Netherlands vs Hungary Prediction: No festive feeling for the Magyars as Reijnders flies in Amsterdam

With Germany seemingly running away with top spot in Uefa Nations League Group A3, the race is on for second place between the Netherlands and Hungary, who are level on five points ahead of a Saturday (19:45) showdown at the Johan Cruyff Arena in Amsterdam. The sides drew 1-1 in Budapest last month, meaning a win for either this weekend would confirm a top-two finish courtesy of a superior head-to-head record.

Below is my Netherlands vs Hungary prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Frenkie de Jong was substituted at half-time of Barcelona's 1-0 defeat to Real Sociedad on Sunday, sparking fears that his comeback to the Netherlands national team after 14 months out of the picture could be dashed. However, the 27-year-old midfielder has been passed fit to feature this weekend.

Memphis Depay has impressed since joining Brazilian giants Corinthians but his form hasn't convinced Ronald Koeman to call him up for the first time since Euro 2024.

Manchester City defender Nathan Ake has also been overlooked despite returning to action last month, although he has been left on the Citizens' bench by Pep Guardiola for the past two games. Tottenham Hotspur defender Micky van de Ven, meanwhile, is injured.

However, Ajax defender Devyne Rensch and PSV Eindhoven winger Noa Lang are back in the international fold after lengthy absences.

Football Odds

Hungary head coach Marco Rossi suffered a blow to his plans earlier this week following the withdrawal of AFC Bournemouth left-back Milos Kerkez due to injury. Bolton Wanderers wing-back Szabolcs Schon has replaced the 21-year-old.

Number one goalkeeper Peter Gulacsi has also pulled out of the squad. The RB Leipzig shot-stopper's place between the sticks will be taken by Ferencvaros' Denes Dibusz.

Martin Adam (Asteras Tripolis) and Krisztofer Horvath (Ujpest) also miss out after being selected last month. The duo have been replaced by Zsombor Gruber (Ferencvaros) and Levente Szabo (Eintracht Braunschweig).

National team stalwarts Willi Orban (RB Leipzig), Adam Nagy (Spezia), Dominik Szoboszlai (Liverpool) and Rolland Sallai (Galatasaray) are all included in Rossi's squad for this month's fixtures against the Netherlands and Germany.

Netherlands vs Hungary Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Netherlands vs Hungary page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

The Netherlands are 4/11 to triumph on Saturday, giving the hosts an implied win probability of 73.3%, while Hungary are 7/1, or a 12.5% chance, to take all three points.

The draw is priced at 4/1, both teams to score at 4/5, and over 2.5 total goals at 8/15.

Netherlands winger Cody Gakpo heads the anytime (13/10) and first (9/2) goalscorer market, with Barnabas Varga considered Hungary's most likely in both, at 100/30 and 11/1, respectively.

Anytime Goalscorer - Tijjani Reijnders (NED) @ 11/4

What a few weeks it's been for Tijjani Reijnders, who has scored four goals in his last four games. The AC Milan midfielder bagged a brace in his side's 3-1 win over Club Brugge in the Uefa Champions League on October 22 before netting the only goal of the contest in a 1-0 victory at Monza on November 2. Reijnders followed up that strike with a stunning effort in Milan's 3-1 Champions League triumph over Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu three days later.

The 26-year-old's goalscoring run came to an end last Saturday as Cagliari kept him off the scoresheet in a 3-3 thriller at Unipol Domus.

Nevertheless, he should arrive into the Netherlands' next assignment full of confidence following his goalscoring exploits over the last month.

His form has been even more impressive when you consider his poor start to October. After playing the duration of Milan's defeats to Bayer Leverkusen (1-0) and Fiorentina (2-1), Reijnders started his national side's 1-1 draw with Hungary in Budapest on November 11 and their 1-0 defeat to Germany in Munich three days later, receiving a yellow card and being hooked at half-time in the latter. Reijnders was then sent off 29 minutes into Milan's 1-0 win over Udinese on October 19.

He's shown tremendous powers of recovery to bounce back from such adversity and should be nailed on to start in De Oranje's midfield on Saturday alongside Liverpool's Ryan Gravenberch. Like the Reds star, Reijnders does plenty of work inside his own third, working hard to win the ball back before dancing through opposition players.

