Norway vs Finland Prediction: 40/1 scorecast catches the eye

With only 16 teams in the finals, the fixtures come thick and fast at the Women’s European Championship and on Sunday, Group A takes centre stage again. After beating the hosts 2-1, Norway could seal a place in quarter-finals with victory over Finland, but the same can be said of the Finns, after they edged past Iceland 1-0. 

These two meet at 17:00 on Sunday, with the game live on BBC Two and below you can find my Norway vs Finland predictions.

Team News

After an efficient first win, Norway will once again rely on their talented attacking unit of Ada Hegerberg, Caroline Graham Hansen and Frida Maanum while Chelsea’s Guro Reiten was also handed a start on the left wing in that 2-1 success.

With Hegerberg finding the net, I’d expect that quartet to remain unchanged, while Gemma Grainger will be delighted to see her captain get up and running nice and early. Atletico Madrid’s Vilde Boe Risa should continue in midfield alongside Lyon’s Ingrid Syrstad Engen, and those two will hope to have more control of this tie having conceded possession to Switzerland on a regular basis. 

Former Everton defender Maren Mjelde went off after an hour, and she could be replaced by Juventus’ Mathilde Harviken from the start. That should be the only change that Grainger makes to her XI. 

Meanwhile, Finland could name an unchanged XI after their 1-0 win. A red card for Iceland in the second half gave them the initiative, and it was Malmo’s Katariina Kosola who struck the winner. She will start again on the left, with West Ham’s Oona Siren likely to play again on the right wing. 

Captain Linda Sallstrom will lead the line at 36, supported by Sanni Franssi or Oona Sevenius. Anna Koivunen was superb in goal and will target another clean sheet with Natalia Kuikka impressing in the back line. Leicester’s Jutta Rantala will hope for more minutes from the bench. 

Norway vs Finland Odds

Norway are 4/6 to win this game giving them an implied win probability of 60% heading into this group game. Finland meanwhile are 9/2 to secure the win, while a draw can be backed at 11/4. 

Over 2.5 goals is 11/10, BTTS is 1/1 and Hegerberg is the favourite to score first at 7/2.

Norway to win -1 handicap @ 9/5

I think Befred’s traders have priced this game up fairly, despite the fact that both teams won their opening matches. It was somewhat of a surprise to see Finland get all three points in their first match, but they were only able to do so because of that Icelandic red card. Despite playing against 10, they still lost the xG battle 1.31 to 0.76 and that doesn’t bode to well as they take on the strongest side in this group. 

Norway have so much attacking talent as I have already mentioned, and Hegerberg will want to add to her goal tally, having also missed a penalty in the opener. Norway created an xG of 1.90 in comparison to Switzerland’s 1.16 and as a result, should enjoy a far more comfortable win over weaker opposition. 

Today's Football Fixtures

I’m big on Norway this summer, and this one could see them lay down a marker. 

Scorecast - Ada Hegerberg to score first and Norway 3-0 Finland @ 40/1

I do think this is an opportunity to target a big win, as I can’t see Finland scoring. Their chance creation was poor in their opening match and they’ve only managed three goals in their last three games in total. 

Against stronger opposition I can’t see them troubling Norway, while we have to back Hegerberg to score first. She’s now got 50 goals in 92 matches for her country, and would have bagged a brace against the hosts had she converted that penalty. A 3-0 win, with Hegerberg scoring first, could deliver for us at a big price. 

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