Northampton vs Birmingham Prediction: Stansfield to strike against the Cobblers again

It's almost party time for Birmingham City as they are very close to securing promotion from League 1. The Blues sit 14 points clear at the summit and have responded well to their 3-1 defeat at Bolton Wanderers on March 4. They have had back-to-back games at home in which they defeated Lincoln City and Stevenage. Next up is a trip to Sixfields to face Northampton Town on Saturday (15:00).

Northampton are one of the teams to have taken points off the league leaders this season. The Cobblers salvaged a draw late on when the two teams met at St Andrew's back in November. They have had a change in the dugout since then, though, with Kevin Nolan the man in charge this time around. Read on for my Northampton vs Birmingham predictions, aided by the latest match odds and team news.

Northampton vs Birmingham Odds

Northampton have won just one of their past four home games in the league and they are 11/2 to inflict a fourth defeat of the season onto Birmingham.

Two of the Cobblers' last three outings in the third tier have ended in a draw. The stalemate, which was also the result in the reverse fixture with the Blues, has been the outcome in three of the visitors' previous five away trips in League 1. The draw is available at 11/4, which has an implied probability of 26.7%.

Birmingham are 4/7 to come away with the three points, which they have accomplished in four of their past five games. Each of those victories saw them record a clean sheet, so better value can be had in backing them to win to nil at 13/10 (43.5%).

Both teams to score has been a successful bet in each of the hosts' past five fixtures in the league, and BTTS can be backed at 6/5.

Football Odds

Team News

Northampton cannot call upon attacker Tyler Roberts on Saturday, with the Birmingham loanee unable to face his parent club. Liam Shaw is still in the treatment room after picking up a problem on February 25.

There are hopes that the Cobblers will soon be able to call upon the services of Luke Mbete, on loan from Manchester City. The defender has been out of action since October. Nolan gave this update on March 7: “Luke has been out for a long time and like we did with Ali Koiki we are just building him up.

“We are not going to force him in and we are working closely with Manchester City to make sure he gets the time to recover properly.

“He’s working hard and I’m hoping he’s not too far off being back in the squad, we may even see him in the next week or so.”

Birmingham are likely to be without the services of Ethan Laird, who has been out of action since the victory over Wycombe Wanderers on March 1.

In a season in which opportunities have been lacking, Iceland international Alfons Sampsted started his first league game at right-back against Stevenage on Tuesday, delivering a strong performance. After the game, he hinted that his loan move looks to become a permanent one in the summer.

Lyndon Dykes (calf), Lee Buchanan and Scott Wright (both knee) are long-term absentees for the visitors. Taylor Gardner-Hickman is not expected back until after the international break because of a knock, while boss Chris Davies said that Emil Hansson was taken off at half-time against Stevenage "as a precaution."

Birmingham to win to nil @ 13/10

The form and the reverse fixture suggests that BTTS looks likely at Sixfields, but for most of this campaign, Birmingham have rarely been troubled defensively. Yes, they conceded three at Bolton, the first time that has happened this term, but the difference being that Bailey Peacock-Farrell was in net that day.

Ryan Allsop returned between the sticks against Lincoln and the Blues have put two more clean sheets on the board. There is a huge difference with him in net. With his composure on the ball, and his role as a third centre-back in possession, Birmingham are so secure at the back, and the Cobblers will be disappointed that the number one returned to action swiftly.

The equaliser which Northampton scored at St Andrew's came from a combination of Birmingham errors which looked like a goal out of their relegation campaign in 2023/24. Fortunately, such mistakes have been few and far between this year, and now we're at the business end, the Blues will want to wrap up promotion quickly.

They have a Wembley trip to look forward to in April, but it looks to be a hectic schedule for the league leaders. Ideally, they'd want promotion sorted so that their stars can be rested for the Vertu Trophy Final with Peterborough United.

A win against Northampton is a step in the right direction and I'm confident we will see them come away with another win without conceding.

Jay Stansfield anytime goalscorer @ 11/8

A frequent tip from me this season, and rightly so as Jay Stansfield is currently the second-highest scorer in League 1 this season with 16 goals. The division's record signing has gone three league games without a goal for Birmingham, but this feels like the sort of game in which he will get back on the scoresheet.

He will be feeling confident ahead of this contest having scored against Northampton already this campaign. Kieran Dowell may have assumed penalty duties in recent games but I think we could see Stansfield get back amongst the goals from open play in NN5.

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