However, where they differ is that Reijnders has proven himself as a goal threat - Gravenberch less so.

Reijnders only has one goal in 10 Serie A appearances this season - he scored three in his debut Serie A campaign in 2023/24 - but has struck three times in four Champions League outings, including one against the reigning champions in Madrid, highlighting his big-game prowess, which has also been evident in the Nations League.

The former AZ Alkmaar star scored in back-to-back UNL games against Bosnia & Herzegovina and Germany in September as the Netherlands won 5-2 and drew 2-2, respectively.

Events didn't go to plan for the player or team last time out but at home to a Hungary side that shipped five goals away to Germany in September, Reijnders looks a good bet to get back in the goalscoring groove for his country.

Bet Builder - Netherlands to Win, Cody Gakpo (NED) 1+ Shots on Target, Denzel Dumfries (NED) 1+ Shots, Over 23.5 Total Shots, Each Team Over 9.5 Booking Points @ 3/1

The first leg of this Bet Builder requires the Netherlands to claim all three points, as they did in the first home game of their Nations League campaign, beating Bosnia 5-2 at the Philips Stadion in Eindhoven. Things weren't as straightforward against Germany in Amsterdam last month as they had to come from behind to draw 2-2, but it was still a respectable result against a strong opponent, and France (2-1 in October 2023) are the only team to have beaten them at home since June 2023.

Hungary, meanwhile, have only won once away from home - in front of spectators - since beating Germany 1-0 in Leipzig in September 2022, although that did come last month as they downed Bosnia 2-0 in Zenica.

Ultimately, the Magyars are nowhere near as formidable on their travels as they are at home, as shown in their 5-0 Dusseldorf drubbing at the hands of the Germans in September. The Dutch should have enough quality within their ranks to get the job done here, especially as the visitors are without two of their biggest stars - Gulacsi and Kerkez.

Next up is a shot on target for Gakpo, who is averaging 0.8 shots on target per game in the Nations League. He shot twice in Budapest last month, forcing a save from Dibusz with his second effort, and has scored in his last three Liverpool starts, netting four times in total - two away to Brighton & Hove Albion in the Carabao Cup, one at home to the same opponent in the Premier League, and one in the Reds' 4-0 thrashing of Bayer Leverkusen in the Champions League.

The 25-year-old hasn't scored in his last three international outings, last finding the net for the Netherlands in their 5-2 win over Bosnia on September 7, so he will be desperate to get back in the goals for his country against Hungary. I think backing him for a shot on target is probably the wisest move, however.

Next, I've picked Inter Milan wing-back Denzel Dumfries to fire off at least one shot on Saturday. The 28-year-old rescued a point for the Dutch in their 1-1 draw with the Magyars last month, scoring with his only shot of the match in the 83rd minute.

Dumfries is averaging 1.2 shots in this season's Nations League, shooting once away to Bosnia, twice at home to Germany - where he struck another equalising goal - and once away to the group leaders, in addition to his one shot in Budapest.

He's likely to maraud down the right-hand side again on Saturday and should find joy without Kerkez there to mark him.

There were only 21 shots exchanged between Hungary and the Netherlands last time - five for the hosts, 16 for the visitors - but I'm expecting more efforts this weekend in a winner-takes-all showdown.

The Netherlands' first home game against Bosnia produced 32 shots (28 for De Oranje) and their second with Germany saw 32 (11 for Koeman's side), while Hungary's trips to Germany and Bosnia produced 29 (six for the Magyars) and 24 (12 each), respectively.

Lastly, I'm backing each team to receive over 9.5 booking points. With Betfred, a yellow card amounts to 10 booking points, so we only need a caution on either side to land this leg of the Bet Builder.

This was easily achieved in last month's meeting in Budapest as Hungary were awarded 20 booking points for two yellows, while a couple of bookings for Liverpool and De Orange captain Virgil van Dijk - resulting in a red card - saw the visitors receive 35 booking points (20 for a red).

Offers

Place an In-Play single bet of £10 or more at odds of 1/2+ on any Nations League game on Friday and get £5 in Free Bets to use In-Play on Saturday’s Nations League games. (Credited upon Bet Settlement)

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