost on Gakpo and Gibbs-White to each register at least one shot on target, and Mac Allister and Yates to commit a minimum of two fouls each, too. The statistics make a good case for backing this bet with Gakpo and Gibbs-White both scoring in their last Premier League appearance and Mac Allister conceding two free-kicks against Manchester United in his last one, while Yates started Forest's 2-0 FA Cup win over Luton Town on Saturday and made three fouls.

The first three are all pretty certain starters on Tuesday while Forest captain Yates has a solid shout of breaking back into his side's starting XI in the league. The 27-year-old was a vital member of the lineup that won 1-0 at Anfield back in September, making one foul and winning three free-kicks as the Liverpool midfield, which contained Mac Allister, failed to get to grips with him. Mac Allister made two fouls that day before being hooked on the hour mark and he's averaging 1.8 per game for the Premier League season, committing at least two in his last five competition outings including a mammoth five in the 3-1 Boxing Day victory over Leicester City.

Yates (1.7 per game), meanwhile, only falls just short of Mac Allister's average and made four when Liverpool triumphed 1-0 at the City Ground in the corresponding fixture last season.

Back to the forwards, Gibbs-White is a good shout to register at least one shot on target having managed to land one in his last three matches, the most recent two of which he has scored in. The 24-year-old is averaging 0.9 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season and is one of the talismanic figures in the Forest team, so expect him to be leading the charge on Tuesday.

I can also get behind a Gakpo shot on target considering he has recorded one in his last four appearances, three of which have been in the Premier League. The 25-year-old has gone one better than Gibbs-White, scoring in his last three league outings, and four shots on target in that run have helped to raise his shots-on-target per game average to a respectable 0.6.

With Nunez suspended and Jota off the back of back-to-back starts, completing the entire match against Accrington on Saturday, Gakpo should play the majority of Tuesday's contest, heightening his chances of at least forcing the goalkeeper into a save.

Bet Builder - Under 3.5 Total Goals, Callum Hudson-Odoi (NFO) 1+ Shots on Target, Luis Diaz (LIV) 2+ Shots, Nottingham Forest Over 3.5 Corners @ 13/2

Four of the five head-to-heads between these sides since Forest's promotion to the Premier League in May 2022 have seen four or fewer goals with three, including both last year, seeing just a single strike. Forest won 1-0 at the City Ground in October 2022 and by the same scoreline at Anfield in September 2024, while Liverpool struck the only goal of the game in second-half stoppage time in the East Midlands last March.

Arsenal boast the division's best defence having conceded just 18 times but Liverpool and Forest (both 19) are right on their tails. Forest aren't the biggest scorers, though, as 12 teams have netted more times than the Tricky Trees (29), so it's not surprising to see that 80 per cent of their 20 top-flight outings this term have seen three or fewer goals (89 per cent at home).

Under 3.5 total goals has landed in Forest's last five Premier League games and I'm expecting another low-scoring encounter between these two sides on Tuesday.

Forest will back themselves to land a few punches on Liverpool, though, and former Chelsea winger Callum Hudson-Odoi is someone who knows how to hurt the Reds after coming off the bench to score the winner at Anfield earlier in the season. His only other appearance for Forest against Liverpool, at the City Ground last year, also saw him hit the target, although his effort that day was saved by visiting goalkeeper Caoimhin Kelleher.

Diaz, meanwhile, has been in inspired form in front of goal this season, scoring eight times in 18 Premier League outings (13 starts), and he was on the scoresheet in Liverpool's last league away game, the 5-0 thrashing of West Ham United on December 29 when he shot five times. His previous away game to that, a week earlier at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, saw the Colombian shoot seven times, scoring twice, and his shots per game average now stands at 2.1 per game.

Ending this Bet Builder is over 3.5 Forest corners, something that has landed in seven of their nine league games at home. Liverpool conceded a massive nine corners to Man United in their last Premier League match and also gave up seven at Spurs in December, as well as five to Newcastle United at St James' Park earlier in the month.

Offers

Build your own Bet Builder bet (3/1+) of 4+ legs on Nottingham Forest v Liverpool and get 100% of your stake back in Free Bets up to £10 if you lose. (Credited within 24 hours)

We will be Top Price on Liverpool to beat Nottingham Forest with selected bookmakers using Oddschecker for the comparison. (Available from 09:30 Tuesday 15/01)

Double Delight & Hat-Trick Heaven: Place a pre-match single bet on the first goalscorer market and get DOUBLE or TREBLE the odds if your winning First Goalscorer bet scores a 2nd and 3rd.

Place an In-Play single bet of £10 or more at odds of 1/2+ on any Premier League game on Tuesday and get £5 in Free Bets to use In-Play on Wednesday’s Premier League games. (Credited upon Bet Settlement)

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down

You can read all our latest Football Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.