Norwich vs Leeds Prediction: Goals expected at Carrow Road

The games that always deliver drama have finally arrived. The Championship play-offs are arguably the most entertaining fixtures of the entire football season, with a place in the Premier League on the line for four teams with hopes and dreams of reaching the top flight. 

For the likes of Southampton and Leeds, the pressure is on to secure a return at the first time of asking and our focus is on the Whites as Daniel Farke takes on his former club Norwich City on Sunday afternoon. 

Kick-off at Carrow Road is at midday on Sunday for this one, and the game will be shown live on Sky Sports Main Event. Below you can find my Norwich vs Leeds prediction, as the two teams meet for the first leg of what should be a pulsating encounter. 

Team News

David Wagner has been handed an unwanted issue as centre-back Shane Duffy has been charged with drink-driving after a collision on Monday night. There were no injuries after the crash, but Wagner may choose to discipline the 32-year-old ahead of this game. 

He may return to the squad, but it’s a headache the manager does not need ahead of this one. Grant Hanley would come in as his replacement, while Jon Rowe is likely to feature again off the bench as he continues his return from injury. 

Leeds have now lost their last two games and Farke has a couple of big decisions to make ahead of this one. Joel Piroe scored on the final day and has started the last two games, and with Patrick Bamford suffering from a bruised knee he is likely to start again.

Bamford and right-back Conor Roberts both missed the Southampton defeat but may be included in the squad for this one if they have got over their respective issues. Meanwhile, Archie Gray could come back in, if Farke reverts to the back four that served him well earlier in the season. 

Norwich vs Leeds Odds

Norwich are priced at 12/5 to win this game, with Leeds priced at 23/20 to win this first leg. A draw is available at 12/5, BTTS is 4/6 and over 2.5 goals is 5/6. 

Norwich to win and BTTS @ 5/1

Now, Championship first legs are notoriously cagey. Only seven of the last 30 semi-final first legs have finished with over 2.5 goals, and the last first leg to see four or more goals was West Brom vs Wolves back in 2007. So Simon, why have you backed plenty of goals and BTTS to score at Carrow Road?

Well if two teams are going to buck that trend, then it will be Norwich and Leeds. Earlier in the season, Leeds won 3-2 at Carrow Road and these two boast two of the finest attacks in the division. With Summerville, Piroe and Wilfried Gnonto, Leeds could well get at this Norwich defence. 

Meanwhile, Borja Sainz, Sargent, Jon Rowe and Gabriel Sara have been elite Championship players this term, and all of Norwich’s quality lies in attack. They’ve also got a terrific home record, having won 15 of their 23 league games so far this season. With Leeds out of form, I think the Canaries can bag a first leg win. 

Josh Sargent and Crysencio Summerville to score @ 7/1

I’m expecting goals at both ends, and I’m going to pick each team’s key attacker to find the net. Sargent is the easiest pick of the lot. He has been so good for Norwich since his return from injury and he is one of the major reasons why they have made it into the top six this term. 16 goals in 26 Championship appearances speak for itself, and he should be able to get at this frail Leeds backline. 

Meanwhile, I’m also expecting Leeds to find the net, and although he hasn’t been in the same flying form, I think the Championship’s Player of the Season can produce on the big stage. Summerville has got 19 goals from the wing this term, and should cause problems for the Norwich backline. 

Check out our other Football Betting Tips here.