Northern Ireland vs Bulgaria Prediction: Another stalemate for the hosts?

Northern Ireland welcome Bulgaria to Windsor Park on Tuesday (19:45, YouTube), looking to build on the goalless draw they shared with Belarus on Saturday. Michael O'Neill's side have picked up four points from their first three matches in the Uefa Nations League, and they are back on home soil, where they tend to perform better.

Bulgaria are unbeaten in their first three fixtures and they did defeat the hosts in the reverse fixture last month in what was a slender 1-0 victory. Below you will find my Northern Ireland vs Bulgaria prediction, including the latest match odds and team news.

Northern Ireland vs Bulgaria Odds

Northern Ireland are 5/6 to win this match, which gives them a theoretical chance of 54.5%. Bulgaria are valued at 18/5 to take the three points, giving them an implied probability of 21.7%. The draw can be backed at 11/5 (31.3%).

Both teams to score is on offer at 6/5 and over 2.5 goals is marketed at 11/8.

Kiril Despodov was the sole goalscorer when the two sides met last month. He is priced at 9/1 to open the scoring, or 18/5 to score anytime.

Football Odds

Team News

Northern Ireland are without goalkeepers Bailey Peacock-Farrell and Conor Hazard due to injury. Pierce Charles was handed his debut against Belarus last time out and he should continue in between the sticks here, while his brother Shea Charles, will operate in the midfield.

Striker Lee Bonis earned his first cap against Belarus after coming on in the second half. The ADO Den Haag front man will be hoping for more minutes at home against Bulgaria.

He will be competing with Callum Marshall and Jamie Reid to start up front. The latter has returned to the squad after a blood clot saw him sidelined for the September international camp.

Liverpool's Conor Bradley captained the side at the weekend, and the right-back has been arguably the Green and White Army's standout player in the tournament so far.

For Bulgaria, Leeds United midfielder Ilia Gruev is out of action due to a serious knee injury. This means Valentin Antov, Georgi Kostadinov and Ivaylo Chochev will be fighting for spots in the engine room on Tuesday night.

At the top end of the pitch, captain Despodov should support Aleksandar Kolev, although the latter is yet to get off the mark for his country after going nine caps without the goal.

Despodov's winner in the reverse fixture was his 15th strike for the Lions. The PAOK winger has scored Bulgaria's last two goals in the Nations League, so he will be heading into this game with plenty of confidence.

Draw @ 11/5

The hosts always seem to find another gear when playing at home and they have won their last three matches on home soil to nil. It is an impressive run that they are on but I think it will come to an end here.

Bulgaria are a tough side to beat and they have drawn six of their last eight matches in all competition. This has me believe that a draw is likely for this contest, which wouldn't be a bad result for either side heading into the last round of fixtures in November.

Northern Ireland are lacking a prolific goalscorer, and while they are improving, this is ultimately stopping them from taking the next step. This has been a tightly-contested group with not much to separate the teams, and I think this will be the case at Windsor Park.

One goal was the difference in Bulgaria when they met last month and due to the fact that Northern Ireland fare better when playing at home, I think they have what it takes to take a point in this occasion.

Under 2.5 goals @ 8/15

With that in mind, I think another smart selection for this match would be to back under 2.5 goals. There wasn't much to separate the two teams last month, and I am expecting another close contest on Tuesday.

Under 2.5 goals has been a winning selection in all six of the Nations League matches played between these sides so far, so I think there will be a shortage of goals once again.

Northern Ireland were strong defensively against Belarus last time out and they will have been delighted with the clean sheet away from home, so they will be eager to record another shutout against Bulgaria. They have also conceded just the one goal so far, which will have pleased O'Neill.

Bulgaria's back line are also tricky customers, and they are yet to concede in the Nations League. The hosts will be looking to change that, but even if they do break through, I don't think they will be free-scoring.

Offers

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