Netherlands vs France Prediction: Mbappe absence to prove costly

 | Thursday 20th June 2024, 11:20am

Thursday 20th June 2024, 11:20am

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Two European heavyweights in the Netherlands and France meet at the Red Bull Arena on Friday night (20:00, live on BBC One), for a right to guarantee progression from Group D to the knockout rounds.

Both nations won their opening encounter and one side can take control of the group with a victory here. Read on for my Netherlands vs France prediction, as well as the latest match odds and team news.

Netherlands vs France Betting Tips

  • Draw @ 23/10
  • Wout Weghorst to score anytime @ 16/5
  • Correct Score - 1-1 @ 11/2

As soon as the draw for the Euro 2024 group stage was made, this fixture immediately stood out, and truth be told, would be more fitting for a semi-final clash. As mentioned in the introduction, both sides made winning starts on matchday one, without being at their very best.

Both nations have ambitions of going all the way this summer, and Friday’s contest gives us a chance to see the pair go head-to-head with three points - and qualification to the knockout stages - on the line.

Euro 2024 Odds

Team News

Brian Brobbey has returned to training after missing the victory over Poland due to a hamstring problem, and there are no additional injury concerns for Oranje.

The likes of Jeremie Frimpong and Donyell Malen looked dangerous off the bench last time out so could be rewarded with a place in the XI, as could Wout Weghorst, who scored the winning goal in Sunday's triumph.

The biggest injury news for France is the likely absence of Kylian Mbappe, who was left sporting a bloody nose and shirt after clashing with Kevin Danso. Olivier Giroud has been struggling with a groin injury but should be fit enough to replace the ex-Paris Saint-Germain attacker in the starting lineup.

Netherlands vs France Odds

The Netherlands are 11/5, which implies that they have a 31.3% chance of winning the game. France are 13/10, and the draw is currently priced up at 23/10.

Both teams to score is odds-on at 8/11, while Giroud and Memphis Depay are joint-favourites to break the deadlock at 11/2, assuming that Mbappe misses the game.

Draw @ 23/10

The Netherlands struggled to create meaningful chances against Poland, but they still managed to get off 21 shots and the introduction of Weghorst from the bench also gave their game another dimension.

The two sides met in qualifying and France won both games, notching an aggregate score of 6-1 in the process. However, the Dutch may fancy their chances more this time around, especially if Mbappe is absent. The Real Madrid forward scored four of Les Bleus’ six goals against Oranje in qualifying, so his likely absence could level the playing field.

France still boast a wealth of quality in attack in Randal Kolo Muani, Ousmane Dembele, Marcus Thuram, Olivier Giroud and Kingsley Coman.

Yet France’s system has been built to get the best out of Mbappe, and Didier Deschamps could err on the side of caution without their star man. The Netherlands will be more confident in containing Les Bleus' attack without Mbappe, too.

Draw at 23-10

Wout Weghorst to score anytime @ 16/5

The former Manchester United striker was the hero off the bench for the Netherlands last time out, and I think Ronald Koeman could reward the 31-year-old with a start here.

Memphis Depay failed to convince leading the line against Poland, and Weghorst provides the Dutch with a focal point, which could be useful given the physicality of France’s centre-backs.

At 16/5, I think he's worth backing to find the net in 90 minutes.

Wout Weghorst to score anytime at 16-5

Correct Score - 1-1 @ 11/2

In terms of a score prediction, I'm going for a 1-1 draw.

It would be harsh to describe France as a one-man team, but I think the absence of Mbappe is a huge one for Les Bleus here. The Netherlands will be confident of avoiding defeat here, not having to deal with the pace of the Real Madrid forward.

Correct Score at 11-2

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Betfred are running their famed Double Delight & Hat-trick Heaven Pre-Match offer on this match, meaning that if a player scores first and then nets again, you will be paid at double the odds. If he grabs a hat-trick, you will be paid at treble the odds!

You can read all our latest Euro 2024 Betting Tips at our dedicated Betfred Insights content hub.

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