Netherlands vs Malta Prediction: Some value in the handicap

Having beaten Finland on Friday, the Netherlands will hope to make it two wins out of two in Group G when they host Malta on Tuesday night (19.45). The Dutch are playing catch up after their Nations League participation but have made a positive start to proceedings as they look to improve on their quarter-final showing in Qatar. 

Below you can find my Netherlands vs Malta predictions featuring team news and betting tips.

Football Odds

Team News

Ronald Koeman may choose to rest and rotate for this fixture, which his side should win relatively comfortably. That means Virgil van Dijk, Frenkie De Jong and Memphis Depay may all be left out, with Micky van de Ven, Xavi Simons and Wout Weghorst hoping for more minutes. 

That trio came off the bench against Finland in the 2-0 win, while there is a lot of excitement around 19-year-old Ajax defender Jorrel Hato. He could well be given a rare start for his country, along with Brighton’s Mats Wieffer..

Malta secured a 0-0 draw at home to Lithuania last time out and so we should see an unchanged XI from Emilio De Leo. That means Notts County winger Jodi Jones will form part of the front three, alongside the Mbong brothers, Paul and Joseph. 

Henry Bonello will target another clean sheet behind a back four that includes Jamie Carragher’s son James, and Enrico Pepe, who currently plays his football for Maltese outfit Gzira United. 

Netherlands vs Malta Odds

As you’d expect, the home side are massive favourites to win this game, priced at 1/66 to take the three points. That gives them an implied win probability of 98%, while Malta can be backed at 50/1.

A draw is 18/1, over 2.5 goals is 2/9 and BTTS is 3/1. Memphis Depay is just 1/2 to find the net during the 90, and 11/4 to score first. 

Malta +4 handicap @ 9/10 

This has a feeling of a post-season match that a lot of the Dutch players won’t be too bothered about in my opinion. Of course they want to win the game, and they should do that relatively comfortably, but I can’t see them turning the screw against a Maltese outfit that has proven itself to be fairly resolute lately. 

The Netherlands should make loads of changes for this one, which could see a disjointed performance, and even though most punters would back a large home win, I don’t see it that way. Malta kept a clean sheet last time out at home, and had only conceded three goals in the three matches prior to that - despite having a man sent off in each of those fixtures. 

They have to keep XI men on the pitch here to stand any chance of a respectable result, but I believe giving them a four-goal headstart in the handicap is more than enough to find ourselves a winner. The Dutch should win to nil, but this offers far better value. 

Xavi Simons to score anytime @ 1/1

The RB Leipzig man was left out of the XI last time out, but he is one of Koeman’s key men as we look forward to the World Cup. As a result, I think he will start this game, and offers the best value for a goal out of the Dutch players. 

He’s managed 10 goals in 25 Bundesliga appearances this term in a season that was blighted with injury, but that’s still a good return for the 22-year-old. Simons should be able to make a big impression at the World Cup next summer, providing he can stay fit. 

Offers

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