Newcastle United vs Arsenal Bet Builder Tips: Gunners to rack up the shots and corners

The pressure is on Arsenal at St James' Park on Wednesday (20:00, Sky Sports Main Event) as they bid to overturn a two-goal deficit against Newcastle United and book their place in next month's Carabao Cup final at Wembley Stadium. The Magpies won the first leg 2-0 at the Emirates Stadium last month thanks to a goal apiece from Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon, leaving the Gunners with a mountain to climb on Tyneside this week.

Below are my Newcastle United vs Arsenal Bet Builder tips as I draw up a 40/1 shot comprised of five selections which suggest a one-sided game will develop - but will it be enough for the visitors to claw their way back into the tie?

Football Odds

Newcastle United vs Arsenal Odds

Arsenal Over 549.5 Passes

Context is crucial here as Arsenal need to score twice, and keep out Newcastle at the other end, to at least force extra time in this cup tie. The Gunners have recorded a greater share of possession in their last four head-to-heads with the Magpies and were dominant in that statistic in the first leg last month, enjoying 70 per cent of the ball - 80 per cent just in the second half where they were two goals down for the majority of it.

Therefore, I see Mikel Arteta's side having just as much, if not more, of the ball on Wednesday, as they look to plot a way past what is likely to be a stubborn Newcastle defence. Of course, Eddie Howe's charges are at home this time around, but in their November league meeting at St James' which they won 1-0 thanks to a 12th-minute strike from Isak, the Magpies had just 36 per cent possession, and Arsenal made 502 passes.

The Gunners have made at least 500 passes in their last three games against Newcastle and in two of them they went over 550, including 572 in January's first leg.

Given the current game state, over 549.5 passes looks achievable for Arsenal on Wednesday. Of course, should the north London club burst into an early three-goal lead, 550 passes could begin to look difficult, but I don't see such a scenario playing out, and instead I think they will still be looking for a goal or two in the second half, with the Magpies happy to sit off and soak up the pressure as long as they are in charge of the tie.

Arsenal Over 7.5 Corners

Along the same sort of lines, I'm happy to back Arsenal to take at least eight corners in midweek, something they have achieved in three of their last four meetings with Newcastle.

The Gunners won 11 corners in last month's first leg, nine in a 4-1 victory over the Magpies at the Emirates last February, and 11 in a 1-0 defeat on Tyneside in November 2023.

Arsenal have developed a reputation as corner kick merchants, taking the third most in the Premier League at an average of 6.5 per game, and they've certainly been effective from such situations, scoring more goals from corners than any other side in the English top flight.

Arteta's side have taken 54 corners across their last six matches, averaging nine per game in that period, and considering they need to score at least twice on Wednesday, we should see them fire off plenty of shots, forcing plenty of saves and blocks from the hosts, which could well lead to a deluge of corners.

Gabriel Magalhaes (ARS) 2+ Shots

When you think of Arsenal and corners, your mind is immediately drawn to their Brazilian centre-back, Gabriel Magalhaes, who has established a reputation as the Premier League's most prolific defender in front of goal.

The 27-year-old has already scored five goals this season, three in the Premier League where he is averaging 0.9 shots per game, one in the Uefa Champions League (1.1 shots per game), and one in the FA Cup (two shots in regulation time v Man United, another in extra time).

Gabriel took aim three times in the first leg against Newcastle and if Arsenal win eight corners, and several free-kicks in the final third, on Wednesday, it's very possible that he will try his luck at least twice in a bid to get his side back in the tie.

Declan Rice (ARS) 2+ Shots

I'm also backing Gabriel's teammate, England midfielder Declan Rice, to shoot at least twice. The 26-year-old only shot once in the first leg but is averaging 1.1 shots per game in this season's Premier League and is a player that usually rises to the occasion, so I can see him posing a threat from inside or outside the box, either by making late runs into the penalty area or by letting fly from distance, which he is more than capable of doing with a fair amount of accuracy.

Rice shot twice at St James' in December and also registered two efforts on Tyneside in last season's league meeting, showing he's never let the hostility of the stadium put him off before. With Arsenal two goals down in this tie, expect the former West Ham United captain to lead the charge on Wednesday.

Bruno Guimaraes (NEW) 2+ Fouls

With Joelinton an injury doubt in midweek, even more responsibility will be placed upon the shoulders of Newcastle's midfield maestro Bruno Guimaraes, who was suspended for the first-leg trip to north London.

The Brazilian is a crucial component of Howe's side, drawing the most fouls (81) in the English top flight this season and directly contributing to eight strikes (two goals, six assists).

He also plays an important role out of possession, sometimes acting as their deepest midfielder, although a shift in Sandro Tonali's position recently has given him greater freedom going forward.

In some ways, that actually marks Guimaraes out as more likely to commit fouls as he is pressing higher up the pitch, looking to steal the ball back as quickly as possible. With Joelinton potentially sidelined, expectations of him to be aggressive in the final third will only increase.

The 27-year-old has only started once in this season's Carabao Cup but that was in the last round against Brentford and he gave away two free-kicks in that 3-1 victory on home soil, while he also committed two fouls in Newcastle's first game of the tournament at Nottingham Forest after coming on as a 15th-minute substitute for Joe Willock.

Guimaraes always seems to be up for it against Arsenal, making at least two fouls in each of his last five appearances against the Gunners, receiving two yellow cards for his indiscretions, so in Newcastle's biggest game of the season so far, two fouls on Wednesday feels highly likely.

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